Ramblings: Kadri Lands in Calgary, Bubble Keeper Week Player Comparisons (Aug 19)

Ian Gooding

2022-08-19

As we all expected, Nazem Kadri finally picked his team during Bubble Keeper Week! The free agent center has reportedly signed a seven-year contract worth $49 million total with the Calgary Flames. The scoring fit in Calgary was easy to spot with the offseason departures of Johnny Gaudreau and Matthew Tkachuk. However, I didn't think Kadri would choose Calgary since he reportedly turned down a trade there in 2019. For much more on the signing fantasy-wise, Mike took care of the Fantasy Take not long after news of the signing.

In a related move to clear cap space, the Flames have traded Sean Monahan and a 2025 conditional first-round pick to the Montreal Canadiens for future considerations. The conditions for this pick are too lengthy for me to list and explain here, but you can find them if you are looking for some light reading. Cliffy also broke down the Fantasy Take for Monahan, who is trying to get his career back on track after surgeries on both hips.

Acquiring Monahan made more sense for the Habs because we now know that Carey Price will probably start the season on LTIR. According to Canadiens GM Kent Hughes, Price is expected to miss the start of the season, and he may not play at all in 2022-23 because of his injured knee. Price played in just five games last season, so this news isn't all that surprising. As it stands, the Habs will likely enter the season with a goaltending tandem of Jake Allen and Sam Montembeault, either of who will likely struggle to win most nights. Price may be forced to ride out the remainder of his contract on LTIR, which would be an unfortunate way for his career to end.

Hope you are finding Bubble Keeper Week useful if you have some keeper decisions to make. Perhaps you are making decisions among players similar to the ones that have been written so far, or maybe you need to make decisions on higher-echelon or lower-echelon players. Leagues come in all shapes and sizes, so a valuable keeper in one league might not make the cut in another league. Either way, hopefully the content this week helps your thought process and even provides some unique perspectives on players you need to decide on.

Today I'm going to venture into a league where I can keep only four players. This decision might not capture the essence of Bubble Keeper Week, since these clearly aren't fringe players. However, I'm going to push back on the idea that a limited keeper league (four players or fewer) is not a keeper league. If you can only protect one player, then you have some semblance of a keeper format. Not only can decisions on star players be just as difficult as those for fringe players, they can also be more impactful to your team's success. Making the wrong choice for an elite player can be a major factor in not being able to win your league.

Also, since this list arguably does not contain any top 20 fantasy players, this decision is not an easy one. If I had a Connor McDavid or Auston Matthews, I would have an easier choice or two. That being said, I've identified one player (non-goalie) to be a keeper no matter what. Can you guess who that would be among my list of players in the keeper decision mix?

Keepers from last offseason: Brad Marchand, John Carlson, Gabriel Landeskog, Dougie Hamilton

Players drafted for 2021-22: J.T. Miller, Chris Kreider, Morgan Rielly, Vladimir Tarasenko, Anze Kopitar, Frederik Andersen, Juuse Saros

I've got time to sit on this one, since a decision isn't likely due until around late September, assuming a draft takes place in early October. Having said that, I'll use this opportunity to evaluate what I have and make comparisons so that I can tell you who I at least prefer right now. Things can change between now and then, such as injuries, team composition, and of course my mind. This could also serve as a “who should you pick” in single-season leagues for a handful of universally-relevant players.

Full disclosure: Fantasy Hockey Geek helps me out tremendously with these rankings, compiling a ranking of all of these players based on each category. If you play in a multicategory league, get yours today and you won't regret it.

Right off the bat, I'm going to eliminate several players from the list.

Marchand – He's been a keeper on this team for several seasons, and might be again if not for the hip surgery that is expected to sideline him for the first two months of the season. Marchand is also now 34 years of age, which doesn't help his cause in a keeper format.

Hamilton – Also a keeper from last season. Hamilton could only score at a 40-point pace in his first season in New Jersey. We will find out this season whether he just needed time to settle in or the team is an overall bad fit for his talents, but in my mind, he's fallen out of a keep-4 discussion.

Tarasenko – I was happy to draft him after pick 100, and his 82 points represented a career high. He doesn't quite hold the cross-category coverage of Kreider or Landeskog, and I'm more likely to be able to redraft him later.

Kopitar – I only drafted Kopitar two picks before Tarasenko. Age is also a factor (34), as is multicategory ability similar to Tarasenko. It'll also be easier to sneak him in later as a pick if I so choose.

Did you guess correctly who my for-sure keeper will be? Hopefully it wasn't one of the four players listed above. Unless someone can provide a strongly compelling case otherwise, I will be retaining J.T. Miller. Overall, Miller was the 11th-ranked player in this league and the leading scorer on this team, just falling one point shy of 100 points. In addition to finishing in the top 10 in league scoring, Miller was also tied for third in the league with 38 power-play points, and he finished in the top 50 with 171 hits – no other top-50 scorer had that many hits.

