It's time to empty the mailbag for the final time not just in 2020 but also, fingers crossed, before the 2020-21 season begins. For new readers, this is a column where I answer your fantasy hockey questions while also giving advice that should be useful to all poolies even if they don't own the specific players being discussed. As a reminder, if you want your fantasy hockey question answered in the next mailbag, check out the end of the column, where I explain the ways to get it to me and as well as the details you should provide. The earlier you send me a question the more likely it is to be included, and the deeper dive I can provide with my reply.

This is Part I of the Mailbag. Part II will drop Thursday morning

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Question #1 (from Kevin)

I’m in a 12-team points-only league with 31-man teams (including feeder spots for rookies and prospects). Starting rosters are 12F, 5D, and 2G. I’m looking to compete this year after spending the last two years rebuilding from inheriting a bad team when I joined the league.

I’ve decided on six of my ten keepers: Auston Matthews, Jake Guentzel, Matthew Tkachuk, Sean Couturier, Zach Werenski, and Sergei Bobrovsky. My bubble guys are: Josh Bailey, Christian Dvorak, Phil Kessel, Alexander Radulov, Victor Arvidsson, Mikael Granlund, Tanner Pearson, and Drew Doughty. Do you agree with the six keepers I've already selected? If not, who should I swap out? If you do agree with the six, which four of the bubble players should I keep?

I also get to protect five of these six eligible rookies/prospects: Kaapo Kakko, Linus Ullmark, Pavel Francouz, Henry Jokiharju, Bowen Byram, and Jason Robertson, I’m leaning towards Robertson being the odd one man out, since F are less scarce than D or G. I also bought high on Jokiharju; and although I don’t strictly need to keep both of Ullmark and Francouz, I’m wondering if I should cover my bases by holding onto both.

Lastly, I have the first-overall pick in the next draft and top players I already know will be available (due to league rules that prevent protecting any given player for more than five consecutive years) include Patrick Kane, Jonathan Huberdeau, Sidney Crosby, Alexsander Barkov, Torey Krug, plus 2020 draft picks, notably Alexis Lafrenière. Position-wise, I’d benefit the most from Krug, but I obviously can’t reach for him given the pool of talented forwards available. ? I don’t have my third- or fourth-round picks, so I’m worried about getting screwed on my blueline by the middle of the draft. Should I keep the pick, trade it for a player, or trade down for more picks in rounds 2-5?

At the outset I'll be blunt – I don't think this team is likely to compete for the title in a 12 team league in view of the keeper options I'm seeing. The drop off from Matthews, Guentzel and Tkachuk is steep; and most of your possible keepers are already in, or soon will be entering, the downside of their career. As such, I would view the upcoming season as another step in your rebuild, since I fear that if you go all in not only is it highly unlikely you'd win but you could end up setting back your team in terms of its future.

For keepers, you do want the six you noted, plus I'd go with guys who will be most likely to perform well enough for you to trade in order to improve your roster, and/or who have name value. Doughty is a lock since he has the most name value and could rebound. I also like Arvidsson, since he was snake bit by injuries last season but is back to health and should be a lock for a spot in the top six spots and on PP1. I'm also taking Radulov, who, although showing his age, should be better than last season when he might have been playing hurt, plus he also has all-important name value. The last spot is tough. I think I'd go with Pearson, who'll be playing for a UFA deal and has a locked-in spot in the top six in Vancouver.

I ruled out Kessel as I think he's legitimately done being an impact player, plus Bailey and Granlund, who've shown more than Pearson in the past but likely won't match his output this season. Dvorak is intriguing for a team that is still rebuilding; however, if all goes well with your continued rebuild, he wouldn't be likely to make your keeper list for 2021-22.

