We continue our summer Cage Match Tournament with forwards that may have yet to peak.

As promised, I’m back for a second Summer Cage Match Tournament! Just last week, your votes named Tyler Johnson as the current NHL skater least likely to ever again beat his previous career high despite being still under the peak age for forwards, with Gabriel Landeskog also getting votes from over 50% of respondents. Check out the results, since they’ll help you assess how other GMs value these players.

Forwards Who’ve yet to Peak

With our first Tournament in the books, let’s move to the opposite end of the spectrum for our second. This week you’ll decide which forwards are most likely to surpass their previous career highs, despite that fact that they already are – or will be – older than the supposed “peak” age for forwards (i.e., 27.73, according to my recent column) as of October 4, 2017 (which is the first day of the 2017-18 campaign).

Rules, and Voting

Beyond the age requirements, the only other “rules” were that I limited the choices to forwards who have scored at least 50 points in a past season. I intended to include defensemen as well, but it was difficult to determine where to draw the line on minimum points, plus not too many names jumped out beyond just a few (e.g., Brent Burns, Alec Martinez, Kevin Shattenkirk). So in the end I decided to keep it to forwards only, and I set the 50+ point threshold to limit it to players who should be fantasy relevant to the most poolies.

As occurred last week, I’m going to allow you to vote for as many of the choices as you want. So if you think each one of these players will establish a new career high either in 2017-18 or a future season, go ahead and vote for all of them. Otherwise, just vote for those you think will do so. Similar to last week as well, contract status, likelihood of being traded, injury risk, and individual/team situation are relevant factors to consider. In other words, don’t vote in a vacuum or with your heart– this calls for analysis of the totality of a player’s current and likely future circumstances. The results will be fantasy relevant for Dobberites, so please take this seriously.

Once again voting will take place in the DobberHockey forums. I’ll put a direct link to the voting thread at the bottom of the column.

The Choices

The voting choices are listed below in alphabetical order, along with their birthdate and their previous career high.

Cam Atkinson (Born: June 5, 1989; Previous career high in points: 62 in 2016-17)

Who’s the real Atkinson? The middling player who had 165 points in 300 career games before 2016-17? The budding star who strung together 59 points in his first 68 games last season? Or the H2H playoff killer who slumped to the finish line in 2016-17 with three points in his last 14 games? Or, is he none of the above? It’s not easy to say, although the fact that he seems stapled to Brandon Dubinsky, rather than Alexander Wennberg, probably won’t help his production. After all, it’s Dubinsky who’s most often deployed in situations less favorable to scoring, as reflected in Atkinson’s 44.8% offensive zone starting percentage for 2016-17, which was down for the fourth straight year. Yet although Atkinson’s personal shooting percentage was up quite a bit, his 5×5 team shooting percentage was down and his other metrics were reasonable. If Atkinson was a few years younger it wouldn’t be difficult to predict better things to come; but now it’s no slam dunk that he’ll ultimately be able to best his 2016-17 total.

Josh Bailey (Born: October 2, 1989; Previous career high in points: 56 in 2016-17)

Every season Bailey would have a stretch alongside John Tavares and put up superb numbers, resulting in poolies rushing to grab him only to be disappointed when he invariably came back to earth with a crashing thud. But a funny thing happened last season in that Bailey kept producing and, at age 27, lived up to his former top ten overall draft spot. What’s to stop Bailey from building upon his success to make a push for 60+ points? The pendulum of good luck swinging back in the other direction for one, as the 9.62% team shooting percentage with him on the ice at 5×5 was the highest in Bailey’s career by far, as was him appearing on the ice for 60% of all Islanders’ PP Time, which was nearly double his previous high. Plus, there’s the fact that newly acquired Jordan Eberle and Bailey both are natural RWs, which could mean Bailey is pushed off not just the top line at even strength, but also PP1.

