Ramblings: Ducks, Yotes, B’s, Sabres and more (July 11)

Dobber

2016-07-11

Rambling about the Ducks, Yotes, Bruins, Sabres and more …

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Great. Nothing controversial happened last week that I can take a contrarian stance on. Well there goes half a Ramblings right there. So now we’re in the dregs of the fantasy hockey season – the eight weeks of dead zone. The World Cup should shorten that to seven weeks, so there’s that.

This is my problem every July. I’m working my ass off (in a good way – totally enjoying it) on a Fantasy Guide that I have four weeks to write or edit from start to finish. And I also write my team-by-team outlooks before August if I can. So I’m quite immersed in the hockey world. But when it comes time to write Ramblings on top of that, I struggle to find topics. I want to save the juicy tidbits I find for the Guide. So you find that the slightest little NHL transaction gets analyzed to death. Have you heard enough of Jonathan Bernier yet?

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Speaking of Bernier, every year it’s like clockwork. I finish my full analysis and write up of the Anaheim Ducks for the Guide. Then they make a big roster move that forces a re-write. One year it’s Dany Heatley. The next year it’s Chris Stewart. This year it’s Bernier. I think going forward I’ll start with Arizona and then circle back to Anaheim later.

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Well, here’s what I learned from writing the Fantasy Guide so far:

Anaheim  

This team is going to surprise with just how bad they are. Goaltending is fine. Defense is excellent and very deep. Forwards are average at best. And I don’t think the new coach will save them. Randy Carlyle will get wins however he can, but it won’t be through possession play. And Ryan Getzlaf and Corey Perry are probably done with 75-point seasons. If Rickard Rakell or Jakob Silfverberg don’t break out this year offensively, then they won’t make the playoffs.I'm calling it now.

Speaking of Silfverberg, the new coach means new opportunity. Here is a guy who is a stud possession player. A very underrated player defensively. But he was only used defensively last season. Zero power-play time. So a new coach could change that. Then we’d see what we have. He was a near 60-point guy in the second half.

 

Arizona

Well, we all figure this team will suck next year and after looking over things closely – I think we figured right. Yes, the Coyotes are on the right track. Lots in the pipeline and you can tell that they will be focusing on possession when it comes to their veteran core players and role players. But this won’t be their year.

I do, however, think the pendulum has swung too far the other way on Mike Smith. Yes, we all want to stay away from him and we all think very little of him. But we went too far. Dial it back a bit. I now consider him a ‘buy low’ because of his overly bad rep.

 

Boston

While I think the Bruins actually improve slightly for the season ahead, I don’t like their long-term outlook. Bruins’ fans may be looking at a slight rebuild in three or four years. So enjoy the next two or three years of barely making the playoffs (or missing them). Nothing much to say that you probably weren’t thinking already with this team. I didn’t learn anything new, though I did gain even more respect for the youngster Frank Vatrano. I think he could be a 30-goal, 50-point player. One of those snipers who won’t pad his point totals with assists.

 

Buffalo

The opposite of Anaheim. Deep at forward, shallow on defense, questionable goaltending. The Sabres are on the right track – great up front with lots of potential, good on them for taking a chance on Jimmy Vesey. Yes, it failed (or will fail), but it’s the right idea. Four of their 10 draft picks were defensemen and I think Dmitri Kulikov was a fine acquisition. Add two more defensemen and hope Robin Lehner stays healthy and they’ll be on their way. If Lehner gets hurt – again – then his contract is up next summer so the Sabres can hit the reset button on that position if they so choose. I think you’re going to see a lot more goals in the season ahead as their talented forwards just increased from four to six (Kyle Okposo, Tyler Ennis) and that will have a domino effect on the rest of the lineup (such as playing with a lead occasionally instead of, well, never).

On a side note, I like Tyler Ennis as a ‘buy low’ pick. Just as with Smith (above, Arizona), the pendulum of anger and disdain has swung too far the other way when it comes to Ennis.

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And that’s as far as I got so far. Buffalo.