Your rookies are a solid group, as Ullmark and Francouz both have a chance to become true #1 guys. They are must keeps. Byram oozes with potential, yet is hurt by the presence of Cale Makar, Samuel Girard and now Devon Toews. What I think happens is Colorado moves Byram or Girard as part of a Cup run this season or next. Either way, that should pave the way for Byram to get into the NHL and make a mark. He's a keep. As for Kaako, there's no sugarcoating how poor his 2019-20 was and I worry about his health conditions (diabetes and celiac) limiting him from being able to reach his full potential. But New York clearly isn't concerned; and even though Kakko might not pay dividends in 2020-21 or 2021-22, he still has long-term star potential until proven otherwise, so he too is a keep. The last spot comes down to Jokiharju or Robertson, and I'm leaning toward Roberston, as Dallas forwards is ageing and he's poised to make an impact if not in 2020-21 then 2021-22 whereas Jokiharju will be stuck behind Rasmus Dahlin and Rasmus Ristolainen. If you're hell-bent on keeping Jokiharju instead because of sunk costs, I'm okay with that, as perhaps he can turn out okay if Risto is moved.

As for your top pick, I'd shop it for sure. Chances are one of your fellow GMs will covet Lafrenière, such that you could get great draft picks in return. Or even if that's not the case, you might be able to land a player in the trade who you see as a keeper upgrade over who you can pick. If you do end up holding onto the pick and given your continued rebuild, I'd either take Crosby, as he will likely be the best guy to be able to trade during the season, or Huberdeau to build around, as he should be able to give your team 90+ points for a number of seasons to come, or Lafreniere if you want to swing for the fences.

And during 2020-21, your goal should be to do whatever you can to end up with the best ten keepers for 2021-22. To make that happen it likely means trading away Bobrovsky and Couturier during the season, plus, if they both pan out, one of Ullmark and Francouz. Make sure the players you draft are guys who you either will be able to sell or who will make good rebuilding keepers. So whereas other teams might not emphasize taking older players, you should look favorably upon some, with an eye toward trading them during the season. By the time you're making keeper decisions for 2021-22, you want to have ten locks, rather than "question mark guys" similar to those who'll comprise the majority of your keepers this season. Good luck!

Question #2 (from Chad)

My question is how you suggest allocating salary cap in an auction league. The specifics of my league are 14 team H2H keeper, starting 9F, 4D, 1G, with a minimum bench of 1F, 1D, 1G and 1Util. Scoring categories are G, A, SHG, GWG, Hat Tricks, Major penalties, W and GA. Players are signed to contract terms of one to three years, so number of keepers isn't defined. Rookies (less than 25 NHL games) are drafted to a five-year term and, if activated, cost 1% of available cap space.

As an example, I'm trying to decide if Torey Krug is worth 10% of my cap space or if I should try to trade him for a mid-round rookie draft pick to free up cap space. I'm also trying to determine if a guy like Jack Eichel is worth 20-24% of my cap space, or am I better off with two players who would cost, together, the same as Eichel and each give me 50-75% the fantasy points Eichel would produce?

So a minimum of 18 players must be owned, with the possibility of more if a team opts to draft a rookie, who then accounts for 1% of cap space if activated. If I understand correctly, by adding a rookie, you'd increase your roster size by approximately 5% at a cost of perhaps only 1% of your auction funds? If so, I'd be very eager to take chances on rookies, as if they succeed, then you have a player locked up for five seasons at a very cheap cost.

Looking at the players you mentioned, Eichel's scoring rate has increased each season; but he doesn't have much room for more SOG or ice time. As such, for him to get better he'll need players around him to improve. And although chances are that will occur over time, I'm still not sure Eichel is a worthwhile own at 20-24% of your total cap, as last season was the first where he was a true sniper, and in doing so he shot 50% better than what he'd done over his career to date. In a league like this, where goals are paramount, I worry that his goals per game rate will drop, making him likely not worth what he'd cost, especially adding in the fact he has zero career major penalties. As such, opting for two players who'd each provide 50-75% of Eichel's individual output might indeed be more worthwhile.

Krug too isn't a goal-scoring machine. Yes, he stands a very impressive sixth in cumulative points per game rate among all defensemen over the past four seasons; but care to guess where he ranks in goals per game over that same time period? Try 27th, behind the likes of Jared Spurgeon, Justin Faulk, Ryan Ellis, and Jeff Petry. Krug likely will be able to do just as well in St. Louis as he did in Boston, with that and his lower price time making it a closer call than Eichel. But due to his lack of goal scoring plus him having only eight career major penalties in over 500 NHL games, I feel he's not quite a keep at that price for this specific league. Good luck!

