Wild West: Goalie Gripes

Doran Libin

2015-01-12

KariLehtonen

 

Three of the most challenging goaltending situations in the Western Conference.

 

Goalies, much like the stereotypical Russian NHLer, can be quite the enigmas. The wild ride that Braden Holtby has been on over the last two and a half seasons is symbolic of this. In 2012 Holtby took over the starting job in Washington with a .920 save percentage in 35 starts. Last season Holtby lost the starting job for much of December and looked completely lost until March. There were rumours of a giant brain bug name Olaf Kolzig doing a number on his game and in turn his confidence. This year with the arrival of Barry Trotz and Mitch Korn in Washington Holtby appears to have found his game. Not all the variability in a goalie's game can be explained so easily. Often it is just a baffling turn of events resulting in a giant shift from season to season or within a season.

 

Kari Lehtonen

 

This season started well for Kari Lehtonen with wins in five of his first six starts but it quickly became a disaster. Lehtonen posted a .905 save percentage in his first 20 games, a full point below the league average. At the more than 30 shots per game Dallas allowed during that stretch that equates to an extra goal allowed every three games. During those 20 games Dallas allowed almost six shots per game from high percentage shooting areas. Lehtonen stopped 75% of those shots, meaning that Dallas' opponents were scoring three goals every two games on those shots alone. The high number of shots in dangerous areas is not unusual for Lehtonen playing behind the porous Dallas defense but the low save percentage is. A 75% save percentage in the high percentage shooting areas is five to six points lower than Lehtonen has had in any of the last four seasons.

 

Dallas has seen its fortunes begin to turn around since the middle of December as Dallas won eight of nine from December 13 to January 3. In the 11 games Lehtonen appeared in around that time he posted a 92.36% save percentage, almost a point above the league average. The Dallas defense also improved markedly cutting their shots against per 60 minutes to 27.7. They also allowed a shot less per game in high shooting percentage areas with Lehtonen stopping close to 84% of those shots. Further evidence of Lehtonen's improved play is that he won nine of 11 with six of those 11 games being quality starts. To put this in perspective Lehtonen has quality starts in 16 of 34 games, 11 of those quality starts have come in 17 games, the six at the beginning of the year and the recent 11 game stretch. Basically Lehtonen's season has been a roller coaster with two big rises on either side of a massive drop.

 

Lehtonen has not traditionally been a goalie prone to long spells of sub-par goaltending. For the eight years of his career for which hockey-reference.com has calculated quality start percentages Lehtonen has a quality start in 57% of his starts. There is also reason to believe that with Dallas' recent trend of allowing significantly fewer shots Lehtonen will continue to post better numbers. The positive here is that it really does not matter how poorly Lehtonen plays because there is no challenger in Dallas. The alternatives, Anders Lindback and Jussi Rynnas, are both train wrecks and are better suited for the AHL and probably Europe. As it is the Stars will give Lehtonen every opportunity to resuscitate this drowning victim of a season.

 

Minnesota

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