Tyler Bozak (Born: March 19, 1986; Previous career high in points: 55 in 2016-17)

Lost amid the fanfare surrounding the ultra-talented Maple Leaf youngsters during the 2016-17 campaign was the fact that Bozak set a career high and looks to still have a spot for him in the Toronto top six for at least the near future. Digging a bit deeper, however, Bozak’s PP on ice percentage was less than 50% for the first time as a Leaf, plus the team’s 5×5 shooting percentage was unsustainably high (10.25%) with him on the ice. Even still – Bozak was shooting the puck more than he has in years, and saw his shorthanded time drop for the third straight year to now virtually zero. If Toronto displays even more offensive firepower this season, chances Bozak will do as well (if not even better) just by being along for the ride.

Logan Couture (Born: March 28, 1989; Previous career high in points: 67 in 2014-15)

The reflex might be to think that the departure of Patrick Marleau will help Couture, yet the opposite could be true. After all, Couture was already a PP1 staple, and Marleau’s presence benefitted the PP, with his team shooting percentage at 5×4 was the highest among all Sharks players for 2016-17. As for even strength, Joe Pavelski and Joe Thornton are just about as inseparable of a duo as there is in the NHL, leaving Couture likely still stuck on the second line, except now absent Marleau, with whom he skated in the 2015-16 playoffs on his way to league-leading scoring. Although Couture could opt to leave San Jose in 2019, by then he’ll be 30, so it might be that Couture’s full potential will turn out to have been unrealized when all is said and done.

Patrick Eaves (Born: May 1, 1984; Previous career high in points: 51 in 2016-17)

With the lowest career high point total among the voting choices, Eaves shocked the fantasy world in 2016-17 perhaps less by posting those 51 points than by simply managing to stay healthy enough to do so in the first place. After all, this is a player who has been an NHL regular for most of the last ten years yet managed only twice to play more than 65 games in a season and had last done so in 2008-09. So the fact he posted a career high and stayed healthy in a season which happened to be just before he was a UFA – let’s just say it raised eyebrows, and not the good kind. Then again, Eaves did once tally 27 points in 47 games for the Stars, so scoring ability has apparently been there all along. Also, his luck metrics for 2016-17 were reasonable, and thus seemingly sustainable. Beyond that – his new deal likely goes a long way toward him continuing to be used in Anaheim’s most productive situations. We’ll just have to see whether his effort and commitment to good health is maintained now that he has to carry around a somewhat more stuffed wallet.

Patric Hornqvist (Born: January 1, 1987; Previous career high in points: 53 in 2016-17)

Every season expectations are sky high for Hornqvist, yet his career high remains 53 points. Whether it’s due to injuries or inconsistency, he never can seem to string together what it takes to truly break out. The Pens had their highest shooting percentage at 5×4 while Hornqvist was on the ice, and historically have liked to have a “mule” type out there with the man advantage, so his spot on PP1 should be safe. Yet with the emergence of Conor Sheary and Jake Guentzel, not to mention the looming arrival of Daniel Sprong, it might be that the playoffs – where Hornqvist often skated in the bottom six – could have offered a glimpse into Hornqvist’s future, which, in turn, might look like the disappointing last couple of seasons for the now departed Chris Kunitz. And although Hornqvist can leave Pittsburgh as a UFA after this coming campaign, he’ll be 31 and one would have to wonder if he could succeed anywhere else if he never was able to put together a great season even after being given all sorts of chances for the high-powered Pens.

Milan Lucic (Born: June 7, 1988; Previous career high in points: 62 in 2010-11)

Although Patrick Maroon has seemingly stepped into the role of protector for Connor McDavid at even strength, Lucic’s large contract should earn him a re-audition alongside McDavid at some point. Yet even if Lucic’s consolation prize is merely a spot on the second line, that might be enough to push him to a career best if it’s next to Leon Draisaitl, who’s emerging as a star in his own right. Also, Lucic’s role on Edmonton’s PP1 looks to be set in stone, as he produced an easily career best 25 PPPts last season. If the offensive floodgates open in Edmonton, it could create a rising tide that lifts many boats – including Lucic’s – to career bests.

