One of the secrets of fantasy hockey is that Minnesota has been probably the best place for goalies to play for years now, or at least on the shortlist. Their system, it seems regardless of coach, does a very good job of forcing shots to the outside, making easier saves for goalies, which allows them to inflate save percentages almost artificially. Case in point, here are Minnesota's ranks by high-danger shot attempts allowed per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 the last five years, starting with 2015-16: 9^th, 1^st, 1^st, 1^st, 1^st. Not a mistake. They've allowed the fewest HD shot attempts/60 in each of the last four seasons. And yet, in none of those five seasons of great net-front defence were they top-10 by total shot attempts allowed/60. That means they're mid-pack at allowing shots, but allow the fewest HD shots. That, in turn, means a high ratio of medium-to-low danger shots for any Wild goalie. That is how a goalie can inflate a save percentage, provided they're still a decent goalie. It's why Devan Dubnyk was above average by overall save percentage in 2018-19 despite his underlying performance metrics, like expected GSA, being atrocious. The system helps bad goalies look average and average goalies look better.

All this leads to the point of this post: the Minnesota Wild signed goalie Cam Talbot to a three-year deal carrying an AAV around $3.7M.

What the Wild get

We already broke down why going to Minnesota is good for any goalie, so let's get to Talbot.

Talbot has only had one really bad year, and that was 2018-19 in Edmonton, and the 2018-19 Oilers were a bottom-third defensive team by both expected goals against and high-danger chances allowed. Both the 15-16 and 16-17 Oilers were better defensive teams, though not by much. By the same token, whether in Edmonton, briefly in Philadelphia, or then in Calgary, by expected GSA, Talbot hasn't had a good year since 2016-17.

This is where the Wild will help. Talbot doesn't need to be John Gibson or Connor Hellebuyck to have a good season. He can be like Thomas Greiss or Anton Khudobin and have a good fantasy season because of how well Minnesota suppresses shot quality.

The key here is there probably isn't much to challenge him. Adding Talbot likely means another year in the AHL for Kaapo Kahkonen and the other guy to worry about is Alex Stalock. If it comes to the point where Stalock is consistently the starter, something went horribly wrong. I suspect this means 50-55 Talbot starts if he's healthy.

As I'm writing this, there are rumours of another goalie going to Calgary, which would hurt David Rittich. Until that's finalized, though, Talbot leaving helps.

Who this helps

Cam Talbot

David Rittich

Who this hurts

Kaapo Kahkonen

Alex Stalock