Fantasy Take: Tatar Signs Deal with the Devils

Michael Clifford

2021-08-05

One of the few dominoes left in free agency was the final destination of former Montreal forward Tomas Tatar. He was in a very weird spot where he was healthy scratched for most of the playoffs in favour of players like Paul Byron (who just had major hip surgery), Jake Evans (who could play centre), and Artturi Lehkonen. Despite Jonathan Drouin being out for the postseason, Tatar couldn't find his way into the lineup. It was weird.

What he would be worth in the market, then, was very much up for debate. We got our answer:

This makes a decent offseason for the Devils. First, the big fish in Dougie Hamilton. They also shored up the blue line by adding Ryan Graves and gave themselves some help in net with Jonathan Bernier. They may not score a ton, but the team is much better defensively than it was four months ago.

What are the Devils getting? Let's take a look.

How bad was Tatar's 2021 season? Well… it wasn't bad. It was good, which makes the healthy scratching in the playoffs all the more strange. Here are some facts:

  • Out of 42 line combinations with 200 minutes at even strength, Tatar-Danault-Gallagher led the league in expected goal share. In actual goal share? They also led the league. They were flat-out the best even-strength line in hockey this year. That isn’t up for debate.
  • By points per 60 minutes, he was third among Montreal forwards at 5-on-5 (2.03). League-wide, that was higher than wingers like T.J. Oshie, Blake Wheeler, and Kevin Fiala.
  • By Evolving Hockey's impacts, he was inside the 80th percentile of forwards in the league defensively.
  • Tatar's on-ice expected goals against was tied for 10th-lowest in the league.

By almost every conceivable measure, Tatar was great during the regular season. That is what made his benching in the playoffs so weird. But the Habs kept winning, so he stayed in the press box, and here we are.

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If the Devils get Tatar in the form he's been basically his entire career, the Devils got a second-line winger at worst, and perhaps a genuine top-line winger. Earlier today in my Ramblings, I talked about how Jack Hughes may be lacking true scoring options. Not that Tatar is David Pastrnak or Auston Matthews, but he's in the top third of the league in goals rate over the last three years. For comparison, a name just above him is Brock Boeser and a name just below him is T.J. Oshie. What if the Devils had just acquired Oshie? That is about the level of production we can expect at 5-on-5.

The issue is the power play. He didn't show a lot in Montreal, but basically no one showed much in Montreal. If Tatar can be a genuine power-play threat, that changes the outlook not only for him, but for Hughes, Hamilton, and so on. It is a cascading effect. And Tatar has had some decent PP goal seasons: nine in 2014-15, nine again in 2017-18, and eight two seasons ago in 68 games. He has double-digit PP goal potential if he's on the top unit.

Tatar is an exciting signing. He isn't franchise-changing, but he gives the Devils a guy who can play top-line minutes effectively, and they don't have many wingers like that. We could see him back in the 17-18 minute range, and that puts 25 goals and 60 points both within reach for him. Comfortably, we should expect 20 goals and 50 points. He is a nice bridge to their future.

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