Wild West: Early Look at UFAs in the West for 2022-23 – Part Two
Grant Campbell
2021-09-20
We will continue our look at impending UFAs in the West this week with Minnesota, Nashville, San Jose, Seattle, St. Louis, Vancouver, Vegas and Winnipeg
I've highlighted the key impending UFAs from each team in bold. I've also listed each player's best totals over the past three seasons to give us an idea of what point production they might still be capable of.
Minnesota Wild
Victor Rask (C) – 28 years old; $4 million AAV expiring contract; 54-10-13-23 is his most productive year over the past three seasons
Nick Bjugstad (C/W) – 29; $900k; 64-14-12-26 with 126 hits with Florida and Pittsburgh
Kyle Rau (W) – 28; $750k; career 56-2-5-7 with 69 hits
Nico Sturm (W) – 26; $725k; career 58-11-8-19 and last year 50-11-6-17
Alex Goligoski (D) – 36; $5 million; 70-4-28-32 with 91 hits and 134 blocked shots with Arizona
Jordie Benn (D) – 34; $900k; 81-5-17-22 with 124 hits and 128 blocked shots with Montreal
Jon Merrill (D) – 29; $850k; 57-3-12-15 with 71 hits and 72 blocked shots with Vegas
Kevin Czuczman (D) – 30; $750k; career 15-0-2-2; 65-4-17-21 in the AHL
Jon Lizotte (D) – 26; $750k; no career games; 59-0-17-17 in the AHL
Andrew Hammond (G) – 33; $750k; hasn't played in the NHL since 2017-18; career 57 GP 27 W 2.31 GAA 92.3 save percentage and 12.9 GSAA. His 2014-15 is still one of the most impressive stat lines out there.
I could see the Wild bringing back Bjugstad for $1.5 million AAV or less over two or three years if he has an effective season in 2021-22. Nico Sturm is entering his sophomore year at 26-years of age and had moments last season so if he holds steady or progresses he should be rewarded with a second contract around $1 to 1.5 million AAV. Anything more than that will make the Wild think twice about re-signing a 4th line center with Marco Rossi and Matthew Boldy entering the picture.
Calen Addison will be on the scene this year or next, so I think the Goligoski signing was a mentorship move and a safety valve in case Addison needs more time. It would only make sense for one of Goligoski, Benn and Merrill to be brought back and it would have to be an inexpensive contract.
Nashville Predators
Filip Forsberg (W) – 27; $6 million; 64-28-22-50 with 100 hits
Rocco Grimaldi (W) – 28; $2 million; 66-10-21-31
Nick Cousins (W/C) – 28; $1.5 million; 81-7-20-27 with 115 hits in Arizona
Mattias Ekholm (D) – 31; $3.75 million; 80-8-36-44 with 68 hits and 107 blocked shots
Mark Borowiecki (D) – 32; $2 million; 53-7-11-18 with 199 hits and 120 blocked shots in Ottawa
Matthew Benning (D) – 27; $1 million; 70-5-12-17 with 109 hits and 59 blocked shots in Edmonton
Ben Harpur (D) – 26; $800k; 51-1-4-5 with 89 hits and 69 blocked shots in Ottawa
David Rittich (G) – 29; $1.25 million; 45 GP 27 W 2.61 GAA 91.1 save percentage and 2.75 GSAA in Calgary
Filip Forsberg is the best offensive player in Nashville and for a team starving for offense, what choice do they have but to try and bring him back unless they are heading into a rebuild? The problem is that he should command $7 or 8 million AAV on the open market much like teammate Mattias Ekholm who has been undervalued at $3.75 million over the past six seasons and won't make the same mistake.
For what Grimaldi, Cousins and Borowiecki bring for their current salaries, they would have to take a pay cut to be brought back. Benning, Harpur and Rittich are stop-gap solutions and we should see players like David Farrance, Philip Tomasino and Connor Ingram pushing through for roster spots this year or next at entry-level contracts.
San Jose Sharks
Tomas Hertl (C) – 27; $5.625 million; 77-35-39-74 with a 51.5 FO%
Andrew Cogliano (W) – 34; $1 million; 78-6-11-17 with 68 hits in Anaheim and Dallas
Alexander Barabanov (W) – 27; $1 million; 13-0-1-1 in Toronto and 9-3-4-7 with San Jose last year
Joel Kellman (C) – 27; $750k; career 38-4-5-9 with a 47.4 FO%
Jaycob Megna (D) – 28; $750k; career 43-1-4-5 with 38 hits and 59 blocked shots
With no top-line centers in the prospect pool, San Jose will have little choice but to re-sign Hertl for $6 or 7 million AAV over five or six years if they wish to remain competitive. Logan Couture is 32-years old now and even though he is signed until 2027, his better days are behind him.
