Weekly Western Leaders (to January 24^th, 2021)

Goals – 5 – Mikko Rantanen – Colorado, Bo Horvat – Vancouver

Assists – 9 – Anze Kopitar – Los Angeles

Points – 10 – Anze Kopitar – Los Angeles, Connor McDavid – Edmonton

PPP – 6 – Joe Pavelski – Dallas (only two games)

Shots on Goal – 33 – Connor McDavid – Edmonton

Shooting % (min 5 SOG) – 50.0 – Gabriel Vilardi – Los Angeles, Joe Pavelski – Dallas

PIM – 23 – Tyler Myers – Vancouver

Best plus/minus – plus 7 – Shea Theodore – Vegas, Nikolaj Ehlers – Winnipeg, Darnell Nurse – Edmonton, Ethan Bear – Edmonton

Worst plus/minus – minus 8 – Brandon Saad – Colorado, Nazem Kadri – Colorado, Erik Karlsson – San Jose

Hits – 29 – Tyler Motte – Vancouver

Blocked shots – 25 – Adam Larsson – Edmonton

FOW – 92 – Bo Horvat – Vancouver

FOL – 59 – Bo Horvat – Vancouver

FO% (min 50 FO) – 65.4 – Pierre-Edouard Bellemare – Colorado

Giveaways – 9 – Calvin De Haan – Chicago

Takeaways – 8 – Mark Scheifele – Winnipeg

Highest xGAR – 4.1 – Shea Theodore – Vegas

Lowest xGAR  – minus 2.2 – Mattias Janmark – Chicago

Highest CF% (min 4 GP) – 68.0 – Matthew Tkachuk – Calgary

Lowest CF% (min 4 GP) – 31.2 – Alex Chiasson – Edmonton

Highest PDO (min 4 GP) – 115.8 – Nikolaj Ehlers – Winnipeg

Lowest PDO (min 4 GP) – 79.0 – Brandon Saad – Colorado

Goalie wins – 3 – too many to list

Save percentage (min 4 starts) – 93.8 – John Gibson – Anaheim

Quality starts – 4 – Mikko Koskinen – Edmonton

Quality start % (min 4 starts) – 60.0 – John Gibson – Anaheim, Darcy Kuemper – Arizona, Philipp Grubauer – Colorado, Jordan Binnington – St. Louis

Shutouts – 1 – Marc-Andre Fleury – Vegas, Philipp Grubauer – Colorado

This week I'm going to focus on a stat developed by Evolving Hockey (www.evolving-hockey.com) and that is expected goals for above replacement (xGAR). The stat should be used as a measurement for how each player has played to this point taking into account offensive play at even strength and power play, as well as defensive play away from the puck.

The reason this particular stat jumped out at me is that I've been dabbling in trying to develop some player game ratings (out of 10 with 6.5 being about replacement level) that combine game performance and an eye-test component to give an overall game rating. I only have time to do this for the Vancouver Canucks and the results were fairly similar to the xGAR that Evolving Wild has.

Here are my ratings after seven games compared to xGAR for the Canucks (over 40 minutes TOI):

The only players that xGAR had significantly lower were Quinn Hughes, J.T. Miller, Travis Hamonic and Elias Pettersson. With Hughes, Miller and Pettersson there are going to be positive things they do in a game that isn't measured, while Hamonic is more a case of my rating being too high. But at least, I know I'm on the right path.

 I'm going to focus on the top and bottom two or three players on each team in the West and see how these compare to actual production (min TOI 40 min).

Anaheim

According to xGAR the top player on the Ducks is Hampus Lindholm at 2.0, followed by Nicolas Deslauriers (1.8), Max Comtois (1.3) and Danton Heinen (1.1). The fine play from Lindholm hasn't translated into points as he has two goals in the six games he has played while Comtois has an impressive three goals in his six games. Heinen only has one assist to his credit so far and has probably been unlucky to this point while Deslauriers has three points in six games and has managed 12 shots on goal.

