Ramblings: Fantasy Season Planning; Tolvanen’s New Contract (Sept 1)

Alexander MacLean

2021-09-01

Happy September, it’s the last month this year without NHL hockey on!

I'm going to continue my train of thought on how I prepare for the fantasy season each year. Last week I went over my mock draft practices, and the week before I dove into the beginning of my offseason planning, which starts with some player evaluations. This week I'm looking a little more towards the research and planning of the season.

In a keeper or dynasty league, even before entering the draft you should have an idea of where you stand in the pecking order of your league. Are you one of the two or three real wire-to-wire title threats? Are you a sure-fire playoff team that is going to try to load up and pull an upset? Are you a bubble team that will take things as they come for the first couple of weeks and adjust from there? Or are you maybe out of contention this year, and looking to load up on some buy-low opportunities like injured assets and future stars that just aren't ready this year? Knowing where you are and what direction you are taking is key to managing your expectations, keeping your moves in check, and planning your strategy.

For example, in a partial keeper, if you're a playoff team or a bubble team, and you're hoping to pull a bit of a Cinderella run (without hurting your chances in future years too much) then you might make some big risk/reward swings in the draft, and give yourself some real opportunities in more volatile categories or positions (*cough* goalies *cough*).

The other thing that you can do to get a leg up on the competition, is be more well-informed, more well researched, and have a more optimized roster. I have won leagues with rosters that did not deserve to win solely because I planned an extra 5-10 man-games through the H2H fantasy playoffs over my competition. To be able to do that, you really need to be sure you will be a playoff team, and from there you can slowly turn over the pieces that don't play the most in your H2H weeks this year, and acquire players that do. Now, I will preface that this strategy is tougher in a pandemic world where the schedule is more fluid; add onto that an Olympic year, and it's not something you want to be banking on.

That being said, it's still something to have in the back of your mind, and is definitely worth consideration as the trade deadline looms. Usually I sketch out the schedule and the playoff weeks myself, but with a newborn at home I just don't have the time right now. Luckily, Forum member 65Jeff has you covered with a Google Doc outlining the season schedule. With it, and knowing that most leagues have their playoffs during week 21-23 of the season, we can see that St Louis and the Buffalo are the only two teams with 12 games during that stretch. On the flip side, Chicago, Colorado, Montreal, New Jersey, Vancouver, Vegas, and Washington all only play nine times (the Habs and Hawks also only play twice in week 22 – that's a killer). What we do with that info, is at some point during the season we look to flip Nicklas Backstrom for David Perron, or Quinn Hughes for Rasmus Dahlin, and end up with a similar (or better) asset that also plays more games when it matters.

For those in leagues with weekly adds, when you're chasing games played, this is also hugely useful to look at. Volume can win you more weeks than just about anything else.

The next awesome tool that you need to be checking out is also put together by a Forum member, rjfischer83. He puts together the "same night tool" which is crucial to have when drafting so you can avoid the worst of the conflicts between team schedules. This is especially key with goaltenders and their limited active roster slots. In both of my dynasty leagues, there is only one active goalie slot, but with rostering two or three goalies, you want to make sure they play on the same night as little as possible. The more starts you have on your bench, the less value your players have on the whole. Using this tool allows you to see the range of which teams can offer players that best fit your available slots. Great when you're looking at a trade, or even mid-draft if you have time.

Next up is to do some fine-tuning research, and for that I pull up the Dobber Guide for another read through. This time checking in on schedule anomalies, the projected standings, and general info I may have missed last time. I also go through the rosters with a bit more of a fine-toothed comb, trying to find those juicy roster holes and sorting out who is going to fill them.

Last season I was able to nab Chandler Stephenson in a few leagues, and that payed off in spades. This year Charlie Coyle, Dimitri Jaskin, Kirby Dach, Marco Rossi, Kaapo Kakko, Nick Ritchie, Alexandre Carrier, Conor Timmins and one of Jonathan Dahlen or John Leonard could be filling spots higher in the lineup than most are really giving them credit for. The Seattle Kraken are also an opportunity to try and bet on their top-line guys, but with the amount of options they have, it's probably a bit of a fool's errand.

From there, circle back, do a few more mock drafts to try and let all of that info sink in. Don't rush decisions, buy-low/sell-high, keep up with it all season long, and have fun!  

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That new contract that Eeli Tolvanen signed on Monday jumps him into the top-50 in my salary cap keeper league rankings. Don't sleep on him, especially with Nashville looking to turn over a new leaf, and possibly bringing a bit more offence this year.

Tolvanen was projected at an AAV of $2.5M, and signed for three years at only $1.45M per season. He hits, he shoots, he racks up power play points, and there is now room for him in the top-six. He's still another season away from his breakout threshold, but all of the ingredients are there for a tasty season on route to his real breakout.

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Casey Cizikas is rumoured to have signed an extension with the Islanders. It seems like him, Zach Parise, and Kyle Palmieri all have deals in place but GM Lou Lamoriello is keeping his cards close to his chest at the moment.

Connor Murphy also signed a contract extension yesterday. The $4.4 million price tag may seem like a lot to those outside of Chicago, but fans of the Blackhawks know how vital he has been to their team over the last few years, to the point that this feels like a bargain. He’s a great guy to use in fantasy to pad those peripheral stats, but not much more. At least his plus-minus might be a little better this year.

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Last night was the latest epic battle between Canada and the USA at the Women's World Championships, and of course it went to overtime. There was speed, skill, and yes even physicality on display. So much for no body-checking!

It turned into another classic, this one in Canada’s favour.

This was a great tune-up for the Olympics in five(!) months, and I’m really excited to see both the Men’s and the Women’s teams showcased there.

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Feel free to either drop a comment, or find me on Twitter @alexdmaclean if you have any fantasy hockey questions.

Stay safe! 

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Starting Goalies

Top Skater Views

  Players Team
JACKSON LACOMBE ANA
LANE HUTSON MTL
PATRIK LAINE MTL
SHANE PINTO OTT
JONATHAN HUBERDEAU CGY

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  Players Team
MACKENZIE BLACKWOOD COL
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DAVID RITTICH L.A
LUKAS DOSTAL ANA
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LINE COMBOS

  Frequency OTT Players
20.6 BRADY TKACHUK TIM STUTZLE CLAUDE GIROUX
15.1 SHANE PINTO RIDLY GREIG NICK COUSINS
8.3 ZACK OSTAPCHUK NOAH GREGOR ADAM GAUDETTE

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