Capped: A team-by-team buy-and-sell – Part 5

Alexander MacLean

2020-12-17

Week four is gone, and we're getting close to the holidays! If your fantasy team is in need of some holiday shopping, look no further. This week we're covering Montreal, Minnesota, Los Angeles, and Florida. You can find the previous weeks here, here, here, and here.

To reiterate for the uninitiated, this multi-week feature will cover each NHL team, analyzing one player to buy and one to sell. These recommendations will be based on their performance versus cap hit. That means in non-cap leagues, some of these suggestions may not be as relevant, but that doesn't mean the analysis isn't relevant. Generally, these players will either be riding new contracts into the season or be expected to have a large shift in value, for one reason or another. We went alphabetically last year, so this time we're going for the reverse.

 

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Montreal Canadiens

Buy: Tyler Toffoli

Current Cap Hit: $4,250,000

One of the best free agent signings of recent memory in general, and certainly near (or at) the top of the list for Marc Bergevin, Tyler Toffoli looks to settle in as the top line RW on a Montreal team gunning to make it back to the 16-team playoffs. At this price tag, all Toffoli would have to do is match his average output over the last few years with LA and Vancouver, and he would be a bargain. With Montreal he should get the same top deployment that he saw in Vancouver where he put up 10 points (six goals) in 10 games. The ice time may not be quite as high under Claude Julien, and he won't have Elias Pettersson feeding him pucks, however the situation in Montreal is still one that he could thrive in.

 

Sell: Carey Price

Current Cap Hit: $10,500,000

Price is one of the best goalies in the league. You will find no argument from me on that point.

However, for your fantasy team $10.5 million is a lot to pay, the Canadiens aren't a top team, and this year Price is set to see his lowest volume in a long-time due to the acquisition of Jake Allen. On top of that, Price's name value has climbed a little with his excellent showing in the NHL playoff bubble, and fantasy owners may want a piece of the action. Goaltending is unpredictable at the best of times, so it may be appealing to keep Price and what you think you know that he will give you. However, if former Vezina winner Sergei Bobrovsky can flop on his $10 million contract then rest assured that a 33-year-old Price can do the same.

 

Minnesota Wild

Buy: Matt Dumba

Current Cap Hit: $6,000,000

Count me among those who believe that Matt Dumba came back from his pectoral injury too early, and never quite got up to speed in the regular season. In the playoffs he only picked up one point, but firing three shots on net per game and seeing 24 minutes of ice time per game in regulation is a good sign that he is back to full strength. Dumba also saw the most power-play time of any of the Wild defencemen in the return to play action, and that would be a key to him realizing his 20 goal and 60+ point upside. He is a bit of a pricier risk in cap leagues, so for those of you with a cap crunch, beware. If you have the space to take a chance on Dumba's stock rocketing up, then try your best to get on board.

 

Sell: Nick Bonino

Current Cap Hit: $4,100,000

In Nashville last season Bonino had a perfect storm of good luck that saw him put up numbers that we hadn't seen since his Vancouver/Anaheim days (hands up if you even remember him playing there). Bonino shot over 17 percent and had a very high 1033 PDO which was in part fueled by some high shooting percentages by his teammates while on the ice with him. Bonino was starting two-thirds of the time in the defensive zone over the last three seasons, and sees much more time on the penalty kill than the powerplay. Joining a Minnesota team that is shallow at centre, don't expect his deployment to change. Sell high on his pace for a 20-goal season, and the possibility that he may get some exposure to Kevin Fiala or Kirill Kaprizov, because he won't.

 

Los Angeles Kings

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Buy: Cal Petersen

Current Cap Hit: $858,333

Does your league overvalue goalies? Is it tough to field a competitive starting roster with such a tight cap? Are you looking to try a different strategy? Look no further than answering any and all of those questions with the up-and-coming Cal Petersen. With two years left on his ELC, and only 19 career NHL starts to his name, Petersen won't cost too much either to acquire or against your cap. Adding him to your lineup should give you half of the LA Kings' starts, and Petersen has already shown that he can put up better than league average percentage numbers. Add in a high shot volume because he plays for the Kings, and the bonus of meaning you can allocate cap dollars towards your skater core, Petersen should be one of your main building blocks as you look to shake things up this offseason.

 

Sell: The Veterans

The core of the team that won two Stanley Cups is still hanging around, but not for long. With Jonathan Quick, Anze Kopitar, Jeff Carter, and Dustin Brown all 33 or older, and one of the top farm systems in the entire NHL the transition will be quick, and it may happen before we expect. It started last season with the emergence of Alex Iafallo, Gabriel Vilardi, and Blake Lizotte, and the older guard will continue to lose time and opportunity to the youth. Next season the expectations aren't high out of LA, so it should surprise no one if they shelter the young players into all of the offensive situations, and let the players like Brown and Kopitar take all of the tough assignments – to an extent even more extreme than last season. If you own one of the old guard in LA, it won't do you any good to hold them much longer.

 

Florida Panthers

Buy: Vinnie Hinostroza

Current Cap Hit: $1,000,000

Hinostroza was better than a 40-point player over the two seasons from 2017 to 2019, before being pushed down the lineup in Arizona. Now with the Panthers, Hinostroza is in an excellent spot to move up the lineup and be deployed with some other skilled players. With proper deployment now, 40 points should be the lower end of the expectations for Hinostroza, while a full season in the top six in addition to some powerplay exposure would mean he could push into the 50- to 60-point range.

 

Sell: Patric Hornqvist

Current Cap Hit: $5,300,000

On the flip side, Hornqvist is another new face for the Panthers but he saw excellent deployment with the Penguins last season. This year, he isn't guaranteed to have the same powerplay job that he was gifted with the loaded unit in Pittsburgh, and he's another year older (and another year slower). Hornqvist will be 34 by the time the season starts, and he has been on a downward trend for a few years. Unfortunately for his owners, Hornqvist has seen a decline in shots, hits, power-play points, and overall scoring trending through the last number of years, held up by exposure to top tier centres until last year. If Hornqvist doesn't end up on Aleksander Barkov's line (and he shouldn't because he won't be able to keep up) then he will struggle to produce for you in fantasy leagues. The lack of production will especially hurt with his current AAV, so do yourself a favour and unload him now while your league mates think that he might see a revival in Florida.

 

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All statistics are all pulled from FrozenTools, and all contract info from Capfriendly. Follow me on Twitter @alexdmaclean.

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