Potential Bounce-Backs in the News: Spezza, Duclair, Duchene, Bennett, plus more…

There are many potential bounce-back candidates, since it’s not hard to find players whose point totals have decreased from the previous season. Let’s examine a few players in which this has been the case. These players have also been in the news the past few days for various reasons.

*

According to the Dallas Morning News via NHL.com, Ken Hitchcock intends to use Jason Spezza at both center and left wing this coming season. Spezza is currently eligible as a center and a right wing with Yahoo, so it’s possible that he could be the versatile forward that is eligible at all three forward positions this coming season.

This potential eligibility at all three forward positions could provide a much-needed boost for Spezza’s fantasy value. He is coming off the worst goal and point totals of his career (15 goals and 50 points) since his rookie season, and his minus-18 sunk his fantasy value even further. His lack of scoring success can be attributed to the fact that he took just 149 shots when we’ve become accustomed to him taking at least 200 over the past few seasons.

Unfortunately, Spezza won’t have the benefit of playing alongside Tyler Seguin and Jamie Benn. As was widely predicted, Alexander Radulov is expected to take on that role. In fact, Spezza and new acquisition Martin Hanzal are expected to play on separate lines. I would assume Spezza would be on the second line and Hanzal on the third line. Hitchcock also believes that Radek Faksa will play on the Hanzal line.

The Stars’ scoring depth takes a major dip after the first line, which doesn’t bode well for Spezza. The one potential breakout candidate for the Stars is Brett Ritchie, who averaged under 13 minutes per game last season. Ritchie stands to experience a significant boost in icetime if he plays on the Spezza line and perhaps even on the Hanzal line. As a result, Ritchie should be considered a potential sleeper candidate in many formats.

*

Over the weekend the Arizona Coyotes signed Anthony Duclair to a one-year, $1.2 million contract. If that seems like a small contract for a player of his upside, it’s because he himself said that he wants to prove himself after struggling last season.

If you simply looked at Duclair’s goal and assist totals from 2015-16 (20 goals, 24 assists), you would have assumed bigger and better things were ahead in 2016-17. Particularly since eight of his goals came with the man advantage. But a 19 percent shooting accuracy from just 105 shots taken should have raised a red flag if you reached for Duclair as a sleeper. Not only was he unable to replicate his 2015-16 season (just 15 points in 58 games), but he was also sent to the AHL for part of the season.

Which version of Duclair will we see in 2017-18? Your best bet would be to predict something in the middle. Don’t expect him to be demoted to the AHL again now that he’s in another contract year, but don’t expect him to shoot 19 percent again. If he is to reach 20 goals again, he will likely need to take a minimum of 150 shots. Actually, 200 might be a more realistic number, as he would reach 20 goals with a 10 percent shot success rate. Duclair has never shot more than 6.6 percent in either of his other two seasons.

Duclair is probably best left for deep leagues. But once the young Arizona scoring attack breaks out, there’s a good chance that he will be along for the ride.

*

Via Mile High Hockey, there were some interesting comments made by TSN’s Darren Dreger on WGR550 radio a few days ago regarding Matt Duchene’s situation with the Colorado Avalanche. It sounds as though Duchene and his agent have expected a trade to happen this offseason. With training camp starting in less than two weeks, Avalanche GM Joe Sakic won’t be dealing from a position of strength if he is being pushed to make a deal in order to avoid having a player at camp that doesn’t want to be there.

We figured Jordan Eberle would be traded this summer, and he was. We thought the same about Duchene, and he wasn’t. So for now, you will need to rank Duchene as though he is a member of the Avalanche. Not ideal, particularly if your league counts plus/minus. But there’s great value to be had. In the NHL.com rankings, Duchene currently sits at 159^th, keeping company with the likes of Patrick Maroon and the unproven Vadim Shipachyov. Savvy keeper owners won’t have given up on him, though, as he still ranks 59^th in Dobber’s keeper skater rankings.

Throughout his career, Duchene has usually ranged between 55 and 70 points. Yet last season Duchene sucked the life out of your fantasy team if he occupied a space there for the entire season (hello!), scoring just 41 points to go with a dreadful minus-34. If the Avalanche can’t possibly be any worse than they were in 2016-17, then an improvement is almost a certainty for Duchene. But you may still have to look away at his plus/minus the same way your naked eye hopefully looked away from the recent solar eclipse.

He won’t reach any career highs as long as he stays with the Avalanche in their current state, but he should bounce back to some extent in 2017-18. Leave some space for him in the later rounds of your draft. Plus if there’s fire where the smoke is coming from, then a Duchene trade could vault him back up the rankings, possibly back into the top-100 territory where he is more often drafted from. Of course if he is traded, check back at Dobber Hockey as we will as per usual provide the fantasy take of the deal.

*

There’s some concern right now that Andreas Athanasiou or Sam Bennett could bolt to Europe if they are not signed soon, although the concern seems to be greater with Athanasiou right now. But Flames fans and Bennett owners might be worried anyway, considering how Johnny Gaudreau was not signed until a few days before the season started.
 

Likelihood something gets done with the Flames. https://t.co/6NsroCcwoq

— Darren Dreger (@DarrenDreger) September 5, 2017

Andreas Athanasiou in ongoing discussions with KHL teams. Unless something shifts in Detroit, indications are Athanasiou will jump to KHL.

— Darren Dreger (@DarrenDreger) September 5, 2017

As we wait for both, it seems natural to pass on both for fantasy drafts if they happen to occur in the near future. Just to compare and contrast, though: What if I told you that Athanasiou outscored Bennett (29 points to 26 points) while playing in 17 fewer games? Even though Bennett is the more highly-touted prospect, how confident are you in him this coming season? Especially if he misses part or all of training camp?

It's easy to forget that Bennett is only 21 and he has just two full seasons under his belt. So he still has that magical fourth season ahead of him, just not this season. Now might be the time to buy low (maybe even very low) on him in keeper leagues from an owner who is expecting the more instant results that other players of a similar age have already been able to provide.

One bright spot in some leagues from an otherwise dreary season from Bennett: He accumulated 75 penalty minutes last season, which was third on the Flames. Combine that with his 127 hits last season and he shows added value in leagues that count any physical categories.

*

For more fantasy hockey information, follow me on Twitter @Ian_Gooding.