Question #3 (from Matt)

I’m in a 12-team league with five Keepers (18 roster spots). There's no cap, nor position requirements. I'm currently running a lineup of Nikita Kucherov, Elias Pettersson, Johnny Gaudreau, John Carlson, and Morgan Rielly and I’m on the hunt to for a potential keeper netminder to help get me over the hump. Categories for Goalies are W, SV%, GAA, and SO.

With the elite tier of goalies being kept (Andrei Vasilevsky, Connor Hellebuyck, Tuukka Rask, etc.) and given the current 1A/1B trend in the NHL, along with a run of picks that I have in the early rounds, I’m hoping to stack one of the coveted tandems for the coming season, namely Columbus, Vancouver, or the Islanders (Arizona and Carolina could also be options).

My instinct tells me to favor the Islanders, with Ilya Sorokin being a potential stud mentored by Semyon Varlamov. But Thatcher Demko/Braden Holtby in Vancouver are right up there and Columbus had success with Elvis Merzlikins/Joonas Korpisalo. Ideally I'd pick a tandem who'd help me in the standings but where a young netminder will emerge and be worth keeping and building around.

Out of those teams, and with those goals in mind, how would you rank the tandems?

At the outset, there also could be 1A/1B situations in New Jersey and Nashville, plus also on weaker teams like Los Angeles, Detroit and Chicago. Those should be considered as well, although probably not the last three due to, as noted, those teams being less competitive and, in turn, their goalies hurting you in your categories.

So with a total of seven tandems (Nashville, Arizona, New Jersey, Vancouver, Carolina, Columbus and the Islanders), the question is which would allow you to both do well in your categories in the here and now plus give you a chance at owning a young netminder who might become a coveted #1 guy in the not too distant future. Can any team equally serve both purposes?

Arizona and Columbus don't really qualify as having a young netminder who is waiting in the wings, yet they also might be among the best for your categories. Carolina also doesn't fit either and figures to lag behind what the Arizona or Columbus netminders could offer in terms of your stats. The Islanders have Sorokin; however, not only is Varlamov signed for several more years at a high salary, but Barry Trotz has shown he prefers a system in which no one goalie becomes "the guy." As such, even if (when?) Sorokin takes over as the #1, he's likely looking at starting ~60% of the team's games, which isn't ideal. Still, the two Islander goalies could end up with combined stats rivalling what you'd see from Arizona and/or Columbus tandems.

The other three teams each have a young goalie who fits the bill as a true #1 waiting in the wings. Juuse Saros in Nashville seemingly would be the earliest to assume the role of true #1, what with Pekka Rinne signed only through this season. New Jersey has Corey Crawford inked for two years, which also is the term of Holtby's contract. Of the three I like Nashville the best, as the picture, there isn't very cloudy plus the team has been very goalie friendly (second, fourth, and eleventh in terms of fewest goals allowed per game over the past three seasons). Vancouver is going to only get better as a team, and Holtby might prove to be ineffective, paving the way for Thatcher Demko to become a true #1 sooner. MacKenzie Blackwood played quite well for a poor team last season; the issue is Corey Crawford is being paid more than Mac, such that it'd be tough to not foresee Crawford staying in the picture for this season and next, plus unlike Holtby he seemed to be rejuvenated last season.

Overall, I'd prioritize the netminders on the Islanders, Columbus, and Arizona if you want to do the best in your categories, with the Islanders being the only one, on paper, with a young goaltender who could become a true #1, but also not being a team where that is likely to occur. Nashville would be the pick if you want a young goalie who'll most quickly become a true #1. Vancouver is the wild card, as Holtby has looked very shaky in recent seasons and Demko showed in the playoffs that he seems to be ready for prime time. New Jersey and Carolina are tandems I'd look to last, as I worry Crawford will be very active for both his seasons and New Jersey still has to improve, plus both Hurricanes netminders don't offer youth and are unlikely to do as well as other options in terms of your categories

If I had to rank the seven when considering both doing well in categories now and the chance of a young netminder emerging as a true #1 soon, I'd go with Nashville first, followed by Vancouver, the Islanders, Arizona, Columbus, New Jersey, and finally Carolina. Good luck!