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The full team-by-team outlook articles will start rolling in a few days and will run through the end of August.

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Karri Ramo should fire his agent. How he’s still left standing after the music has stopped, while inferior goalies such as Michael Hutchinson find a home and an NHL contract, is beyond me. There are 60 goaltending jobs and to be honest there are probably 75 or 80 goalies who are good enough to get one. So if you already have your foot in the door you need to wedge it open, not meekly allow it to close behind you. After his first five games, which stunk, Ramo posted a 2.37 GAA and a 0.916 SV% in 32 games. To me that’s worthy of an NHL job, at least as a backup. It’s the agent’s job to know the market and know that his doors will all close early in July. Now I think we’ll find him in the KHL next year.

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Some blog entries covering the prospect camps that I’ll share rather than just rehash:
 

Reflections on Carolina’s camp here and here. Carolina also signed their top picks from last month Jake Bean and Julien Gauthier. We have profiles on them here and here.

Dallas camp here.

Here is a story about Ivan Provorov that will pump up his fantasy owners. Assuming that what I said about him in the Prospects Report didn’t pump you up enough…

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Patrik Elias is in the Czech Republic now, still recovering and rehabbing his knee. If he returns, it will be with the Devils. And he wants to return. So the question is – will his knee let him? A decision that won’t be made until September.

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Phil Kessel played the last couple of rounds of his near-MVP-type performance in the playoffs with a hand injury. He underwent surgery on it Friday. He’ll be healthy by September, but now at least he has an excuse to turn down Brian Burke when Burke comes crawling to him to ask him to replace an injured player.

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If you have anything you want me to discuss on Wednesday in those Ramblings, just note them in the comments.

 

 

17 Comments

  1. bcfelony 2016-07-11 at 02:59

    Here’s an idea for the title of your next ramblings, “Why is Lou Nickel and Diming the Franchise’s Future?” Matthews is going to sell so many new Leafs jerseys that it’s going to more than cover the cost of any of the bonuses he might receive. It’s maximum everything. Done. And he is still making less that Polak.

    I’m sure the Matthews’ support team cannot be happy with this. This is no way to start a hopefully long lasting relationship. He should be here well after Lou has been sent to pasture, so Shanahan needs to step in and get this contract done before its too late to repair.

  2. Todd MacKay 2016-07-11 at 06:37

    Where does Halak’s value fall next year? I have to decide between keeping him or Brian Elliott in a wins/shutouts keeper league. Judging by your goalie rankings, it’s almost a coin toss

  3. Jeremy Campbell 2016-07-11 at 08:18

    Good little teaser for the infamous guide, Dobber. The Ducks really could be in trouble of making the playoffs, the party could be over for the Ducks and for Bernier too. I had Perry and Getzlaf in my pool last season, but won’t be looking for them for the 2016-2017 campaign.

  4. Chad Burly 2016-07-11 at 09:01

    you can still talk about how Larsson is going to be next Pronger if you really want to.

    • Dobber 2016-07-11 at 09:09

      You really think he’s going to be the next Pronger? Yikes. I’ll bet you $100 he won’t be. Friendly bet, winnings go to cancer. What do you say?

      • Chad Burly 2016-07-11 at 09:35

        No, I don’t think that at all!

      • bcfelony 2016-07-11 at 09:49

        I’ll bet you a $100 the Ducks finish ahead of the Oilers, winnings go to me.

        • Dobber 2016-07-11 at 09:56

          Hmmm…now this is a great bet. Here’s what I think though:
          Last Playoff Spot – 92 points
          Anaheim – 90 points
          Edmonton – 89 points
          I’m so close to taking this bet (only for cancer though, not personal gains). Give me three points and I’d do it.

  5. Striker 2016-07-11 at 09:59

    I’ll just post what I posted else where regarding Anaheim.

    “I have no issues with what Murray’s done. As he hasn’t really done anything yet.

