Around this time last year, I looked at some breakout candidates for the 2017-18 season. Specifically, I looked for players who failed to reach 55 points who stood a good chance of clearing 65 the following year. This is something we’ll do again, but first let’s look at how last year’s breakout candidates have faired:

Throw enough shit at the wall and something’s bound to stick, am I right? Still, this is a pretty good success rate for a list made in March of last year, well before the draft, free agency, coaching moves and training camp have provided added information. In particular, the injured superstar and renaissance sections provided a bounty of good options. If you bagged Kopitar, Barkov, Hall and Huberdeau there’s a good chance you’re dominating your league.

On Tuesday I looked at a bunch of guys who fit the injured superstar or renaissance tropes, although I wouldn’t necessarily bet on a good chunk of those getting to the 65-point plateau. You could also add Auston Matthews, Jeff Carter, Alexander Wennberg, Kyle Palmieri, and Mika Zibanejad to the injured list.

With those two lists sections well pegged, let’s run down our other two tropes:

The Classic Breakout

This is the archetype with the most potential because players typically peak early. Everyone should be looking for players in years 3-5 around ages 20-23 who might pop up in a bigger role next season. One of the best indicators of future success is 5-on-5 scoring rate. Several names jump out with over 2.0 P/60 at 5-on-5 as youngsters including:

Off that list I’d rank them:

Hischier

Fiala

Konecny

Connor

DeBrincat

Everyone else on that list probably needs more time for a bigger role to emerge. These five have grabbed large roles and could explode with even more usage.

Hischier has been helped by Taylor Hall’s MVP run, and may not be quite as fortunate if Hall takes a step backwards. On the other hand, Hall has also been helped by Hischier. This is a duo that should stick for the foreseeable future. Get Hischier some top power play unit time and he’ll bust out.

There probably aren’t any more minutes for Fiala to grab on a loaded Preds roster. He’s just so damned good that he can’t be left off.

Konecny took off after getting promoted to the Flyers’ top line. Can he carry that over in a full season there? What if Giroux regresses again? Still without top PP time there’s another level for Konecny to hit, although the path to more PP time is blocked.

Connor is entrenched on Winnipeg’s top line and top PP unit. There’s so much young talent in Winnipeg that he could conceivably be phased out. On the other hand, he should improve with each passing year.

DeBrincat probably has the clearest path to a breakout. What he accomplished without much PP or Patrick Kane exposure is truly remarkable. It seems inevitable that DeBrincat will fill the void left by Artemi Panarin as a dynamic goal-scoring righty across from Kane.

Other players who didn’t hit the 2.00 P/60 mark who I like nonetheless:

This time last year I wasn’t big on Schmaltz. I am now. He’s already locked in as Kane’s centerman. Give him another year of growth and let’s see what he can do.

I don’t like that the Rangers are removing talent, but there are some indications that they aren’t intent on being bad for long. They could make splashes in free agency this summer that vault them back into contention. You could also argue that the less available options for Alain Vigneault to block Buchnevich with the better. Buchnevich seems destined for stardom. He’s as good a bet as there is for a breakout. It’s a matter of when, not if.

The rest of these guys might be a couple of years away but have flashed intriguing upside.

The Post-Hype Sleeper

With how much information there is out there these days, basically anyone who appeared on last year’s breakout list but failed to breakout becomes a post-hype sleeper. Is there a MacKinnon on this list? Unlikely, but I really like what Tkachuk and Horvat have to offer.

Tkachuk appeared on the verge of busting out this year until injuries caught up to him. It’s also worth noting how much the shooting percentages worked against the 3M line this season. With better 5-on-5 results Tkachuk could have been near a point-per-game pace. He proved himself the best net-front option on the Flames, which opens up big potential alongside Johnny Gaudreau.

Horvat and Brock Boeser lit the world on fire for a few weeks early on before injuries derailed both of them. Let’s see what they can do in 82 games alongside one another. I’d bet on both eclipsing 65 points.

Who do you think might go from sub-55 to plus-65 next season?

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Watch out for a suspension to Brayden Schenn after this hit to the head on David Krejci:

Schenn's hit on Krejci. Schenn was given two minutes for charging. #stlblues pic.twitter.com/s5CaCZuEDl

— Cristiano Simonetta (@CMS_74_) March 22, 2018

Amazingly, Krejci finished the game, but you never know with head injuries. The Bruins can’t afford to have any more players get banged up.

Ryan Donato scored again. That’s four points in two games for the rookie. Hot start and in top-six minutes. He could prove very useful these next few weeks.

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Sidney Crosby, ladies and gentlemen:

Sidney Crosby's hand-eye coordination remains undefeated pic.twitter.com/hfL90DVgsj

— Dimitri Filipovic (@DimFilipovic) March 22, 2018

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Dylan Strome was recalled yesterday and not one of the fake recalls he has experienced in the past month. He got into the lineup for 12:18, including secondary PP time, and scored his second career goal. It’s been awfully slow getting his NHL career going but he has destroyed the AHL.

I’m more interested in the top line options for Arizona, however. Derek Stepan has 10 points in the last 10 games. Clayton Keller has 19 points in the last 20 games! Brendan Perlini has been in the mix with those two but hasn’t been productive. Richard Panik has been up on that line and has points in three straight.

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Due to concerns over concussions Mark Borowiecki is going to start turning down fights. Smart choice. The league has swung away from the use of enforcers and fighting in general, but there are still a few reliable scrappers. Scratch Borowiecki off that list. For those in multi-category leagues, this will hurt Borowiecki’s value. Although he is still liable to take a bunch of minor penalties, as well as piling up massive hit totals.

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While we’re on concussions, there are some interesting results from a study on the careers of players after suffering concussions:

Navarro said players who had publicly reported concussions were compared to players who didn’t. The players with concussions had a 14.6 per cent chance of playing in the NHL five years after the injury. Players who didn’t have reported concussions had a 43.7 per cent chance of being in the NHL five years later.

That’s alarming but doesn’t necessarily mean that having a concussion leaves a player marked for failure. Fantasy relevant players are going to earn more chances to rediscover their play by virtue of having previously put up large point totals. It also helps that those point totals tend to lead to long-term contracts that buy financial security and a guaranteed roster spot. However, even in the case of players on long-term deals there is the fear of long-term injury reserve as has befallen players like Marc Savard.

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If you haven’t yet, please check out Cam Robinson’s latest Top 100 Draft Prospects rankings.

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Thanks for reading. You can follow me on Twitter @SteveLaidlaw.