Gustav Nyquist (Born: September 1, 1989; Previous career high in points: 54 in 2014-15)

After following up his remarkable 48 points in 57 games in 2013-14 with 54 points in 2014-15, who’d have thought Nyquist would not only fail to set a career best in the next two seasons but actually not even surpass the 50-point mark in either campaign? The good news was Nyquist finished 2016-17 red hot, with nearly point per game output over Detroit’s last dozen games. The problem is the only time Nyquist has managed to string together an extended stretch of strong play was 2013-14, when his luck metrics were off the charts, led by his team’s 10.97% shooting percentage when he was on the ice at 5×5. There’s also the matter of Nyquist’s SOG rate over the past two seasons being stuck just above two per game, which is down sharply from his 2013-14 and even 2014-15 rates. While it’s possible Nyquist is a Cam Atkinson breakout waiting to happen, it’s also at least as likely that he’ll turn into Patric Hornqvist 2.0, where we end up wondering every year if he’ll finally not disappoint versus expectations.

Kyle Okposo (Born: April 16, 1988; Previous career high in points: 69 in 2014-15)

The temptation is to think that if Okposo managed to reach only 69 points while playing with John Tavares, how will he now – at age 29 – do better? For one, Okposo’s contract all but assures he’ll play alongside budding fantasy stud Jack Eichel, who might prove to be every bit Tavares’ equal, if not perhaps even more productive. Then again, the Islanders had a 5×5 team shooting percentage of 10.24 in Okposo’s best season, and his rate has dropped each season since then, including to a weak 6.84% last season. But on the plus side, Okposo’s SOG rate has actually gone up since his 69-point campaign and his PP usage has held steady. If he’s fully back to health and Eichel keeps improving, a 70-point season for Okposo riding shotgun isn’t out of the question.

T.J. Oshie (Born: December 23, 1986; Previous career high in points: 60 in 2013-14)

Amazingly, the nearly 31-year-old Oshie’s career best is only 60 points; however, the explanation as to why it’s so low is also one of the reasons he might not be able to best it – when he does well, he also finds a way to get hurt. In fact, had he not been injured in 2016-17, his scoring rate would’ve translated to 67 points, and the same goes for 2014-15, when his scoring rate projected to 63 points over an 82-game campaign. Based on the huge deal he signed, Oshie should continue to be used in the same beneficial way by the Caps going forward; yet will the team be as potent after losing several key assets and with Nicklas Backstrom turning 30 in November not to mention Alex Ovechkin looking less and less like a superstar sniper with each passing year? Then there’s the matter of Oshie’s astronomically high shooting percentage last season, which also translated into an entirely unsustainable 11.06% team shooting percentage at 5×5. Beyond that, his ice time was only 17:33, which was not as high as players who normally best the 60 point threshold. Long story short, although at first glance it looks like Oshie should be a lock for 60+, a lot more would have to go right than would first seem in order for that actually to happen.

Max Pacioretty (Born: November 20, 1988; Previous career high in points: 67 in 2014-15 and 2016-17)

Somehow Pacioretty has scored 60+ points five separate times in his career, yet seems to have a ceiling of 67, which he’s now reached in two separate seasons. Some of the blame likely is due to Pacioretty not having a lot of firepower around him, a situation that certainly wasn’t improved by the Habs losing Alexander Radulov and gaining only the aged Ales Hemsky. Still, with Pacioretty knowing he must do more on his own, perhaps his scoring might benefit? Of course the question becomes how much of a load can he carry when he’s just about to turn 29, and playing for a coach who emphasizes a style that’s not conductive to scoring. Pacioretty is one of the safest bets in fantasy, but banking on him to do better at this age, and under these circumstances, might not be wise.

David Perron (Born: May 28, 1988; Previous career high in points: 57 in 2013-14)

Vegas will be the fourth team Perron played for since his 57-point season just a couple of years ago, and prior to 2016-17 he hadn’t finished with more than 42 points in an NHL campaign since way back in 2009-10. Yet as poolies old enough to remember the days of more widespread expansion know full well, some players can explode in these types of situations, including guys like Perron, who can finally step into a “the guy” role after only previously being a supporting player. Whether Perron has enough left in the tank, and can perform with the spotlight squarely on him isn’t clear, but what is true is all but one expansion team since 1990-91 featured a 50+ point scorer, so offense can exist on these teams.

