Backup goalies are usually an afterthought in fantasy drafts, relatively speaking. They aren’t guys who singlehandedly win you a league like, say, Sergei Bobrovsky could have last year (unless the starter gets hurt and the backup is otherworldly, but those instances are few and far between). They are players, however, that can help sustain your goaltending stats when a starter goes through a bad stretch or a team with a bye week in head-to-head leagues.

In general, you want a goaltender from a good defensive team. You’re not going to get many wins out of a backup goalie, fantasy-wise, and save percentages can vary wildly in such small samples. Goals against average being a team stat can at least help solidify one of the three categories. With that in mind, here are a few goalies that are starting to climb my target list for drafts next year.

Ryan Miller

This was an astute signing for the Ducks, bringing in the veteran Miller as insurance for the oft-injured John Gibson. While his best days are behind him, Miller was still a solid goalie last year when looking at either five-on-five save percentage, or goals saved above average per 60 minutes as calculated by Sean Tierney. The team still boasts a very solid top-four defence corps and a deep forward group, indicating to me this team should be strong again. While league mates chase Gibson, Miller makes a fine third goaltender in 12-teamers.

Aaron Dell

He is a 28-year-old goalie with 20 career NHL games, and will be backing up Martin Jones, who should get 60-plus starts again. So why the excitement? Over his 72 career AHL games going back three seasons, he did manage a .924 save percentage. In Mr. Tierney’s GSAA/60 that I linked in the blurb about Miller, Dell led the league last year. The Sharks were one of the best defensive teams in the league in 2016-17, and most of the roster is returning. All signs point to Dell being a solid backup goalie, and his 20-ish starts should be valuable to fantasy owners.

Philipp Grubauer

I will cheat a little here and state the obvious: Grubauer is going to be one of the more sought-after backup goalies in fantasy drafts. Washington may not be the regular season juggernaut this year that they were last year, but they again be very good. In 66 career games, Grubauer has a healthy .923 save percentage, giving hope he’ll post solid ratios again next year. Depending on the format, I would probably draft him ahead of a handful of actual starters in 2017-18.

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Throughout the summer, I’m going team by team to recap particular fantasy performances from 2016-17. Next on the list in alphabetical order is the Ottawa Senators.

Kyle Turris

Remember when it seemed like Turris’ career was dead in the water in Arizona? Well, he just posted his third 55-plus point season in four years, with the fourth season being one in which he played just 57 games. The 2016-17 campaign also saw him set a career-high in goals with 27, and it was the third straight campaign with at least 19 minutes played per game.

One red flag for me is the continuing decline in shots per 60 minutes at five-on-five. I’ll preclude the 2015-16 season here for our purposes, a year in which he missed about a quarter of the season with a high-ankle sprain and was clearly playing injured even when he returned. But since the start of the 2013-14 campaign, his shot attempts per 60 have declined from 15.37 to 14.06 to settling at 12.60 last year. The reason he set a career-high in five-on-five goals with 17 was because he also set a career-high in shooting percentage at 12.78 percent. It was the first time in six years he cracked 10 percent, too.

The concern, of course, is two-fold: a return to normalcy in shooting percentage here even if his shot rate remains stagnant could cause a loss of four or five goals, and a decline in ice time will hurt even more. This isn’t to say I assume he will lose ice time as it’s pretty clear he’s the coach’s favourite centre, but rather a commentary in his inefficiency and decline volume. His three-year points per 60 minutes after so-so, and in the same neighbourhood as guys like Milan Lucic and Tomas Plekanec. That’s not great.

What we have to consider, then, is that Turris is kind of like the Eastern Conference’s Ryan Kesler, if only a bit more productive per minute. He is not a player who will rack up points unless he racks up the ice time. He should be in the 55-point range again with a few more assists given the impending drop in goals, but any real loss in ice time will be a problem. Again, I don’t expect him to lose ice time, it’s just something to keep in mind. 

Mike Hoffman

It was another very good fantasy season for the Ottawa winger, as he was just one of 12 forwards with at least 25 goals, 35 assists, and three shots on goal per game. The rest of the list is a veritable who’s-who in the NHL:

Over the last three years, Hoffman is ninth in points per 60 minutes at five-on-five (2.22) among 185 forwards with at least 2500 minutes played. That mark is ahead of guys like Tyler Seguin (2.19), Mark Scheifele (2.17), Max Pacioretty (2.16), and Nicklas Backstrom (2.08).

The biggest improvement, by far, was with his power-play points. In his first 186 career games, he managed just 11 power-play goals and eight such assists; last year, he had 13 of each. In fact, he led the team in power-play ice time per game, which was a significant deviation to previous seasons, having never finished among the top-5 Sens forwards in PP ice time per game. It was, however, a progression, as he kept accumulating more as each year passed.

Seeing such an increase in PP ice time is very crucial here. This team had a heavily-used top PP core which sometimes consisted of four forwards, and Hoffman was usually in that mix. More than that, however, is the fact that like Turris, Hoffman’s shots per minute has been declining steadily since his rookie season. Where he was once among the league’s biggest volume shooters a couple years ago, he finished in the middle of the pack in 2016-17 among heavily-used forwards. It was fortunate, then, that he received so much power-play ice time or else his final raw totals could have been much worse.

I don’t have any particular concern here as far as his fantasy value is concerned. Though he might be yo-yo’d up and down the lineup for whatever reason the coaching staff comes up with, getting so much power-play time can mask a lot of that. He is truly one of the high-end snipers in the game, and should continue to receiver the minutes he was given last year.

Mark Stone

It was the third straight season for Stone with at least 20 goals and 30 assists, which is solid consistency, even if he only played 71 games last year. Unfortunately, it was also his second season in three years in which he failed to manage at least two shots on goal per game. He also had fewer than 30 penalty minutes, finishing with just 28.

By now, we have a good idea of who Stone is, and everything last year was pretty much in line with his first two full seasons. It’s important, however, for fantasy owners to be able to differentiate his value among different setups. He can be a guy that scores 25 goals, amasses 60 points, and will be roughly a top-60 roto forward (standard leagues). He just does not fill up any of the peripherals, and there is no reason to think that will change moving forward.

Keep that in mind when draft season rolls around. If your league counts penalty minutes and shots (and especially real-time stats like hits and blocked shots), there is little chance he’s properly valued in drafts. Given that 2016-17 saw no improvement in peripherals, everything should be status quo next year, and that means he can’t be relied upon to be much more than a top-100 player (including goalies). That is probably about where he’ll be drafted meaning there’s not much upside value at his likely ADP. In a points-only league he can finish much higher, obviously, and that distinction is crucial to keep in mind.

Dion Phaneuf

Going over Erik Karlsson’s season is rather boring; yada yada yada best defenceman alive. Rather, Phaneuf makes a nice contrast to the type of player Stone is, fantasy-wise. While certain settings would slightly alter value, Phaneuf was roughly a top-20 defenceman in roto leagues last year. That’s despite a season where he managed just 30 points, one fewer than Damon Severson.

This is another instance where knowing league settings is important. In a points-only league, he’s roughly a top-50 defenceman. In roto leagues, he’s probably top-25. That is a chasm in value difference. He is no longer the player he was in Calgary, nor even really the guy he was in Toronto. However, even if he’s a 25-point player next year, with all those penalty minutes, nearly two shots on goal per game, and the bevy of hits and blocked shots, he can still be a top-30 defenceman. He probably goes undervalued in such leagues again, and would have no problem drafting him as a third, or hopefully fourth defenceman on my fantasy roster.