The bottom two are Sam Steel and Rickard Rakell at -0.8 xGAR. Steel has two assists in six games but has only managed five shots while Rakell has one goal and one assist in six games and has 19 shots on goal.

Arizona

Derrick Brassard and Nick Schmaltz at 1.3 and Jakob Chychrun at 1.2 are the three top players on the Coyotes while Jason Demers (-2.0) and Niklas Hjalmarsson (-0.9) are the bottom two. Chychrun (five points) has probably been the best Coyote overall so far, while Brassard and Schmaltz have had a productive start as well with four and five points each. Demers and Hjalmarsson both appear to be struggling so far and are pointless in six games. Clayton Keller and Conor Garland are both playing well with xGAR of 1.1 which has translated to Garland leading the team in points with six.

Calgary

Matthew Tkachuk at 1.7 is the best Flame so far while Elias Lindholm and Rasmus Andersson are the bottom two at -0.2 and -0.1 respectively which is not significant at all and speaks to how well the Flames have played. Tkachuk's play hasn't translated to him leading the team in points (he has three in four games), but it shows his overall value when he turns in games like Sunday with a goal, nine shots and five hits. Lindholm and Andersson have been just fine as Lindholm has five points and Andersson has four.

Chicago

Calvin De Haan at 2.0, Patrick Kane 1.6, Dominik Kubalik at 1.2 and Alex Debrincat at 1.1 lead the Blackhawks while Mattias Janmark at -2.2, Duncan Keith -1.5 and Ryan Carpenter at -1.1 are at the bottom. I'm surprised to see De Haan at the top because he has only one goal and two points and is a minus-three but looks to have provided solid play away from the puck, while as normal Kane leads the team with seven points. Kubalik had a slow start but now has four points while Debrincat appears to have his game back with six points in six games.

Janmark bounced back on Sunday with a goal and an assist while Duncan Keith has five assists in six games, Sunday's four giveaways might be more indicative of his play so far this year. Ryan Carpenter has yet to get a point this season but had three shots and three hits on Sunday which is a step in the right direction.

Colorado

Cale Makar 2.4, Nathan MacKinnon at 2.1 and Gabriel Landeskog at 1.8. Ryan Graves at -1.4 and Matt Calvert at -1.1 are the bottoms on the Avalanche. Makar appears to have continued where he left off from last season and has five assists in his first six games while playing very well defensively. MacKinnon has eight points and will be at the top of the points list as well as the xGAR list on this team. Landeskog has three goals and five points along with 22 SOG and 16 hits.

At the other extreme Ryan Graves was a healthy scratch on Sunday and the league leader in plus-minus last year is minus five after five games this year. To be fair to Graves, he is no longer with Makar. Matt Calvert is struggling with only one point this season and will need to battle to keep his spot in the lineup.

Dallas

Dallas has only played two games so far so we can't look at much of anything. I noticed that Joe Pavelski leads the West with six power-play points in only two games. The bubble play from Pavelski continues.

Edmonton

Connor McDavid at 3.1 is no surprise but Adam Larsson and Slater Koekkoek at 1.4 are while Kailer Yamamoto is at 1.3 and Leon Draisaitl is at 1.0. At the other end, Kyle Turris is -1.1 while Dominik Kahun is -0.8. McDavid has 10 points in seven games along with 33 SOG which is expected but seeing Larsson and Koekkoek this high with only one point from each player puts value in the shot blocks from Larsson and to be honest, I'm not sure with Koekkoek. Yamamoto has continued his point per game pace that I didn't think he would and Draisaitl should always be this high.

Kyle Turris has been a disappointment for the Oilers but he did pick up his first goal on Sunday, so perhaps he will turn things around a little. I thought Kahun was a little unlucky earlier in the season when he was playing with Draisaitl, but we are now seven games in and he only has one assist to show for his play.