    I love the Bernier acquisition. He posted a .908 SV% playing for the worst team in the NHL last season. Gibson hasn’t shown he can stay healthy yet nor fully carry the load. Bernier provides a great safety net & will be a much better goalie playing in Anaheim than he was in Toronto last season. Bernier’s previous stats, 2 full seasons still playing for a brutal team in Toronto were solid. .912 & .923 SV%.

    Anaheim is a serious cup contender based on the core, D depth & strength of the players that are & have been Ducks for a few years or longer. Rackell, Silvferberg, Lindholm, Vatanen & Gibson are just scratching the surface of their vast potential & Ritchie & Theodore are studs & both are ready for full time roles, limited, sheltered roles but full time roles regardless.

    Tons of free agent options & Murray will dip in eventually he always does & he trades actively if it doesn’t work with out hesitation. Come October 12th Anaheim will have add a 1st or 2nd line LW. Ritchie played 33 games last season in a limited role. He will move into the #3 spot this season & will be Anaheim’s #1 LW as soon as he’s fully ready. Could come next year but realistically the year following.

    Anaheim has several interesting under the radar prospects coming at forward. Kerdiles, Kossila, Sorenson & Noesen. None may be ready until the New Year but if nothing else happens 2 of these 4 are playing in the NHL next season. The concern for me is Carlyle. He doesn’t play young players but for his veterans specifically Getzlaf & Perry their icetime will increase by 10 to 20% & their points proportionately. Carlyle loves his veterans & rides them a ton.

    TBD, Getzlaf, Perry.
    Coglinao, Kesler, Silvferberg.
    Ritchie, Rackell, TBD
    Raymond, Wagner, Garbutt.
    Spare. Boll.

    Raymond & Garbutt will get opportunities in other roles as penalties, injuries, coaching tendencies dictate but both are suited more to 3rd & 4th line roles. Rackell could also return to LW he played there for a significant # of games to start the season although I think the #1 LW spot will be addressed else where.

    I have no issue with flushing out the depth positions 1st as we all know Murray isn’t buying top end UFA’s.

    Even if Anaheim trades Fowler or a different Dman or potentially none at all. This is 1 of the strongest D’s in the NHL but if 1 is moved unless it’s Bieksa the return is going to be substantial.”

    Anaheim makes the playoffs in a walk & is still a serious cup contender in my opinion. Who did they lose of any consequence? Perron 28 games, McGinn 21, Hagelin 43 who was swapped for Perron as it didn’t work saving 4 mil in cap space for 3 more years, Horcoff, Santorelli, Sekec, & Stewart. Perron & McGinn made some contribution in their limited appearances they others did virtually nothing. Garbutt was brought in late & Raymond signed as a UFA, they replace Santorelli & Stewart. Perron’s replacement has yet to materialize but Ritchie is more than capable of filling McGinn’s role, better actually.

    • Dobber 2016-07-11 at 10:09

      When I mentioned them being a disappointment this year on Twitter, The Forecaster magazine was quick to tweet back their agreement. So there’s two big ‘sources’ for you!
      If Mason Raymond makes Anaheim, then they’ll be absolutely terrible.

      Kossila is a very underrated prospect. I like him.

      Ritchie will be a stud, but will take three to four more years to get there.

      Getzlaf and Perry aren’t superstars anymore, and that makes Anaheim one of the weaker teams in the league because they just have a couple of 65-point players and a few 45-50 point players. Just another Nashville or Boston. Like I said – they NEED Rakell and Silfverberg to breakout or they’re toast.

      • Striker 2016-07-11 at 11:36

        I buy the Forecaster religiously. 1 of the best publications available but even they aren’t great. If I were to grade them on their forecasts for player point predictions I would give them a D. For player points I consider you to be accurate if with in 5 points plus or minus a significant window to hit, especially once you get outside the top 30.

        As for team positions by standings they would get an F, worse if such a grade existed. Go back & look at their predictions for placement by divisions.

        In the Atlantic they had Montreal 2nd, Ottawa 3rd. Metropolitan Columbus 2nd, Philadelphia 6th. Central Colorado 2nd, Winnipeg 4th, Chicago 5th, St Louis 6th, Minnesota 7th. Pacific, Calgary 2nd, Edmonton 4th, San Jose 6th. These projections were a joke.

