Ramblings: Parting thoughts for the season, the Washington centres, St. Louis retires

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It’s interesting to see that the Caps have lined Evgeny Kuznetsov on the top line with Alex Ovechkin and TJ Oshie, moving Nicklas Backstrom down to the second line with Andre Burakovsky and Justin Williams. This could be seen as an issue for Backstrom’s fantasy value, but I’m not so sure.

Over the last three seasons, Backstrom has managed an astounding 171 assists. The thing is, of those 171 assists, 95 of them have come on the power play, or well over half. Taking him off the top line at even strength does not mean he will be removed from the top power play. As long as he remains there, his assist totals should still be plentiful.

Backstrom’s assist rate at five-on-five isn’t as elite as some people may think. From Hockey Analysis, of 95 forwards with 3000 minutes played at five-on-five over the last three years, he’s 35^th in assists per 60 minutes (1.15), trailing names like Carl Soderberg (1.25), Scott Hartnell (1.24), and Josh Bailey (1.20). As long as his minutes don’t go down, and he’s still on the top power play unit, I think this “demotion” doesn’t really matter in the grand scheme of things. In fact, if some fantasyowners hear he’s on the second line, Backstrom may come at a discount at the draft table.

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It was announced that Martin St. Louis will indeed have his number retired by the Tampa Bay Lightning in a game against Columbus this year. Though the franchise doesn’t have the long history of some others, in its own history, St. Louis is one of the most important players to don a Lightning uniform. He won two scoring titles (almost a decade apart), an MVP, three Lady Byngs, and was an integral part in the team’s only Stanley Cup win to date. The way he left the team wasn’t exactly ideal, but his career there was storied.

This brings me to Steven Stamkos. The team still hasn’t found a replacement for St. Louis since he was traded, and are likely hoping that Jonathan Drouin is that surrogate. Think of these splits with the range of the start of the 2009 season until the day St. Louis was traded, and then from the day he was traded until the end of last season (from Corsica Hockey):

• Stamkos (five-on-five, from 2009 until March 4, 2014): 329 games played, 114 goals, 98 assists for 2.62 points/60 minutes.
• Stamkos (five-on-five, from March 5, 2014 until now): 209 games played, 55 goals, 38 assists for 1.91 points/60 minutes.

Even taking to account a decline league-wide in scoring, a drop of more than 25-pecent in rate production is extremely significant. They just signed Stamkos to a long-term deal, so he had better find some chemistry with Drouin (or maybe Ondrej Palat) soon.

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Today is my last day for the offseason work here at Dobber. As it was last year, this was a great summer to be around the fantasy hockey community. I really enjoy my time working with the wealth of writers, scouts, podcasters, and everyone else here at Dobber. Getting to work with such a wide array of talents from different backgrounds across North America is an invaluable way to get differing opinions on certain subjects or players, and that can only help me in return.

I will still be around from time to time during the season itself, but as far as the twice-weekly Ramblings goes, that is over with for now.

Finally, I would like to thank the readers for their continued patience with me. The back-and-forth we’ve had has mostly been positive, and that kind of discourse, also, helps me with my work. I want to thank everyone who has reached out to me specifically to say they’ve enjoyed my Ramblings. I still can never post an article without feeling nervous about the final product, so the positive reinforcement truly does mean a lot.

I would like to impart some final thoughts both in general, and on the season, before moving on.

Please, please keep the game fun

Getting into fantasy hockey (and baseball) writing nearly five years ago now was partly a product of my enjoyment of the game. I grew up playing and watching hockey, moved on to coaching hockey, and now am writing about hockey. All of this was done because it is the game I’ve loved since I was a small child.

When there is ego involved, and particularly hundreds or thousands of dollars, it’s easy to lose sight of why we got into fantasy hockey in the first place. My first pools when I was 11 or 12 years old were because I wanted to enjoy spending a night with some friends, picking our favourite players to follow for the year. That feeling shouldn’t really change as we age. The feeling of spending a night with some friends, be it online or at a draft table, is a feeling we should keep in mind when someone offers a bad trade or snipes your player in the draft. Set the money aside, and enjoy yourself. Life is hard enough as it is, there’s no need for adding stress through a game that is supposed to be a stress-reliever.

Never stop learning

Hopefully some people reading my Ramblings for the summer have learned a thing or two. That is my basic function as a writer: gather information, meld that into knowledge, assemble my thoughts (often poorly), and relay it to the reader. Whether it be new statistics that have been introduced – this summer I wrote frequently on the work done by Ryan Stimson and his game trackers as part of the Passing Project – or just reinforcing existing ones, the learning is never over.

