Fantasy Take: Campbell Signs in Edmonton

Ian Gooding

2022-07-13

The Edmonton Oilers have signed Jack Campbell to a five-year contract worth $5 million per season.

Campbell finished with an impressive 31-9-6 record with the Maple Leafs last season. However, that doesn't mean his entire season went smoothly. Check out his first half/second half splits:

 GPWLOTLGAASV%QUALQUAL%GSAA
1st half2517521.890.9391976.020.33
2nd half2414443.470.888937.5-16.06

In other words, Campbell looked like an All-Star during the first half (which he was) but struggled mightily in the second half. His playoff numbers (3.15 GAA, 0.897 SV%) were somewhat misleading when you factor in his overall decent performance against Tampa Bay. However, the overall body of work wasn't enough for Kyle Dubas to show ultimate faith in Campbell and hand him the contract he was looking for. Ultimately the Leafs decided to move on, trading for the less expensive Matt Murray (after Ottawa's cap retention) and signing Ilya Samsonov (1 year, $1.8 million).

Edmonton is a team that had its own goaltending issues last season and was thus in desperate need of a starting goalie. Mike Smith had swings of top-level play and stretches where he showed his age when he wasn't injured, and he is rumored to be retiring. Mikko Koskinen clearly wasn't the answer and has now signed with a Swiss team. Stuart Skinner has potential, but he is only 23 and has played just 14 NHL games, while the Oilers are a team that is trying to win now.

Expect Campbell to pick up plenty of wins as he did with the Leafs. He will have his spectacular games, while he will have others where he will get pulled after allowing 4-5 goals midway through the game. The way the Oilers play, he might pick up wins in games where either his performance or his own team's defensive performance is lackluster. It's worth noting that only Marc-Andre Fleury and Karel Vejmelka were tagged with more Really Bad Starts than Campbell (11 RBS) last season.

Campbell's overall value should remain mostly unchanged, as the Leafs and Oilers profile as similar teams – more than enough offense but question marks defensively. Whether to start him on a game-by-game basis will depend on whether you need a win and can sacrifice ratios in the process, how hot or cold he is at the moment, and the matchup itself. In other words, don't rely on him as a set-and-forget option for the entire season.

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