Barabanov is an intriguing player that did well in his first stint with the Sharks, but it was a very small sample size, so even if he sticks as a regular he might have more value for San Jose as trade bait at the deadline.
Seattle Kraken
Calle Jarnkrok (C/W) – 29; $ 2 million; 64-15-19-34 in Nashville
Marcus Johansson (C/W) – 30; $1.5 million; 58-13-17-30 in New Jersey and Boston
Riley Sheahan (C) – 29; $850k; 82-9-10-19 with a 52.3 FO% in Pittsburgh and Buffalo
Colin Blackwell (C/W) – 28; $725k; career 80-15-17-32 with 98 hits
Mark Giordano (D) – 37; $6.75 million; 78-17-57-74 with 58 hits and 144 blocked shots in Calgary
Connor Carrick (D) – 27; $800k; 34-2-9-11 with 25 hits and 37 blocked shots in New Jersey and Dallas
Gustav Olofsson (D) – 26; $750k; career 59-0-11-11 with 36 hits and 66 blocked shots
Antoine Bibeau (G) – 27; $750k; career 4 GP 2 W 2.54 GAA 90.7 save percentage minus 0.4 GSAA
One would think that Jarnkrok and Blackwell will be re-signed or dealt at the deadline as why else would Seattle have picked them in the expansion draft? As for Johansson, Sheahan, Carrick, Olofsson and Bibeau, they were all brought in as stop-gap solutions and/or depth, but with a limited prospect pool, one or two might be brought back out of necessity.
I have my doubts about Giordano being traded before the deadline. He is being heavily marketed to the fanbase in Seattle and although it might be best for the product on the ice to get a decent prospect and a high pick for him before the deadline, the price of disappointing a new fanbase might not be worth it.
St. Louis Blues
David Perron (W) – 33; $4 million; 56-19-39-58 last season
Zach Sanford (W) – 26; $2 million; 58-16-14-30 with 109 hits
Kyle Clifford (W) – 30; $1 million; 72-11-10-21 with 115 hits in Los Angeles
Mackenzie MacEachern (W) – 27; $900k; 51-7-3-10 with 82 hits
Robert Bortuzzo (D) – 32; $1.375 million; 59-2-8-10 with 95 hits and 82 blocked shots
Ville Husso (G) – 26; $750k; rookie season last year 17 GP 9 W 3.21 GAA 89.3 save percentage minus 6.68 GSAA
Matthew Peca (C) – 28; $750k; career 78-6-14-20 with 77 hits 50.4 FO%
Tommy Cross (D) – 31; $750k; career 3-0-1-1, 2018-19 – 73-7-27-34 in AHL
Calle Rosen (D) – 27; $750k; career 19-1-4-5, 2018-19 – 54-7-39-46 in AHL
Charlie Lindgren (G) – 27; $750k; career 24 GP 10 W 3.00 GAA 90.7 save percentage minus 3.8 GSAA
How much term and money do you throw at a 33-year old Perron who led the team in scoring last year? It all rides on what the team does or doesn't do with Vladimir Tarasenko ($7.5 million cap space) and if the team is in playoff contention (which they should be). Perron will surely be looking at a four or five-year deal that pays him $5 to 6 million AAV, but the Blues are pretty tight to the cap as things stand. If Perron gets traded before the deadline it signals a significant blow to the current roster and their winning window.
The addition of Brandon Saad didn't do much to help the prospects of Sanford rebounding to his 2019-20 season totals of 30 points in 58 games, so we might expect a continuation of production like last season's 16 points in 52 games. At that point, it would become difficult to bring Sanford back north of $2 million AAV.
Ville Husso will need to make the best of his opportunity this season as he was below average in the 17 games he got into last year. Charlie Lindgren could see a few starts as well, but Joel Hofer is still a year or two away.
Clifford, MacEachern and Bortuzzo are band-aid solutions and being re-signed rely on the progress of the Blues prospects like Kostin and Perunovich. Fortunately for these three, St. Louis doesn't have a very deep prospect pool.
Vancouver Canucks
Tyler Motte (W) – 26; $1.225 million; 74-9-7-16 with 200 hits, but 58-10-7-17 with 218 hits and 65 blocked shots over the past two seasons where he has missed 68 games.