Not to get too philosophical, but I think continuing education can be an issue for some people as we get older. It’s certainly understandable – someone with a spouse, a couple of kids, a full-time job, a mortgage, car payments, retirement saving, other personal projects, and a whole host of other issues, doesn’t necessarily have a lot of free time. And when that person does have free time, it’s not often spent improving their knowledge base. Rather, it’s just sit down and watch a ball game, hit the golf course to play a round, or some other interest.

I do encourage readers, though, to take some of that free time and continue learning. Obviously in this context I refer specifically to new work being done in hockey – both Mr. Stimson and Emmanuel Perry are doing very good work – but it’s also a general statement. Try to spare even a couple hours a week to continue learning in whichever field is of interest. Learning something new is never a waste of time.

Now, for more fantasy hockey-specific thoughts…

Don’t overlook proven commodities

As far as this season, and fantasy hockey specifically, is concerned, I wrote yesterday about a couple of proven NHL players that are being undervalued. They don’t necessarily have to be older players, either, just established ones. Beyond James van Riemsdyk and Jeff Carter, some other players that aren’t getting the credit they deserve as far as their ADPs go:

• Justin Faulk – his 82-game pace over the last three years is 13 goals, 30 assists, 212 shots on goal. He has 50-point upside, and the only thing that can really hurt his value is the goaltending behind him for plus/minus concerns.
• Derek Stepan – It depends on the league settings, but in setups that don’t use real-time stats, this is a consistent commodity. In fact, he’s 1 of 12 forwards that has managed 50 points, a non-negative plus/minus, and 2.25 shots per game in each of the last three years. He could see a bigger role this year, and has 60-point upside.
• Steve Mason –  I know he can be inconsistent at times, but which goalie isn’t. Think about this: there are five goalies that have played at least 20 games, and managed a .916 overall save percentage in each of the last four seasons, and they are Ben Bishop, Corey Crawford, Henrik Lundqvist, Cory Schneider, and Steve Mason. Over the last three years, he’s one of five goalies with at least 41 games started and a save percentage of at least .917 in each of those years. In other words, for as “inconsistent” as he is, he’s pretty consistent.
• Dougie Hamilton – I wrote about him yesterday in the Ramblings, but yeah, don’t let him slide too far.

There are others, but that’s a decent start besides JvR/Carter.

Be vigilant on the waiver wire

This ties back into the “I have other things I have to do” thread earlier, but it’s so important to stay on top of the waiver wire. The draft is just the start, the season can often be won and lost through the waiver wire. Just ask players in shallow leagues that were able to grab Artemi Panarin last year, guys that grabbed Shayne Gostisbehere in November, or people that got short-term or long-term boosts from goalies like Scott Wedgewood or Thomas Greiss.

For those that use Twitter, I have a list of over 100 beat writers that can be followed here. More than the stats I’ve learned over the years, the utility of beat writers cannot be overstated. They are usually the first people to learn of lineup moves, roster shakeups, or injuries. This has an impact on the waiver pool, and often can lead to those paying attention being the first to grab the right guy.

Don’t be afraid to trade

The final piece of advice is to not be afraid to trade your players, regardless of their true value. Quite often, roto and head-to-head leagues are won by the most balanced team. There is no issue with building an area of strength – say goal-scorers that take a lot of shots – because building up a lead in a certain area is exactly what’s needed for a trade. A team loaded with goal scorers but scarce on play-makers isn’t necessarily a good roto team. It’s better to be third in a roto league in both goals and assists than to lead goals by a mile and be ninth out of 12 teams in assists. Points leagues are different, but in roto leagues, fantasy owners don’t get a bonus from finishing first in goals by 50. Whether it’s a disparity of 50 goals or one goal, the value of winning the category is the same.

For that reason, don’t be afraid to trade, and do so from a position of strength. Keep in mind that true value does not equal relative value. Corey Perry is probably more valuable than Joe Thornton in a roto league. But if the Perry owner is way in front in goals and shots, and way behind on assists, the relative value of Perry to Thronton diminishes for that team. A trade involving those two players in some fashion, then, makes sense. In other words, the Perry owner would, in general, lose that trade, but in the context of his team, it would be the right thing to do.

Don’t be afraid to make trades, and don’t be afraid to make one that can be perceived as a loss but in the context of your team is actually a win.

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That’s it for me. Again, thanks to everyone for reading, thanks to the wonderful staff here at Dobber, and most importantly, can the season start already?!

*Stats from Hockey Reference, Hockey Analysis, and Corsica Hockey. Line combos from Dobber’s Frozen Pool.