Is Alex Pietrangelo overrated in fantasy hockey?

Alex Pietrangelo has been widely regarded as a top NHL defenseman for some time and fantasy owners seem to treat him as being elite as well. But is it deserved?

Pietrangelo is currently 100 percent owned in Yahoo! leagues and he was drafted as the 13^th highest rearguard (on average), routinely picked ahead of other fantasy studs such as Oliver Ekman-Larsson and Justin Faulk. His pedigree as a top pick, his elite level of play dating all the way back to the world juniors, and his prior 50+ point seasons probably have rival GMs believing that Pietrangelo’s fantasy value is a lot higher than it actually is though.

I was offered a trade for Pietrangelo recently in my main keeper pool (in which I am undergoing a one year rebuild), so I wanted to take a deeper dive into Piets by running his recent numbers in Fantasy Hockey Geek. I chose a recent snap shot of his value because the return of Kevin Shattenkirk and emergence of Colton Parayko has impacted Pietrangelo’s deployment – and it’s probably more representative of what we can expect going forward. Below is his value since December 1.

You can see from the above that FHG calculates Pietrangelo as having the 152^nd most value in my league since the start of December. Needless to say, that is not good value for somebody who is supposed to be an elite D. With 10 points in 25 games, his production isn’t terrible, but that’s still only a mid-30s point pace. I have no problem chalking that up to a bit of a cold spell (Pietrangelo is still a 40+ d-man in my mind) but what concerns me more is the power-play points: he has a single power play point since December 1, a time frame that spans almost a third of a season. That just isn’t going to cut it as a player who is supposed to be a top end fantasy D. I added a few other defensemen to the chart to show the kinds of players that Pietrangelo is comparable to and those who are way better than him.

Pietrangelo has always been good for contributing to shots and he still is, but his hits are also low at under one per game. The low power-play points and low hits are a major drain on Pietrangelo to the point where even if he did bounce back to mid-40s production, he would never get back to being that elite fantasy D. The lack of power-play time is hurting his power-play points and subsequently his total point output. The way things currently are, Pietrangelo is in serious jeopardy of becoming a JAG (just a guy).

Looking at these numbers, I didn’t hesitate to move Pietrangelo. I was able to secure Jacob Trouba (who I believe has huge upside next season), as well as a first-round pick that may turn out to be a lottery pick, giving me an extra shot at Auston Matthews.

I am not the type of GM to take proven over unproven, but in this case the FHG math shows me that Pietrangelo is proven – but proven to be just okay. In fact, over the same time frame the guy I got in return (Trouba) is actually ranked higher than Pietrangelo while having played three fewer games! Essentially, I feel like I am not giving up much by downgrading Piets to Trouba. In the process I got myself a high pick, which I can use on another potentially elite-level talent.

In many regards, fantasy hockey is all about knowing when to buy and when to sell. In the case of Pietrangelo, the FHG numbers are telling you that it’s time to sell. The name power and public perception are still there with Pietrangelo, so cash in while you still can. I did, and I am confident that I’ll be thanking myself at this time next season.