What can Kyle Okposo bring fantasy owners for production in the 2015-2016 season?

****

The 2015-16 season will turn out to be extremely pivotal for New York Islanders forward Kyle Okposo. Coming off a second straight injury-riddled season that saw him miss 22 games due to a detached retina, and subsequent trade rumors around the NHL Entry Draft, Okposo still managed to score 51 points in 60 games. Last season’s point totals, coupled with the 69 in 71 games he tallied during the 2013-14 campaign, makes him a valuable commodity come draft day. And, there is also this: he’s due to hit unrestricted free agency after this season.

But where do you draft him? Is he a Top 50-60 Fantasy Player? Most importantly, will he continue to log heavy minutes riding shotgun to all-world center John Tavares? Or, will New York look to transition some of their younger players into top forward minutes with Okposo’s pending UFA status? Plenty of questions, plenty of answers for Kyle Okposo’s fantasy value. Let’s investigate.

Over the last two seasons, his most productive by far during his career, Okposo has played virtually non-stop with Tavares: Let’s look at the numbers for those years using the Dobber Sports Line Combination tool:

2014-15

2013-14

                    And the production breakdown during the past two seasons is as follows:

2014-15:

2013-14:

That’s a lot, a real lot. A glutton if you will. Over two seasons, I counted Tavares being on the ice for a total of 81.8% of Okposo’s time on ice. That’s joined-at-the-hip type numbers. And clearly, with 120 points in 131 games (.92/game), Okposo has made the most of his time playing with a guy that will arguably be a top-6 pick in just about every fantasy draft.

Another number I liked while researching Okposo is that he averaged a career-high 43.5% offensive zone starts during five on five play (Tavares was at 45.8%); these guys are on the ice with plenty of offensive chances, in all conditions, so production simply seems inevitable. Okposo likes to shoot the puck as well, as his 195 SOG’s in 60 games would have come out to 266 in an 82 game season, eclipsing his career high of 249 set in 2009-10. Throw in 35.3% of his point total coming on the Power Play (at 3:46 TOI/game on the PP), and Okposo is certainly a very attractive option for your squad.

So you’re convinced, right? John Tavares’ right-hand man must be drafted, right? And I better grab him early before somebody else decides to, right?! But alas, there’s always a catch….

Though he’s enjoyed that .92 point per game average over the last two seasons, Okposo has also missed a total of 33 games, and when he came back from that gruesome eye injury, he totaled four goals and three assists over the final 14 regular season games, and was very quiet in the first round of the playoffs versus Washington (two goals and an assist in the seven game series).

Then there’s also the aforementioned trade rumors during the draft, and the fact that New York (or Brooklyn I guess) has a healthy stable of young guns that could potentially push Okposo for ice time. Those names include: Brock Nelson, Anders Lee, Ryan Strome, and possibly Michael Del Colle. In the end, Okposo, despite his contract status, should continue to see steady minutes on the top line with Tavares, and if he can stay healthy (a big if), he could be looking at a 70-75 point season with 20+ power play points. Be careful not to overvalue Okposo, but be very comfortable drafting him anytime in rounds seven thru nine. If you do draft him, you may want to perform some sort of ritual to ensure he remains on a line with #91… just don’t post it on social media.

*Stats taken from Hockey Abstract and Hockey Reference

Also from Derek Gibson:

Frozen Forensics – Matt Duchene

Frozen Forensics – Dynamic Duos: Connor and Jack Edition