        I use the Forecaster, McKeens, yourself & numerous other sources as a reference & make my own assumptions & predictions for points production & standings. Like you there is a reason we always finish well in what ever pools we choose to participate in. It’s not because of any 1 souce.

        The Forcaster is a great source of data, a must read for any true fantasy manager but really only a tool & if you rely on their predictions, you aren’t winning Sh-t!

  6. Striker 2016-07-11 at 10:14

    Now as for Boston. They are a bubble team, they were last season & will be again this year. The rebuild won’t start in 3 or 4 years, it started last season in earnest with Sweeney taking over as GM. It’s not a full tear down but a retooling or transition if you will. Boston dressed 11 players last season in significant roles who in most cases had 2 years or less of NHL experience. They are transitioning to youth but even the core with the exception of Chara; Liles & Backes is either in their late 20’s or just turned 30.

    Buying out Seidenberg & signing Liles made ZERO sense to me. Stupid. saved less than a mil when the dust settled & Seideneberg is or was a far better 2 way Dman.

    Boston has a ton of cap space. My hope is they just let Morrow & C. Miller play regular roles & accept their mistakes. With expansion coming Boston needs to know if Miller is a protector because as it stands now he is on the outside looking in. They could still trade for a top 4 D & I think they will eventually but why this wasn’t addressed in the UFA market boggles my mind. Why give up assets when you could have potentially signed Yandle or Goligoski for nothing more than cash.

    Depending upon what Sweeney has up his sleeve this may or may not be a playoff team. Again a bubble team.

  7. NHLGodfather 2016-07-11 at 10:25

    Dobber, can you look at the Red Wings, and their failure to address their glaring defense needs. I realize that there is time for Holland to still make a move, and there is “Datsyuk money” that can be used. Mike Green was added last season, but that didn’t really make a significant difference. Kronwall is declining and the rest of the defense is AHL caliber at best. I really don’t see any solution coming from Grand Rapids either. With the Datsyuk contract being sent to Arizona freeing up 7.5 million cap space, I was confidant that Yandle was coming to Detroit. That didn’t happen. Maybe a Shattenkirk deal? I have my doubts. Maybe signing FA Luke Schenn for much needed grit? As it stands now, no team pays the price for entering in Detroit’s zone. A 26th year in row playoff appearance is looking mighty shaky as it stands now. But, there is still time….right?

    • Pyrrhus of Epirus 2016-07-11 at 12:28

      we replaced Pavel and his money straight up with Nielson, there is no more money there. And with the Vanek and Ott signings, the little money we had saved with Richards and Quincy off the books is gona also. Frankly im getting tired of the retool when we are clearly a bubble playoff team/first round loss kind of team, why string this aging group along for another season to bottom out the year the new arena opens? Holland is way to comfortable in his position, he needs to start feeling some heat from ownership and fans.

      • NHLGodfather 2016-07-11 at 16:02

        In reference to the “Datsyuk money” I believed it destined to sign Yandle, that was prior to Frans Nielsen, Vanek and Ott signings. The current defense is too soft and the likes of Oulette and Spoul are not much of an upgrade from Kindl. Maybe Brendan Smith will break out, but I don’t see it. He’s the only one who shows some toughness…on occasion. As to Holland, I totally agree. There should be enough money to sign a couple of rugged stay at home FA’s that are still available. Either that or make a deal that will cost the Wings one of their promising youngsters (Mantha). Simply put, the Wings cannot stand pat with their current defense.

  8. Ryan Taylor 2016-07-11 at 13:47

    Ramo is 30, 0.916 is straight up average, and he has a blown up knee that won’t be healthy until December. Why would anyone want to sign a guy who won’t even be able to play until halfway through the year, and might not even return to his “top form”, which is mediocre at best?

    • Dobber 2016-07-11 at 13:50

      I had forgotten about the knee, Ryan, sorry. There goes half my Ramblings

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