Viktor Arvidsson, a restricted free agent, signed a seven-year deal with the Nashville Predators totalling just under $30 million. This contract will carry him through his Age 30 season. The 24-year-old had a breakout season in 2016-17 with 31 goals and 61 points. He added 13 points in 22 playoff games during Nashville’s Stanley Cup run.

This is a fantastic deal for the Predators. It locks up a player that is a true first-line winger. Some may be worried about basing this contract off one season, but this is not a concern with me. His metrics were solid in a minimal role in 2015-16, and finally broke out when given a real opportunity to shine. Watching him play offers an understanding of his talent level, and the numbers bear that out.

This is great news for his cap league fantasy owners. With just four power-play goals last year, and James Neal out of the picture, there’s room for improvement in this category. Officially, he was sixth among regular Preds forwards in power-play ice time per game, fifth if you don’t include Mike Ribeiro. Three players with more PP TOI than Arvidsson may not be back in 2017-18 (depending on what happens with Mike Fisher), so I would expect him to increase his power-play production. He could improve on the 60 points he had last year, which is a scary thought considering his price in keepers and dynasties this time a year ago.

Top-line minutes and top power-play time kind of insulates any drop-off that could come his way. To be fair, his on-ice team shooting percentage and his individual shooting percentage were high, but not extreme. They just generated a lot of shots. It’s not like there’s something that would indicate significant regression. He should repeat his 60-point performance, particularly if the power-play time improves.   

Ian Gooding wrote about Arvidsson’s deal in Sunday’s Ramblings, and to get his perspective, read here.

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Be sure to pre-order your copy of Dobber’s Fantasy Guide for 2017-18, available on August 1^st! That, and more, available in the Dobber Shop.

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Speaking of new contracts, I never got around to discussing that of Colton Parayko. Obviously, that deal for St. Louis is a huge win. It seems like he’s a unicorn in that both traditional analysts and those who use advanced metrics both agree that Parayko is an absolute stud. The fact that the Blues got him for the price they did is great for the team.

Fantasy-wise, however, there is still a lot of questions as to his value this year. Dobber’s own Steve Laidlaw weighed in on this recently:

Here's your free player projection on these two: I have Pietrangelo at 51 points and Parayko at 38 for this coming season.

— Stephen Laidlaw (@SteveLaidlaw) July 20, 2017

Ian Gooding also put out his own tweet on the matter, but it was a poll rather than a projection:

Who finishes with more points in 2017-18?

— Ian Gooding (@Ian_Gooding) July 22, 2017

This is an interesting discussion for a couple of reasons.

First, we have to think along with the organization. As Steve pointed out in his thread, after the Kevin Shattenkirk trade last year, it was Alex Pietrangelo, and not Parayko, who took over primary power-play duties. Does this continue? The team frequently used four forwards on the top PP unit, which means it’s one or the other getting prime PP minutes. If Parayko doesn’t get that ice time, how far can he improve on the 10 power-play points? Consider:

Parayko had 141 power-play minutes last year. There were 51 defenceman that had between 50-150 power-play minutes in 2016-17. Of those 51 defencemen, none had more than 12 PP points, and four cracked double-digits. Conversely of the 28 defencemen with at least 200 PP minutes, only one blue liner had fewer than 12 power-play points, and well over half of them (18 out of 28) had at least 15 PP points.

If Pietrangelo is the top PP guy, how many minutes does Parayko get, and is it enough to improve meaningfully on the 10 PPP he had last season? Probably not.

Fantasy owners have a decision to make on Parayko. The 24-year-old was probably drafted around the 30^th defenceman off the board in fantasy drafts last year (yes, it would vary from league to league, I’m just talking about an average). Undoubtedly, that ADP will be higher this year, and he should easily end up somewhere in the top-25. If he gets top power-play time, he can probably end up somewhere from 45-50 points. If he does not, it’s probably 35-40. In standard ESPN roto leagues, he finished around a top-35 rearguard last season. Where are you willing to draft him?   

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While I’m thinking of teammates on the blue line, what a disaster drafting Kris Letang and Justin Schultz will be next season. This is a situation loaded with issues.

When Letang is healthy, few defencemen are tops in the fantasy game. In a perfect world where everyone played 82 games, he’s probably drafted as a top-5 defenceman. This isn’t a perfect world, though, and he’s missed well over 100 games over the last four years. You just can’t draft a guy to be your number-1 defenceman in a fantasy league if you can’t expect more than 55 games from him.

On the other hand, we have basically one elite year from Schultz, a year that was the result of Letang missing half the season. Let’s be generous and say Letang plays 60 games next year, where do you draft him? And if Schultz is healthy and fills in for Letang in the quarter-season he misses, where do you draft him? This seems like a nightmare in the making for fantasy owners.

This is probably a situation where unless either guy is a crazy value at the draft table, I’ll probably just let them be someone else’s problem. There’s no chance I’m drafting Letang inside the top-12 blue liners, and no chance I’m drafting Schultz inside the top-20. Where do you guys stand on these two? Is there one you’re leaning towards over the other? Let us know in the comments.

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To keep the theme going, let’s go over a couple other blue line teammates that fantasy owners are going to have a decision between this draft season.

First is the Panthers pair of Keith Yandle and Aaron Ekblad. These two were neck-and-neck in power-play minutes per game, separated by just 12 seconds. Florida generated more shots and scoring chances with Yandle on the ice, and he was far more productive personally on a point-per-minute basis.

The flipside of this is that Ekblad is clearly more of a shooter, and perhaps that’s what the top power-play unit needs. Remember that this team often used four forwards on the top PP unit, which would have far more talent than the second unit.

Ekblad is a player who can stuff peripheral stats in roto leagues, while Yandle is the proven point-producer who should get the first crack at the top PP quintet, assuming they run four forwards again. Who would you rather draft for 2017-18 only?

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The last pairing of defencemen that I think makes for interesting debate is Mark Giordano and Dougie Hamilton.

After a slow start to the season that saw the captain post just one goal and nine points through 26 games, he managed 11 goals and 30 points over his final 55 games. In standard ESPN leagues, he did manage to finish as a top-12 defenceman. It was a season, however, that saw him fail to crack 40 points for the first time since the lockout-shortened season, and he dropped below two shots on goal per game for the first time since that same year as well.

On the other hand, Dougie Hamilton also finished as a top-12 ESPN defenceman, cracking 50 points and managing over 2.7 shots on goal per game. He did this despite a three-year low in ice time per game, coming in at 19:41. He tallied 14 power-play points, however, despite about 24 fewer PP minutes than Giordano managed.  Over the last three seasons, the only defencemen more productive than Hamilton on a point-per-minute basis at five-on-five than Hamilton are Brent Burns, Erik Karlsson, and Victor Hedman.

We one defenceman in his mid-30s who is probably declining but has a long track record of success and will get heavy usage. We have another defenceman in his mid-20s, hitting his prime, but may see about 400 fewer minutes of ice time (though about 40 percent of that may be just on the penalty kill).

For the 2017-18 season, who would you rather draft?

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These sorts of matchups make for interesting debates in the Who Would You Rather category, but they also make interesting debates in draft strategy. There’s no doubting that every defenceman listed in those pairs could provide significant fantasy value. If guys like Letang or Giordano produce like they have in recent seasons (and stay healthy), they could knock on the door of being a top-5 d-man. If guys like Parayko or Ekblad get preferred usage, these young stars could be top-10 players. These are a lot of ifs, though, so maybe it’s best to just avoid the headache altogether? Where do you stand on drafting guys in these situations? His us up in the comments.