We're well into the first round now, and that means there's not a lot of fantasy decisions left for the 2021-22 season, while the 2022 offseason hasn't really begun yet. Things do start to get rolling a little with the draft lottery though, which we saw last night where the Montreal Canadiens landed the first overall pick. New Jersey jumped up to second overall, while Arizona fell to third. It's going to be a fun show with Montreal hosting the draft and selecting first overall.

One of my fantasy leagues ties our non-playoff teams to the respective NHL teams for our own draft lottery. That means our draft order is now set, and I have the 10^th and 21^st overall picks. As a result, I'm trying to be as on top of the tiers as possible, and making sure I know what I want to be doing at each selection. Throughout the year I keep my eye out for any prospect rankings, prospect opinions, and noteworthy production (both positive and negative).

I don't pretend to be a scout, or someone that intricately knows NHL prospects, let alone those not even drafted. However, after years of playing in dynasty leagues where up to 1300 players are owned, and then we draft 120 prospects on top of that, you get to the point of finding a system that works. For me, I have found a knack for amalgamating the work of a lot of the scouts in the public sphere, and fine tuning that into a fantasy hockey draft list.

One of the biggest weightings goes to the DobberProspects Fantasy Draft Ranking, which is an incredible resource every year. On top of that, you find the rest of the Dobber scouts, and the guys they are bouncing things off of, expanding the network from there. My list gets started with 25 or so names around the World Juniors, and slowly grows from there to the end of the season. Players are periodically being shifted when I come across a new scouting report that is especially damning or gives a larger amount of praise than usual. The overall result is a weighted opinion of mine based on what all the scouts are saying about each player, and how I feel that will play out in terms of fantasy upside, their likelihood of reaching both the NHL and that upside, while also taking into account possible arrival time. In this year's case I may be dropping the Russians to the bottom of a tier, but not lower than that. Value is value in the end, and players like Kirill Kaprizov were passed on too much just because of the KHL/Russia risk.

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Tier 1 (1):

Shane Wright

Wright is still in his own class here. His numbers as an exceptional-status rookie in the OHL were better than McDavid's and he did so with the majority of his point totals being goals. After the lost season due to Covid, it seems as though Wright needed time to adjust back to the flow of the game. In the second half of his pre-draft year (D-1 season), everything seemed to sync back up and he was averaging two points per game.

Corey Pronman had an article yesterday behind the Athletic paywall that outlined the Wright debate and whether he should still be considered a shoe-in for first overall. In it, he posted a chart of first overall picks from the CHL since 2005, and their productions pre-draft. Wright sat second last on the list, nestled below Nico Hischier and Nail Yakupov, and ahead of only Rick Nash. However, if we use his second half of the season and give him a bit of leeway for the lost developmental year last year, Wrights numbers would instead put him fifth on the list, behind only Sidney Crosby, Connor McDavid, Patrick Kane, and Alexis Lafreniere. The upside is there, and one thing that everyone seems to agree on in the public scouting sphere is that the floor is also high because of how smart and responsible Wright is as a player.

Wright is your first overall pick in fantasy drafts, and don't overthink it.

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Tier 2 (2-5):

The top three in this tier appear to be the easy consensus, and you can put them in any order with no one getting too worked up about it. Slafkovsky has shown himself better against men in the Olympics and in European play, however, some do see Cooley and Nazar as higher upside plays, so when we have more upside in a similar tier, that goes higher on my board. The bottom of this tier goes to Brad Lambert, whose production in Finland is extremely divisive. He hasn't put up the numbers expected of someone that was viewed as a contender for the top forward in the draft as recently as last season, but the upside is still there. He is a risky pick, so if that's not to your taste you can drop him down a bit, especially once we see where he lands in the NHL, but Lambert is simply the last player in this draft with upside to match the other four ahead of him.

Tier 3 (6-10):

Matt Savoie

Liam Ohgren

Joakim Kemell

Jonathan Lekkerimakki

Danila Yurov

Matt Savoie might be the most dynamic forward in the class, but he is not nearly as well rounded as those in the top tiers, so he drops down a little because of the projectability. Yurov isn't getting dropped here because he's Russian, he may be more of a responsible player and despite a high floor and decent upside, he could be a bit more of a valuable NHL player rather than standout fantasy player.

Kemell I have had starred since last year when someone mentioned he could be a shooter on the level of Brady Tkachuk. That kind of volume can be huge in fantasy leagues, but it does seem like he is more one-dimensional than some other options. The Swedish duo that sandwich him are both high upside, though it seems Lekkerimakki is higher on most public boards because of his high-end shot. However, reading into Ohgren, I get the feeling his skills may be a bit more transferrable, and as a result I have him higher on my list.