Alexander Radulov (Born: July 5, 1986; Previous career high in points: 58 in 2007-08)

Poolies are drooling at the prospect of Radulov lining up alongside Tyler Seguin and Jamie Benn, as has been floated out there by Dallas brass. Yet after a red-hot start, Radulov was M.I.A. for a large chunk of the season, and that was despite being on a “prove yourself” one-year deal. Now that he has his large contract, will he find the nightly motivation to play hard? And let’s not forget he’ll be suiting up for Ken Hitchcock, who’s not known for icing high scoring teams and who, in the past, had serious issues with another “enigmatic” Russian talent in Nikita Filatov. Radulov’s situation is seemingly one where he could coast to a career high; but more so than perhaps anyone else on this list, he personifies a high-risk, high-reward fantasy gamble.

James van Riemsdyk (Born: May 4, 1989; Previous career high in points: 62 in 2016-17)

Much like Bozak, the veteran JVR fit in well with the Maple Leaf youth brigade, on his way to a career high. But JVR is a lame duck in Toronto; it’s only a question of whether his ticket out of town is punched before, during, or after this season, since he’s simply too expensive for them to retain, especially with Patrick Marleau now having been brought on board. Looking at his stats, JVR is much like Pacioretty in that his scoring is fairly predictable; however, unlike MaxPac JVR has played for high octane teams and been put on loaded lines time and time again. Between that and his age creeping up, what we saw from JVR last season might just go down as his career high.

Kyle Turris (Born: August 14, 1989; Previous career high in points: 64 in 2014-15)

After he posted those 64 points in 2014-15, Turris hasn’t been quite the same player. While he’s unquestionably talented, now that he’s on the other side of peak forward age it’s not clear whether he’ll be able to surpass his previous high. And his data is inconclusive. For example, over the last two seasons his 5×5 team shooting percentage has dropped from right at or slightly above 9.0% to barely 7.0%. Is that a somewhat prolonged but still temporary period of bad luck, or instead the new normal as Turris ages? What might be most telling is his SOG volume being down; yet with his ice time still strong, it’s hard to write him off entirely. Tough call to decide how he’ll fare.

Blake Wheeler (Born: August 31, 1986; Previous career high in points: 78 in 2015-16)

Although his is by far the highest career best among the voting choices, does him surpassing it seem that much more out of the question than most of the other voting choices? Remember that poolies figured his 78-point 2015-16 campaign was a fluke and he’d drop like a stone for 2016-17. Yet Wheeler was nearly as great, and seems poised to be as integral a part of the up-and-coming Jets as their young forward core of Mark Scheifele, Patrick Laine, and Nikolaj Ehlers. In fact, Wheeler actually saw more ice time and took more shots last season on his way to 74 points than he did in his 78 point campaign, and all despite a team 5×5 shooting percentage was his lowest since 2010-11, suggesting there is room for him to go back to (or even above) that 78 point threshold.

Mats Zuccarello (Born: September 1, 1989; Previous career high in points: 61 in 2015-16)

Like Pacioretty and JVR, Zuccarello is a steady eddie, in his case finishing with 59-61 points in three of the past four seasons. Although he’ll be held back by the Alain Vigneault system, he fell only two points short of his career high last season despite an atypically low offensive zone starting percentage and team shooting percentage at 5×5. Then again, if you’re a “glass half empty” poolie, you could argue those drops were a sign of the team starting to deemphasize the diminutive Norwegian. Even if his time in New York ends uneventfully, Zuccarello will be 30 when he’s a UFA, and it’s hard to bet against him working hard enough to succeed if put into a more favorable offensive situation on a new team.

Voting

To vote, click on this link. Voting will remain open through July 30. As a reminder, vote for any and all players you think WILL (in 2017-18 or a later season) surpass their previous career high despite being older than the “peak” age for NHL forwards. Be sure to come back next week for a bonus third summer cage match tournament, where, in the spirit of my write-up about Alexander Radulov, you’ll be voting to decide who are the most “feast or famine” fantasy forwards for 2017-18. See you then!