Los Angeles

Olli Maatta at 1.5, Adrian Kempe at 1.4 and Matt Roy at 1.3 are the three highest while Sean Walker is at -1.1 along with Blake Lizotte at -0.6. The Kings had an impressive 6-3 win over St. Louis on Sunday and Maatta didn't play. If it was a healthy scratch it would be a little surprising as it seems he has been playing just fine. Kempe had two assists on Sunday and now has three goals and five points. Could this be his breakout year? Matt Roy has had a very solid start to the season but four giveaways like he had on Sunday won't help this continue.

Walker continues to struggle this season, so it would be curious why Maatta sat over him. Lizotte has two goals so far and this might be the only thing keeping him in the lineup right now.

Minnesota

Joel Eriksson Ek is 2.8 and Jared Spurgeon is 0.9 while at the bottom are Zach Parise and Nick Bonino at -0.5. I would have assumed that Kirill Kaprizov would be near the top of this list but Eriksson Ek is head and shoulders the best Wild so far this year according to xGAR. Eriksson Ek has three goals and five points in his first six games and might be primed for a breakout year. Spurgeon has struggled for points with only one assist to show so far, but he has been decent so far so the points should come.

Bonino has had a disappointing start to his Wild career and it continued on Sunday against San Jose where he was minus three. The good news is that he had four SOG, one hit and four blocks, which is what he needs to do to be successful. Parise had a goal and an assist on Sunday with five SOG, so he might be turning the corner on his slow start.

Nashville

Filip Forsberg is at 3.8, Viktor Arvidsson is at 1.3 and Luke Kunin and Ryan Ellis are at 1.2. At the bottom for the Predators are Erik Haula at -1.7 and Ryan Johansen and Matt Benning at -0.7. Forsberg has four goals in the first five games and has the second-highest GVA in the West so far which is a very good sign for him. Arvidsson leads the team with five points and added two more assists on Sunday to continue his fine start. Kunin has two goals but might be slowing down a little as he only has nine SOG in five games. With only one assist so far, Ryan Ellis appears to be having a slow start, but to be fair the entire defence from Nashville has yet to score a goal.

Erik Haula has yet to generate much of anything offensively and for a defensive liability that is never a good thing. Johansen has had a slow start to the year with only two assists in the first five games but he should get better. Matt Benning was a healthy scratch on Sunday, which might happen more often unless he elevates his play.

San Jose

Mario Ferraro is currently the best on the Sharks at 2.0 followed by Kevin Labanc at 1.4 and Matt Nieto and Timo Meier at 1.1. The bottom consists of Marcus Sorenson and Tomas Hertl at -0.6. Ferraro has had an excellent start to the season and now has three assists in six games while providing very solid defence. He has been paired with Brent Burns and is averaging well over 20 minutes per game and he is seeing some power play time. Pick him up if he is available in a keeper league. Labanc has three points after six games but has played well so we should hope for a better year than last if he maintains. Nieto has had a good start to the season with three points and had another goal on Sunday. Meier is a multi-category player that will get you shots and hits. He only has the one goal on 20 shots so far but they will begin to go in sooner than later.

At the other end of the xGAR list, Marcus Sorenson will need to improve to keep his spot in the lineup. I'm a little surprised to see Hertl near the bottom as leads the team in scoring with seven points, but he is minus six and has two hits and 10 shots in six games, so his production will dry up if he doesn't improve.

St. Louis

Justin Faulk at 2.7 leads the Blues followed by Jordan Kyrou at 2.4 and David Perron at 1.7. The bottom consists of Colton Parayko at -1.0 and Ryan O'Reilly at -0.9. Faulk has elevated his game with the departure of Alex Pietrangelo as he leads the team in hits and plus-minus and has chipped in with two goals. Even in a losing cause, he had seven hits, three blocks and one takeaway in the Blues 6-3 loss to the Kings on Sunday. Another revelation is Jordan Kyrou who leads the team with six points and has forced himself into the top six and onto the first unit of the powerplay. David Perron is not a surprise to see near the top of this list and he has had a relatively good start with four points.

Colton Parayko has had a shaky start to this season and might be feeling the pressure without Pietrangelo. He had five giveaways on Sunday, which under any stat metric is not a good thing. O'Reilly is a shock to see near the bottom, but he won't be there long. He had a goal on Sunday with four SOG and now has four points.

