Dobber’s offseason fantasy hockey grades – New York Islanders

For the last 17 years (12 with The Hockey News) Dobber has reviewed each team from a fantasy-hockey standpoint and graded them.

The 18th annual review will appear here on DobberHockey throughout the ~~summer~~…er, winter. This is not a review of the likely performance on the ice or in the standings, but in the realm of fantasy hockey both for the season ahead as well as the foreseeable future. Offensively, will the team perform? Are there plenty of depth options worthy of owning in keeper leagues? What about over the next two or three years? These questions are what I take into consideration when looking at the depth chart and the player potential on that depth chart.

Enjoy!

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Gone – Devon Toews, Thomas Greiss, Derick Brassard, Tom Kuhnhackl

Incoming – Dmytro Timashov, Austin Czarnik, A.J. Greer

Impact of changes – Although Czarnik still holds that long-shot, Hail Mary, dark horse fantasy value in the sense that if he's given good linemates and nice ice time maybe he could do something, the truth is the Isles didn't add any impact players at all. Czarnik is now 28 and was never given a fair shake in Calgary. Nor in Boston, for that matter. But again – he's 28. That puts him last on the pecking order.

No, the big changes with the Islanders is in who they lost. With Greiss gone, the net belongs to Semyon Varlamov and rookie Ilya Sorokin. Varlamov will be the starter this season, the two will split starts in 2021-22, and Varlamov will be the backup to Sorokin in 2022-23. Sorokin is an elite prospect goaltender. That's not to say Sorokin doesn't have immediate value though. Keep in mind that Varlamov gets injured a lot, so Sorokin will get more starts than your typical backup.

The shedding of Toews opens up a ton of power-play time for the likes of Noah Dobson and Ryan Pulock. The latter will likely benefit the most from that. Pulock has been primarily used as a defensive defenseman so it will be nice to see what he can do in more of an offensive role. With Toews out of the way, we should see that very thing.

Ready for full-time – Sorokin is now 25 and finally coming over from Russia. He's not doing that to play AHL hockey. The NHL job is his and after seasons with a SV% of 0.935, 0.940 and 0.931 (over three years, totaling 117 games), you know he's potentially elite. He could (and should) steal the top job from Varlamov by season's end.

Sebastian Aho has to clear waivers now in order to be sent down. This should result in him getting a longer look in training camp. His production in the AHL (three years) has never dipped below 0.61 points-per-game, although that low point happened last season. If the 24-year-old makes the team, which I put at 50-50, it will be at Noah Dobson's expense.

Speaking of Dobson, he got into 34 games last season but that's because he was too good for the QMJHL and not eligible for the AHL. This season, he's eligible. And it's probably better that he get 19 minutes per game in the AHL than 12 in the NHL playing every other game. He was a scratch through most of the NHL playoffs in the summer, so a roster spot for him is far from being set in stone. Look for him to start the year in Bridgeport unless and until Aho falters.

Josh Ho-Sang, 24, is running out of chances to see his NHL dream come to fruition. Instead of being a sure thing, if he fell in line and followed the process, he's now a bit of a long shot. Highly-skilled in terms of his hands and his hockey sense, he still has consistency issues and of course that lingering reputation for attitude problems. The Isles' roster is full so he will need some luck with injuries – but isn't Covid just the thing that could sideline a few forwards at times? Ho-Sang has experienced some success when he does get to play in the NHL – 24 points in 53 career games. So the situation is one to watch.

New York Islanders prospect depth chart and fantasy upsides can be found here

Fantasy Outlook – After finishing 22^nd in league scoring in 2018-19, the the New York Islanders finished 21^st in league scoring last year. Mathew Barzal was the only player to produce at a 70-point pace, and besides him only Brock Nelson was on pace for 60. So this is essentially a team of 45- to 55-point fantasy players. Anthony Beauvillier has the potential to join that club, and Josh Bailey has been there before. I also think that with Toews gone, Pulock has a shot at being a 55-point defenseman (or the 56-game equivalent). But by and large, this is a team you want to own goalies from, but not so much the other players other than the names mentioned above.

There are a few prospects with intriguing fantasy upside in the system, such as Oliver Wahlstrom, Otto Koivula, Simon Holmstrom and Bode Wilde. But with a Barry Trotz-coached team, they need a game-breaker in order to boost the production of the supporting cast. The Islanders just don't have an Alex Ovechkin. So the players on this team will have a limited upside, other than perhaps Barzal, for the foreseeable future. It's scoring by committee, just like Trotz's Nashville days. So while this team may be a B+ and a playoff team in ‘real hockey’, the fantasy hockey grade is…not so great.

Fantasy Grade: C- (last year was D+)

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2020 Offseason Fantasy Hockey Grades