Brandon Sutter (C) – 32; $1.125 million; 44-8-9-17 and 55.5 FO% last year. Hasn't played more than 61 games in the last four years
Phillip Di Giuseppe (W) – 27; $750k; 31-1-7-8 with 78 hits playing for the NY Rangers
Justin Bailey (W) – 26; $750k; career 68-5-4-9 with 69 hits
Brad Hunt (D)- 33; $800k; 59-8-11-19 in Minnesota
Jaroslav Halak (G) – 36; $1.5 million; 40 GP 22 W 2.34 GAA 92.2 save percentage 15.38 GSAA in Boston
Nicolas Petan (C/W) – 26; $750k; career 132-5-22-27 and 46.6 FO% over six seasons
John Stevens (C) – 27; $750k; no career NHL games, 40-6-8-14 in AHL in 2019-20
Sheldon Dries (C) – 27; $750k; career 48-3-3-6 and 50.7 FO% in Colorado
Madison Bowey (D)- 26; $725k; 53-3-14-17 with 53 hits and 58 blocked shots in Detroit
Spencer Martin (G)- 26; $800k; career 3 GP 0 W 4.35 GAA 86.5 save percentage minus 4.65 GSAA
If anyone follows me on Twitter (@gampbler15) you might be aware of my love for Tyler Motte's game. I've watched every shift of each Canucks game over the past two seasons and chronicled my ratings at www.playergameratings.com
Motte comes out very well cumulatively over last season:
Unfortunately, the style that he plays is not conducive to his size and he will more than likely struggle to remain healthy while he plays this way. For Motte to play 70 games in a season, he will need to dial it down a little, but by doing so he will be a less effective player.
There will be three reasons that the Canucks don't re-sign Motte or deal him before the deadline. One, he is injured once again, two, his play has been dialled back and/or three, the Canucks are out of the playoff hunt. Otherwise, he should be a lock to re-sign.
Brandon Sutter hasn't played more than 61 games in any season over the past four and is in the same boat as Motte.
As for the other players listed, some like Di Guiseppe or Hunt might see 20 games or more in the NHL but the rest were brought in to bolster the first season for the Abbotsford Canucks in the AHL and on paper that team should be in contention for the Calder Cup this year.
Halak was brought in to give Mike Dipietro one more year of AHL experience and provide adequate goaltending this year.
Vegas Golden Knights
Reilly Smith (W) – 30; $5 million; 71-27-27-54
Mattias Janmark (W) – 28; $2 million; 56-11-14-25 with Chicago and Vegas last year
Brayden McNabb (D) – 30; $2.5 million; 81-4-12-16 with 200 hits and 139 blocked shots in 2018-19
Sven Baertschi (W) – 28; $750k; 32-9-7-16 over the past three seasons, which is pretty good pro-rated production at 0.5 pts/game. He battled concussion issues for much of 2018-19 and 2019-20. His best season was 2016-17 when he had 68-18-17-35
Jake Bischoff (D) – 27; $717k; career 4-0-0-0, 60-2-11-13 in AHL 2018-19 season
Reilly Smith had a fairly unproductive season last year with only 14 goals and 25 points in 53 games. With the progress of Peyton Krebs and Nicholas Roy, the Golden Knights might look at moving the $5 million cap hit that Smith has before the deadline. The club brought in Evgenii Dadonov who is signed for two more seasons at $5 million AAV which further clouds re-signing Smith.
Janmark makes $2 million AAV and Vegas might be wise to look at cheaper options but he was good in the 15 games he played in the regular season and 16 in the playoffs with Vegas last year. His CF percentage was 56.3 with Vegas
in 15 games and 42.1 in Chicago 41 games in the regular season and 50.9 in 16 playoff games so perhaps Vegas is onto something.
The emergence of Zach Whitecloud has made bringing back McNabb an uncertainty and the first half of this season should give Vegas their answer of what to do.
Winnipeg Jets
Paul Stastny (C) – 35; $3.75 million; 50-13-29-42 in Vegas with a 54.7 FO percentage
Andrew Copp (C/W) – 27; $3.64 million; 55-15-24-39 with 67 hits and 41 blocked shots
Riley Nash (C) – 32; $750k; 64-5-9-14 in Columbus with 68 hits and a 47.9 FO percentage
Nathan Beaulieu (D) – 28; $1.25 million; 48-3-9-12 with 60 hits and 42 blocked shots with Buffalo and Winnipeg in 2018-19
Luke Johnson (C) – 26; $750k; career 32-1-1-2 with 66 hits and a 49.3 FO percentage in Minnesota and Chicago; 42-18-13-31 in the AHL 2019-20
C.J. Suess (W) – 27; $725k; career 1-0-0-0; 57-14-13-27 in the AHL
Stastny's production has decreased the past two seasons, but he was still being deployed in more offensive situations than perhaps warranted. He is the best faceoff option the Jets have at 54.7 percent while next on the list is Andrew Copp at 53.0 percent. While I'm sure the Jets don't want to pay Copp $5 to 5.5 million over four or five years they might have little choice as I don't see them bringing Stastny back at 36 years of age.
Nash is a depth placeholder until the Jets have one of their younger centers progress to the point where they can play in the bottom-six, which should be this year or next with David Gustafsson or Cole Perfetti. Beaulieu is in the same boat as the team is waiting on Ville Heinola to make the team full-time which could be this year.
Thanks for reading and if you have any questions or players you’d like me to look at please message or follow me on Twitter @gampbler15.