Vancouver

Bo Horvat has been playing very well and is at 3.6 while Tyler Motte is at 2.4. There is a bit of a gap to the next group at Brock Boeser at 0.9 and Nate Schmidt and Nils Hoglander at 0.8. The bottom has Adam Gaudette at -1.2 with Travis Hamonic and Tyler Myers at -1.1. Elias Pettersson has not been good at -0.9. Horvat has been the best Canuck by far and leads the NHL with five goals (three being on the PP). I think Horvat has found another gear and if he can sustain it should be a point per game player this year. Tyler Motte has been the heart and soul of this team early on and leads the West in hits and has chipped in with two goals on 14 SOG. Boeser has four goals on 16 SOG and appears to have his shot back, but still struggles at times to generate space for himself and teammates at even strength. Schmidt has come as advertised and played well enough to be one of the better Canuck defenders after Quinn Hughes. I thought Hoglander had hit the wall a little in game three of his early career, but he seems to have found his game again and is generating chances which are rare for this team so far at even strength.

Adam Gaudette has struggled since playing 10 games in the bubble with no points. He has one goal this year, but his deficiencies away from the puck make his lack of production glaring. He needs to generate offence or he won't be in the NHL to stay (he was a healthy scratch on Saturday). I thought Hamonic had been decent for the Canucks after the initial rust of his first two games in ten months wore off. He did struggle in his last full game and had some misreads and turnovers but I'm not sure he belongs with Myers. Tyler Myers is an enigma, because of his size, salary and his play. He has had his best offensive start to his career with Vancouver with four points in seven games, but he hasn't been good. Evolving Wild has his -1.1 xGAR broken down as even for xOff, -0.7 for xDef and -0.4 for xPen, which I can't argue with at all. His defensive coverage and wall work are awful for a player that is of any size. This is only year two of a five-year contract. Yikes.

Vegas

Shea Theodore is at 4.1 which is the highest in the Western Conference and the next two Vegas players are Max Pacioretty at 1.9 and Mark Stone at 1.4. The bottom has Alex Tuch at -0.7 and Reilly Smith at -0.5. If there were any doubts about Theodore's production and play with the addition of Pietrangelo I think they have been put to rest. Theodore has three goals and six points in the first six games and is playing the best hockey of his career. Pacioretty has three goals in six games along with 24 SOG and is continuing his success in Vegas. I thought Mark Stone would be higher, as he does lead the team with eight points while providing great defensive play.

Tuch has had a good statistical start to the season with five points in six games but he might not be able to sustain this pace. Reilly Smith has had an ok start to the season with three points in six games but has struggled away from the puck so far.

Winnipeg

Mark Scheifele leads the Jets at 2.6 followed by Paul Stastny at 1.7, Kyle Connor at 1.1 and Nik Ehlers and Adam Lowry at 1.0. The bottom has Logan Stanley, Matthieu Perreault and Nathan Beaulieu at -0.3 which isn't that bad. Scheifele has had a great start to the season with nine points in six games with 20 SOG. Stastny has been good so far for the Jets with four points and a plus-six after six games but it will be interesting if the 35-year old can sustain it. Connor leads the team with nine points but his play away from the puck if better would have him higher on this list. Ehlers has had a very good start to the season with four goals and seven points and he might be in line for a career year. Adam Lowry has had three goals to begin the year and leads the team with 15 hits. He might be a good option in multi-category leagues going forward. None of the Jets have been that bad but Perreault might struggle to stay in this lineup if one of the taxi-squad members can stick. 

Like any advanced stat, xGAR is fairly open to interpretation and for such a small sample size to date for the 2021 season, there will be players turning it around on both ends of the spectrum pretty quickly. This is just meant to be a snapshot of how players have performed so far this year and give a little more insight than you'd otherwise have.

Thanks for reading and if you have any comments or suggestions, please let me know below and/or follow me on Twitter @gampbler15.