Part of the beauty of this column is two very different players can be rightfully compared. Take this week’s battle, pitting Evander Kane against Yanni Gourde. Although Kane is a veteran of almost 500 more NHL games than Gourde, the two are almost identical in age and have points outputs since last season which beg for comparison. Which should you pin your hopes on for 2018-19 and beyond? Cage Match is on the case!

Career Path and Contract Status

Kane, 27, was selected fourth overall by the Thrashers (i.e., Jets) and went directly into the NHL for his age 18 season, managing 26 points in 66 games. From there he appeared to be on a fast track to NHL (and fantasy) success, as his points output rose in each of the next two seasons, first to 43 in 72 games then 57 (with 30 goals) in 74 contests. Little did poolies know, however, those 57 points would still be his high in single season scoring as of today. What happened in the interim is a well-documented trail of injuries and unfulfilled expectations. But last season Kane rebounded to the tune of 54 points in 78 games, with 14 of those points coming in 17 games with San Jose, to whom he was dealt at the deadline and with whom he signed in May. Thus far this season he’s run hot and cold but still stood at 15 points in 21 games.

Gourde, who turns 27 in December, was undrafted and went unsigned even after leading the QMJHL in scoring in 2011-12. After toiling for the next two years in the AHL and ECHL, Gourde signed with Tampa Bay in March 2014. For the next two seasons, he played primarily in the AHL, tallying 101 points in 141 games. In 2016-17 it was mainly more of the same, although he did manage to appear in 20 NHL games, scoring eight points but tallying six of those points in his final eight contests. Based on that strong end of season showing he started 2017-18 in the NHL and played well enough to stay with the big club for the entire campaign, finishing with 64 points but with 31 coming in his last 32 games. So far for 2018-19, he’s showing no signs of slowing down, as he’s flirted with a point per game scoring for most of the season thus far.

Kane’s is on year one of a seven-year contract counting $7M per season against the cap, while Gourde will ding the cap at just $1M for 2018-19 before his recently signed six-year deal kicks in and which will carry an annual cap hit of $5.16M.

Ice Time (data in this and the other tables is current through November 18th)

Kane’s lack of production in Buffalo certainly can’t be blamed on ice time. Moreover, upon his arrival in San Jose, they rolled the red carpet in the form of the highest per game Ice Time among forwards. And although he only ranked fourth in PP Time, San Jose ran a 4F, 1D top unit last season, meaning he was receiving PP1 time. Kane responded with a 67 point scoring pace in 17 games for the Sharks.

Fast forward to 2018-19, and despite a fat contract Kane has seen his minutes drop both at ES and on the PP. This is most likely due to the emergence of Timo Meier, who’s essentially stepped into Kane’s envisioned “spot.” Even still, Kane is entrenched within the top six and still seeing upwards of 2:00 per game on the PP. It also remains to be seen whether Meier can keep up his blistering pace; but even if he does, the Sharks have forty-nine million reasons to ensure Kane gets deployment that is conductive to scoring, so worst case scenario his ice time goes no lower than where it is now, in which case he still could be a 60+ point player.

As for Gourde, he plays on a deep Tampa squad, such that his 17:10 per game ranks third among team forwards but is only 38 seconds behind Nikita Kucherov. Regardless of how productive Tampa’s offense is, however, that’s not ice time which even 70 point scorers tend to receive. Need proof? If Gourde was to play 82 games at this ice time pace, he’d end up with roughly 1400 minutes. And of the 221 total instances of 70+ point scorers in 75+ games that occurred since 2007-08, only ten played under 1400 minutes, with only three reaching the 75+ point mark. Beyond that, of the ten, more than half (i.e., six) were either age 24 or younger when they met the criteria. Also, despite their low season-long total ice time numbers, half of the ten skated for at least 3:00 per game for the man advantage and none for lower than Gourde’s current 2:07 per game. Gourde may be skilled, but talent can only get one so far in fantasy; and although past results don’t always bear upon the present, the reality is with his deployment he might be riding a prolonged wave of unsustainable good luck. We’ll see below.