Only one of the four keepers can be a goalie. Last offseason, I elected not to keep a goalie in spite of winning the league championship with standout goaltending. Philipp Grubauer and Alex Nedeljkovic were both moving to inferior teams, while Tuukka Rask would miss the start of the season with an injury, if he were to return at all. That turned out to be a wise move on my part. This season I will likely keep one goalie, but it won't be an easy decision. I have to pick between two possible top-5 goalies in Andersen and Saros.

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Andersen and Saros are both top-5 goalies by my ranks (Igor Shesterkin, Andrei Vasilevskiy, Jacob Markstrom also included). That means I will be throwing an outstanding fantasy goalie back into the water, possibly to be picked up by someone else early in the draft. Let's compare the two goalies from last season by the three fantasy categories in this league.

NameAgeTeamGPWGAASV%
FREDERIK ANDERSEN32CAR52352.170.922
JUUSE SAROS27NSH67382.640.918

Saros earned more wins last season, but he had the benefit of more starts, partially because of an injury to Andersen late in the season. Carolina is a better team than Nashville and should earn more wins, but Saros should start a few more games because the Predators have an iffier backup goaltending situation (Kevin Lankinen or Connor Ingram) than the Hurricanes (Antti Raanta). The wins might actually even out here.

The save percentage is also similar, with Andersen receiving a slight edge. There's more separation with the goals-against average, as Andersen benefits from playing in front of a team that is stronger defensively and is less reliant on the goalie. A strong goalie that faces a ton of shots can end up with an outstanding save percentage short term. Yet over time, that style of play can lead to more goals allowed and fewer wins. Carolina has a better SAT% and allows fewer shots per game than Nashville, which makes for a healthier goaltending environment for Andersen. I could perform a much more detailed comparison, particularly by going back more seasons. With this basic level of information, I prefer Andersen here, as I think he's put his struggles with the Leafs behind him.

Player Compare: Andersen/Saros

I could keep two defensemen or two forwards as my final two keepers. For simplicity, I will compare the two remaining defensemen and the two remaining forwards with each other.

NameAgeGPGAPTS/GPPPPSOG+/-HitsBkS
JOHN CARLSON327817540.91251951373112
MORGAN RIELLY288210580.8323221169287

The two defensemen are very close in scoring categories, although Carlson has the advantage over Rielly in points-per-game both last season and over the past three seasons (0.95 PTS/GP vs. 0.71 PTS/GP). Rielly had the advantage in shots last season, although that advantage belonged to Carlson over the last three seasons. The differences in hits and blocks cancel each other out, as Rielly hits more but Carlson blocks more shots. That trend also holds for the last three seasons. Carlson gets the edge here.

Player Compare: Carlson/Rielly

The last player comparison involves two power forwards.

NameAgeGPGAPTS/GPPPSOG+/-HitsBkS
CHRIS KREIDER318152250.95352582014139
GABRIEL LANDESKOG295130291.1615150279434

Based on the 2021-22 season only, Kreider looks like the much better player, but Landeskog was limited in terms of games played. Landeskog has missed double-digit games in two of the last three seasons, which should be identified as a concern for him right off the bat. Kreider had the 52-goal season, which has elevated his fantasy stock, but that could be considered a one-off considering that he had never previously had a 30-goal season, let alone a 50-goal season. Another 30-goal season should be a certainty based on his power-play usage, but you'll clearly have to find assists elsewhere.

This is an interesting one because going back three seasons, the advantage shifts more toward Landeskog. Kreider projects to be as good or slightly better in the remaining categories, so that's who I would lean with right now. Yet if you've followed these players longer than a season, you'll know this is closer than you'd think.

Player Compare: Kreider/Landeskog

One more note: Since this is a keep-4 league, the keeper decisions I make are very year to year. So I'm not as concerned about picking the older player as one might be in a league with more keepers. I'd like to think I have a chance to compete for a title every season.

Tomorrow I'll have more players that might better qualify as bubble keepers in the original meaning of the term. I'll explain more then. In the meantime, follow me on Twitter @Ian_Gooding for more fantasy hockey.

2 Comments

  1. smartin4 2022-08-19 at 07:27

    This was convenient! I was having a hard time narrowing down a keep-3 from Ovechkin, Miller, Carlson, P Kane, and Marchand. Standard Yahoo league. Nice to see a few of those guys come up together in your article. I’ve settled on the first 3 unless Kane gets traded.

  2. mikey 2022-08-21 at 16:42

    What strikes me about Landy v. Krieder, is in my leagues where fw is used, this isn’t even a question. Landy fw from wing is gold, I just don’t trust him long term.

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