Question #4 (from Tim)

I'm in a ten-team, keep 14 salary cap (actual yearly salary, not AAV) points-only league, with the salary cap being equal to the league cap. Active line-ups consist of 11F, 4D, 1G, plus 6 Bench, so we draft eight players each season to go along with our 14 keepers. I have a question about what to do about my defense, which currently consists of Tyson Barrie ($3.75M), John Carlson ($8.0M), Jeff Petry ($4.0M) and Keith Yandle ($5.75M).

I would like to go younger in terms of the defensemen I draft. Among those who are available to pick are Adam Boqvist, Bowen Byram, Matt Grzelcyk, Moritz Seider, Noah Dobson, Erik Brannstrom, Jake Bean, Jusso Valimaki, Cal Foote, Evan Bouchard, and Dante Fabbro.

Who do you think will be the most impactful players long term? What about guys who might be able to have an impact this season or next in order to let me perhaps replace Barrie, who'll likely sign for a lot more after 2020-21, and Yandle, who's clearly starting to decline?

Kudos for thinking ahead, and for realizing Yandle is on a downswing, as to the naked eye, his stats for 2019-20 seem decent. It's only until you realize that 32 of his 45 points came in his first 42 games, with only 13 in his last 27 contests. Also, his ice time dropped by 1:47 from Q1 to Q4. Yes, he still was able to keep his coveted PP time; but he's likely going to be a glorified PP specialist going forward, and that's if Aaron Ekblad doesn't force the team to insert him into that role.

And you're correct that Barrie's next deal should be for amply more. As such it is best to be prepared to move on from him if you can no longer afford his services come 2021-22.

Who, then, are the answers? Six just so happen to be the top six ranked keeper league defensemen according to DobberHockey, namely Boqvist, Dobson, Brannstrom, Bouchard, Valimaki, and Byram. Seider is next at 18, then Bean at 29, and Foote at 41. Grzelcyk is too old to qualify, and I'm guessing so too is Fabbro, after he played a full 2019-20 with Nashville. So clearly it's an impressive crop of players who will be available to draft.

A guy I'm liking more and more by the day is Valimaki, who played superb overseas and, as importantly, is poised to be able to seize the PP1 spot from an ageing Mark Giordano by 2021-22. Moreover, any or all of Boqvist, Grzelcyk, or Dobson could be running PP1 for their teams this season. As such, I'd put those three as my top options for the here and now, with Boqvist and Dobson – plus Valimaki – also qualifying as guys with huge long term upside.

Byram is in a bad spot in Colorado, with Cale Makar being the golden boy and Samuel Girard and Devon Toews also on the scene. As noted above, what I think happens is Girard or Byram will get moved either this season or next as Colorado is pushing for a Stanley Cup. Once either of those things occurs, Byram could be impactful, whether as a one-two punch with Makar or on a new team.

I'm not as high on Bouchard as others, since I think he'll be roadblocked this season by Barrie and then in 2020-21 by a returning Oscar Klefbom, who, if you look closely, had a very good 2019-20, especially when it came to the PP, where he saw the highest percentage of his team's man-advantage minutes. Brannstrom falls into the same category, although in his case it's Thomas Chabot that's the barrier. It's still possible that Bouchard and/or Brannstrom play well enough to force their team's hand; but I' can't put either of them in the same class as Boqvist, Dobson, Valimaki or Byram.

I'm not a huge fan of Seider and Foote, both of whom I think will be better suited for leagues that aren't points only, nor of Bean, who if he was going to pan out probably would've shown more by now. Fabbro also isn't a guy with big upside given the stacked Nashville blueline.

So, guys, I like best for the near term are Grzelcyk, Boqvist and Dobson. The latter two I also like for the long term, plus Valimaki and Byram. Good luck!

Question #5 (from Chander)

I'm in a 12 team keeper that has a five-year cycle, after which things completely reset. The coming season will represent year four. It's a H2H keep eight with 24 man rosters and scoring categories of G, A, P, +/-, PP, SHP, Shots, GWG, Hits, Blocks; Wins, Saves, GAA, SV%, SO. We start 3C, 3LW, 3RW, 4D, 2UTIL, 1G, plus have 8 bench spots.

