Ramblings: Top Frozen Tools Searches – Texier, Severson, Gusev, Beauvillier (Nov 21)
Ian Gooding
2020-11-21
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If you frequent the Ramblings, you might know by now that I like to discuss some of the top Frozen Tools searches from the past week and why they might be popular searches. On this one, I'm going to back to the top Frozen Tools searches over the past two weeks.
With just 13 points in 36 games in 2019-20, Texier may not grab your attention in upcoming fantasy drafts. Yet there are signs that the 21-year-old might be in for a bigger leap in 2020-21 and that he would make a solid deep sleeper.
During the postseason, Texier's most frequent center was first-liner Pierre-Luc Dubois, with either Oliver Bjorkstrand or Cam Atkinson as the other winger. Add to that the fact that Gustav Nyquist will miss the start of the season with shoulder surgery, and Texier is projected to retain a spot on the top line. The offseason acquisitions of Max Domi and Mikko Koivu will also allow Texier to focus on scoring and not as many of the defensive responsibilities that come with being a center.
If Texier is being used on the top line, expect his power-play minutes to increase. Maybe not to first-unit levels, but at least from the 0:33 PPTOI that he averaged during the regular season. A sign that they will is the bump he received during the postseason, when he averaged 1:54 PPTOI, which were the equivalent of second-unit minutes. Better even-strength production will lead to more power-play minutes, and he's got a great opportunity at even strength.
Most teams probably wouldn't move a player as unproven as Texier onto the top line, even if he has upside. Columbus isn't a high-scoring team, though, as they finished 28th in team offense in 2019-20 with 2.57 GF/GP. It's a big leap of faith, and an opportunity that he may not receive again for a while if he can't take advantage.
One look at Severson's Frozen Tools page, and my eyes were drawn toward the plus/minus. Those are some rather large minus numbers – at least a minus-20 in each of the last two seasons and in three of his last four seasons. As well, Severson has never been a positive player in his six-year NHL career. Over the past four seasons, no player has a worse plus-minus than Severson (minus-86). That's the kind of damage that playing for a rebuilding team can do to your fantasy value. Adding Lindy Ruff as the head coach may not help that plus-minus, either.
Fantasy Take: Lindy Ruff Hired by New Jersey
This is why plus/minus often isn't fair, which is another argument for those shouting that plus/minus doesn't belong in fantasy leagues. Severson has led the Devils in icetime in each of the previous two seasons (over 22 minutes per game). As well, he has led Devils defensemen in scoring in three of the past four seasons, recording at least 30 points in each of those three seasons.
A low-key trade deadline deal that might help Severson's fantasy value is Sami Vatanen's trade to Carolina. Vatanen led Devils defenders in power-play time in 2019-20. Severson is not guaranteed first-unit minutes with P.K. Subban and Will Butcher also in the fold, but he seems like a strong bet for those minutes. As well, Severson had 12 points in the Devils' final 18 games while Vatanen was injured (he was traded while injured) and averaged 24 minutes in those games.
Don't expect a huge breakout from the 26-year-old Severson from what he has produced already. But if he can secure that PP1 role in 2020-21, then there are signs that he could be onto the first 40-point season of his career. Keep in mind that Severson might not hold the spot long term, as 2018 first-rounder Ty Smith could make his Devils debut this coming season. Smith was nearly a point-per-game player (0.98 PTS/GP) in 240 WHL games, so he possesses a higher long-term ceiling than Severson.
Let's stick with the Devils for the next player. We haven't seen them play since March, so chances are you haven't heard a lot from them since then. You may have even forgotten that Gusev made his long-awaited NHL debut in 2019-20, scoring 13 goals and 44 points in 66 games.
The Devils' 2019-20 season was disastrous enough that only two players were able to reach 40 points: Gusev and leading scorer Kyle Palmieri (45 points). Since both Gusev and Palmieri have just one year left on their contracts, they may not even be with the Devils by this time next year. Even with young pieces like Nico Hischier, Jack Hughes, and Alexander Holtz, the Devils could be a few seasons away from being competitive.
Even after a slow start that likely saw him get dropped from many fantasy teams, Gusev picked up the pace with 37 points in his last 50 games. As well, all of his 15 power-play points came after the first quarter of the season. At this point, there's no reason for him not to be on the Devils' first-unit power play. In addition, he finished just outside of the top 50 with 2.7 PTS/60 (minimum 15 GP). The next-highest Devil on that list is Palmieri, who finished with 2.4 PTS/60.
Gusev averaged 14:42 in icetime last season, which he's due for an upgrade on. That should help his fantasy value and make him a potential sleeper worth targeting. Keep in mind that a trade to a deeper contender could go either way – he could benefit from stronger linemates, or he could find himself as a secondary scorer buried down the depth chart.
I just saw this interesting question about keeping Gusev or Jack Hughes over at the Forum. The respondents seem to advocate keeping both Devils over Tomas Tatar, which I can get behind especially if you're looking beyond the coming season. I wouldn't be surprised to see Montreal 2019-20 scoring leader Tatar outscore both players in 2020-21, even though both Devils possess higher upside.
The Islanders may have been the one surprise team of the 2019-20 postseason. One major reason was the play of Beauvillier, who provided glimpses of what he is capable of during the Islanders' run. Beauvillier tied linemate Brock Nelson for the team lead in goals (9), while his 14 points in 22 games (0.64 PTS/GP) would have put him on pace for over 50 points. Nelson himself has been trending upward ever since John Tavares left Long Island. Does that mean it's worth betting the over on 50 points for Beauvillier over a full season?
At this point it's not wise to bet on a full 82-game season. However, Beauvillier averaged about three shots a game during the postseason, up about a shot per game on his regular-season pace. Had Beauvillier taken that many shots per game, he would have been on pace for his first 200-shot season and his second 20-goal season. Even without an increase in shots, Beauvillier likely would have scored 20 goals had the season not ended early. So yes, 50 points over a full season seems reachable, especially if the Islanders can demonstrate beyond the postseason that they're more than a lockdown defensive squad.
Want consistency? Beauvillier has ranged between 80 to 87 hits through each of his four seasons, as well as between 26 and 36 blocked shots. That's probably not why you're drafting him, but something I just thought I'd point out.
By the way, Dobber's Fantasy Guide Lowdown for the Islanders was on Beauvillier. That might explain the high number of searches.
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For more fantasy hockey discussion, or to reach out to me, you can follow me on Twitter @Ian_Gooding
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| Frequency |
 PIT Players
| |
|---|---|---|
| 21.0 | RICKARD RAKELL SIDNEY CROSBY ANTHONY BEAUVILLIER | |
| 18.7 | BRYAN RUST EVGENI MALKIN MICHAEL BUNTING | |
| 14.7 | JESSE PULJUJARVI SAM POULIN DREW O'CONNOR | |
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