Tier 4 (11-16)

Defencemen fall down my rankings for fantasy because they take longer to develop, are less projectable than forwards, and seem to have smaller peak windows in their careers even when they are productive. All in all it's tough to use a first round pick on one, and I haven't done so in years (with no regrets). That being said, both Jiricek and Nemec are top-five talents in this draft, so I can't push them any farther down.

After them is Denton Mateychuk. There are a few other top defencemen in this class, and they will show up in the next tier, but Mateychuk is the only one that seems to have that dynamic ceiling we hope for when we draft defencemen.

Sandwiched in the middle is one of my draft favourites in Noah Ostlund. Some love him, and others have him firmly outside of the first round. The floor might be a little lower on him, but others are convinced there's some real and projectable upside with him. As for Geekie, there are also red flags to go with a lower floor, but the upside is still fairly high.

Tier 5 (17-23)

This group includes a few upside plays, a couple big mobile defencemen, and one player who should have been in the top-10 conversation if not for extenuating circumstances. Ivan Miroshnichenko was diagnosed with Hodgkins Lymphoma, and though it is apparently now in remission, he has missed key development time, as well as the uncertainty of his full recovery. He's a risky swing here, but if he's still on the board for you at this point, no one has nearly the same upside.

After this point, we get into the range where I would be very comfortable trading down 10-20 picks and being certain I could nab a similar if not even a better player.

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Tier 6 (24-42)

Lian Bichsel

Lucas Edmonds

Feel free to leave me a note here or on Twitter @alexdmaclean if you think I forgot someone, or if you have any comments about the list.

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The Vezina nominees were announced yesterday as well, with Juuse Saros, Jacob Markstrom, and Igor Shesterkin as the three finalists. This is Shesterkin's award to lose, and it would be shocking for it to go anywhere else. He had one of, if not the best season, since the 2005 lockout.

The nominees were all deserving this year, though it does feel a little like Ilya Sorokin was robbed. He was a top three goalie this year, and there's an argument to be made that he was the second best one overall.

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The Leafs started slowly again, and it looked like a sure thing by the end of the first that the game (and the series) were not going to go their way. They did manage to come back though with some huge saves from Jack Campbell, and a couple big goals from their stars.

It does seem though that we will see changes this summer. If they win the cup then there will be an exodus of free agents seeking a pay raise, while in the more likely situation where they don't, it looks as though William Nylander may be one of the better bets to be moved. Playing elsewhere as a top line winger it wouldn't surprise me to see him put up career high numbers.

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The Hurricanes bounced back at home and took game five. The Bruins did have Charlie McAvoy back in the lineup though, so don't count them out in game six.

Without McAvoy in the lineup for game four, Matt Grzelcyk played nearly 20 minutes, including seven on the power play, and notched his only three shots in this year's playoffs. He's someone to watch as the second best offensive option on the Bruins' blueline, and he's only one season removed from a 44-point pace.

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We're into double digits with the number of teams in the playoffs that have used at least two goalies, but I would not have guessed that Minnesota would be one of the last not to do so. They are riding trade-deadline acquisition Marc-Andre Fleury, while their starter all season, Cam Talbot, is riding the pine. Talbot also finished the season incredibly strong, but in spite of a few poor games, the Wild haven't found a time to put him in.

Talbot has one more year after this one, and is being paid under $4M. He will be 35 by the time the 2022-23 season gets underway, but he may still be one of the best value netminders for the year. He should be a volume starter for a top team in the league, and likely won't be one of the first eight or so goalies off the board in redraft leagues.

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A future Hall-of-Famer and the all-time games played leader officially announced his retirement yesterday, with Patrick Marleau hanging up the skates.

#SJSharks legend Patrick Marleau announces his retirement after 23 NHL seasons.https://t.co/uGbdZsaCTJ
— San Jose Sharks (@SanJoseSharks) May 10, 2022

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Cheers!

UPCOMING GAMES

Dec 23 - 13:12	N.J	vs	NYR
Dec 23 - 14:12	TOR	vs	WPG
Dec 23 - 19:12	DET	vs	STL
Dec 23 - 19:12	CBJ	vs	MTL
Dec 23 - 19:12	BOS	vs	WSH
Dec 23 - 19:12	FLA	vs	T.B
Dec 23 - 19:12	PIT	vs	PHI
Dec 23 - 19:12	NYI	vs	BUF
Dec 23 - 20:12	NSH	vs	CAR
Dec 23 - 20:12	MIN	vs	CHI
Dec 23 - 21:12	UTA	vs	DAL
Dec 23 - 21:12	VAN	vs	S.J
Dec 23 - 22:12	VGK	vs	ANA