I'm debating a trade where I'd give up Igor Shesterkin, Seth Jones, Anze Kopitar and a 5th round pick in exchange for John Carlson and a 2nd round pick. If I made the deal, my keepers would be Nathan MacKinnon, Patrick Kane, Alex Ovechkin, Artemi Panarin, Gabriel Landeskog, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Brady Tkachuk, and Carlson.

I am confident I can find serviceable goalies in my league's draft this year, which is why I’m leaning towards this trade. Additionally, I have Darcy Kuemper on my roster.

Do I do this trade? If not, who would you keep?

The Short answer is yes; I do this trade. The reason is your already strong keeper base plus the reset coming before 2022-23. Moreover, Jones and Kopitar are not going to be keeper material, so trading them is essentially meaningless. Thus the trade really is Shesterkin and a 5th rounder for Carlson and a 2nd rounder.

With all due respect to Shesterkin and the high hopes that accompany him going into this season, he's still a guy who's played all of 12 NHL games. Who's to say how he'll do this season, especially amid what will be extraordinary circumstances yet still with all the pressure and spotlight of being the #1 netminder in a hockey hotbed like New York City. As great as he might be, and even though Antii Raanta is lurking in Arizona, I'm not convinced Shesterkin will provide that much more value than Kuemper over the next two seasons.

As for Carlson, yes he likely has peaked and probably will regress slightly in 2020-21; and other core pieces on Washington, namely Alex Ovechkin, Nicklas Backstrom and T.J. Oshie, are also aging. But the key is you're not looking long term – only for this season and next. With the exception of Oshie, I don't see the stats of any of these four cratering before your next reset, plus Jakub Vrana should improve to offset the decline of Oshie and there's Evgeni Kuznetsov in his prime. With all due respect to upstarts Cale Makar and Quinn Hughes, Carlson still figures to have the best fantasy deployment of any d-man for the next two seasons.

Your core also is perfectly aligned to win now, as you have great scorers, plus Landy and Tkachuk, who should do well plus stuff your stats. Yes, not having a goalie keeper will be a bit scary in a league where a third of the categories are goalie-related. But only one goalie starts, making it so other teams will keep one at most, leaving plenty for you to draft or pick up. If you get concerned, then you can always swap in Kuemper for Landy as a keeper, as I think you're deep enough in terms of skaters even without Landy.

Getting back to the trade that's on the table; I'd do this deal even if the draft picks were reversed, yet as it stands I think you're getting the best player for your league plus upgrading your draft picks. I suspect that the other GM is drinking a little too much of the Shesterkin Kool-Aid, and you'd be wise to use that to your advantage. Good luck!

Question #6 (from Joey)

I’m in an eight team, one year H2H league with category-based matchups. Categories are G, A, P, +\-, PPP, and SOG for skaters, and each team has a 25 player roster.

I have the first pick for 2020-21 and can’t decide between Connor McDavid and Nathan Mackinnon. Part of me thinks that despite what McDavid has accomplished, MacKinnon might be the "safer" pick, as he has a very high floor plus still seems to be getting better, not to mention holding a big edge in SOG and likely +/- as well. But it’s very tough to pass on McDavid, especially with Edmonton having, on paper, improved this offseason. McDavid also had a significant PPPts advantage last year and it is possible he too is still improving.

Who should I pick?

For starters, I'm assuming that forward positions don't matter, as if they did Leon Draisaitl would need to be in the conversation. Heck – Draisaitl still might be worth considering. After all, he was the NHL scoring leader for 2019-20. But I'll just focus on the two you asked about.

One gauge of who to select is their Yahoo draft rankings, which have McDavid ahead of MacKinnon (and Draisaitl behind both of them). But many of those are casual leagues where McDavid being more of a household name is a factor. So certainly we need to dig deeper.

Probably the biggest key is determining whether what we saw from MacKinnon in the playoffs was what we should expect from him going forward, or instead, just him being scorching hot for a 15 game stretch. His shooting percentage in the playoffs was not inflated; his PPPts were elevated though, albeit likely due to him getting 5:13 per game with the man advantage, a 25% jump as compared to his regular-season average per game. His IPPs actually were down, although his 5×5 team shooting percentage was 13.3%, up from a career regular-season best of 10.7 and 10.8 in his 111 and 107 point pace seasons. MacKinnon also has had prior stretches as hot as his 25 points in 15 games (136 point pace) that he posted during the playoffs, namely 31 points in 19 games (134 point pace) in 2019-20 and an identical 15 points in 25 games stretch in 2017-18.