Secondary Categories

If Kane’s huge totals in PIM, Hits, and SOG are surprising, chances are you need more help than this column can provide. Just how elite was Kane in these areas? Since Hits were first recorded in 1997-98, just one other player (Alex Ovechkin) had a season of 4.1+ SOG and 2.5+ Hits, doing so a total of eight times. But Ovi only once barely averaged even one PIM per game, making Kane’s 2015-16 season one for the multi-cat ages.

Recently Kane has seen his SOG stay sky high and his PIMs remain at roughly similar levels; however, his Hits have dropped somewhat. Of course, if the result is Kane scoring at a pace like he has since coming to San Jose, poolies would gladly take a tad fewer Hits as a tradeoff.

Where concern arises is in Kane’s PPPts. Only once in his entire career has he tallied double digits in PPPts; and his total going into this season was 55 in 574 games, for not even one PPPt per ten games. To put that in better perspective, a total of 107 forwards received more cumulative PP minutes than Kane between 2009-10 and 2017-18 but 172 had more PPPts than his 55. Yet lo and behold while it’s still early Kane’s PPPt pace for 2018-19 would mark a career high, and, in turn, could lead to him seeing his PP Time increase. But even if it doesn’t, he could still see gains in that area, to solidify his scoring.

Turning to Gourde, this is not the kind of data one would expect from someone who’s been scoring at roughly a point per game pace for – stretching back to the second half of 2017-18 – nearly two-thirds of a season. Yes, his SOG and PP scoring rates are up versus 2017-18; but he’s not putting forth outputs that would be expected from someone likely to sustain even a 70+ point pace, especially – as noted above – given his ice times and despite being on a team as potent as Tampa Bay. Something smells fishy for sure, and his luck metrics might be where the stench ends up coming from.

Luck-Based Metrics

Early on Kane had a respectable team shooting percentage (from 7.62-9.11% in each of his first five seasons) but an average IPP of 65.8. More recently the script has flipped, with Kane factoring in a higher percentage of goals but with less scoring occurring while on the ice. This suggests Kane became less of a team player over time, although for what it’s worth his team shooting percentage was stable last season and is higher thus far for 2018-19, while at the same time he’s now into his third straight season of 71%+ IPP. Therefore, as a whole, it does appear that since coming to San Jose he is – at least thus far – more of a team player yet still with a nose for scoring. It also helps that even as his shot rate has remained high his average shot distance has shrunk each of the past two seasons and is down even further for 2018-19, suggesting he’s taking smarter, higher quality shots. Collectively this data supports Kane not having benefitted from unsustainable good luck in San Jose and being able to keep his production rate at 60 to 65+ points.

As for Gourde, sure enough, his luck metrics are high. The good news is his IPP was above 70% last season, suggesting a propensity to factor into scoring even as Tampa Bay put him on various lines. And the fact that he was able to play an entire season at an 11.4% team shooting percentage suggests although odds are that number will drop somewhat this season – especially when coupled with such a low OZ% – it might still stay elevated. After all, there are some players who are talented enough to “run high” in that metric. Yet an IPP of 87% isn’t remotely sustainable, as that’s at or above superstar levels. Even still – if that falls back to 70-75% and even if his team shooting percentage drops to closer to or even below 10%, he still could defy past precedent and finish at or near the 70 point mark, especially given the team he plays for.

Who Wins?

In multi-cats it’s Kane; but that was never much in doubt. The question was whether Kane’s “new leaf” on the Sharks would be enough to make him the choice in straight points leagues over Gourde.

Both come with question marks; but in the end, Gourde gets the slight nod because of his potent team and strong IPP showing as a rookie plus, whether fair or not, Kane’s history of disappointment. Also, although Gourde’s SOG and PPPts aren’t high they’re trending up and have room to grow further, as does his ice time. On the other hand, Kane won’t be able to shoot more than he is now and his lack of success on the PP has gone on long enough to doubt that it’s going to be overcome all of the sudden in San Jose. Beyond that, even when Kane was given all the ice time he could handle at ES and on PP1, he still only scored at a 67 point pace, so chances are with the ongoing break out of Timo Meier Kane’s deployment will stay subpar and keep Kane’s ceiling at 60 points, with 55 as realistic as him scoring 65.