So do I think MacKinnon is a 135 point player? No chance. Could he rise to a 120 point pace? Possibly, although most elite centers who came into the league set what ultimately turned out to be their career-best scoring pace by age 25, which is how old MacKinnon is. Also, Colorado is already a very potent offensive team, with 3.37 goals per game last season, a rate that is higher than the highest output (3.14) by Edmonton in the McDavid era. And MacKinnon doesn't have room to shoot more, get a higher percentage of PP Time, or get more ice time overall. All things considered, we need to figure MacKinnon for a player who, if everything goes right, should score at a full-season pace of 105-115 points.

As for McDavid, not only is he two years younger than MacKinnon, but his points rate has gone up every single season he's been in the league thus far. And he still has room to shoot more, as 3.37 SOG per game is high, but not insurmountable. We also know McDavid can still see more ice time, as he received almost a full minute less in 2018-19 as compared to 2019-20. Moreover, even as McDavid's SOG rate climbed, his shooting percentage was right at his career average. On top of all that, despite setting a career-high in scoring rate, McDavid's IPP was 78.2%, lower than the 81.7% and 90% it was in the prior two seasons.

McDavid also posted his career-high in points pace last season despite not seeing more even-strength time with Leon Draisaitl as compared to 2018-19. In fact, McDavid's scoring rate in Q3 and Q4 of the 2019-20 campaign was 120 points despite his most frequent linemates in those quarters being the likes of Zack Kassian, Josh Archibald, Tyler Ennis and Andreas Athanasiou. This gets me to the next key point – on paper Edmonton should be a much better offensive team, having added Kyle Turris, Jesse Puljujarvi and Tyson Barrie while only losing the services of Oscar Klefbom. All things considered, I believe parts are in place for McDavid to hit yet another career-high, probably in the 130-135 scoring rate range, with more SOG and an improved +/- to go along with the higher point total.

The last factor, since this is a one-year league, is whether either one will enjoy an advantage over the other by virtue of the squads his teams will play during the upcoming unusual season. Edmonton would play the other Canadian teams, which finished 10th, 16th, 19th, 21st, 26th and 30th in Goals Against per game last season, whereas the Avs would be in the "West" division against teams whose Goals Against per game last season was 3rd, 5th, 13th, 14th, 24th, 25th and 27th. Advantage McDavid.

So although the temptation is to take MacKinnon due to his playoffs, stellar SOG and likely advantage in +/-, I believe that the "right" pick in a one-year league for 2020-21 and with your categories is McDavid. Good luck!

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One quick note – you'll see I had somewhat inconsistent views about certain players in one question versus another. The reason is due to different circumstances, and underscores that what makes sense in one league might not necessarily make sense in all leagues.

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For those reading this now, it's never too early to start providing me with mailbag questions, which you can do in one of two ways: (1) by emailing them to [email protected] with the words "Roos Mailbag" as the subject line, or (2) by sending them to me via a private message on the DobberHockey Forums, where my username is "rizzeedizzee".

When sending me your questions, remember to provide as much detail about your league/situation as possible. Examples of things I need to know include what type of league you're in (i.e., limited keeper, dynasty, or one-year; roto vs H2H; auction – if so, what the budget is – or non-auction), how many teams are in the league, does the salary cap matter, how many players are rostered (and of those, how many start at each position as well as how many bench and/or IR spots there are), what categories are scored and how are they weighted, plus other details if pertinent. If your question involves whether to pick up or drop a player, give me a list of top free agents available and let me know if the number of pick-ups is limited or if there is a priority system for pick-ups. If you're thinking of making a trade, it would be good to know not only the roster of the other team you might trade with but also where you stand in your categories. If your question involves keepers, in addition to giving me the options for who to keep, let me know if offseason trading is allowed and to what extent it is a viable option given your league. In sum, the key is to tell me enough for me to give you a truly proper answer, and for readers of this column to benefit from the answer/advice I provide. When in doubt, it's best to err on the side of inclusion since I can always omit or disregard things that don't matter.