Welcome back to another edition of the Roos Lets Loose monthly mailbag, where I answer your fantasy hockey questions by giving advice that should be useful to all poolies even if they don't own the specific players being discussed. As a reminder, if you want your fantasy hockey question(s) answered in the next mailbag, check out the end of the column, where I explain the ways to get it/them to me as well as the details you should provide when sending. The earlier you send a question the more likely it is to be included in the mailbag, and the deeper dive I can provide with my reply.

IMPORTANT NOTE – The next mailbag won't go live until after the start of the regular season. So please don't send me any further questions about keepers, as I won't be able to get you an answer in time.

Question #1 (from DobberHockey Forums)

I've joined a new 32 team salary cap keeper, with starting line-ups of 12F, 6D, 2G, plus 3 Bench. The skater categories are one point each for a goal or assist, and 0.1 for a hit, a block or a SOG. I picked 2nd overall, which, due to our snake draft, meant I didn't pick again until 63rd. My first two picks were Auston Matthews and Artemi Panarin. I'm wrestling with who to take with my third round pick, which will be 66th overall, especially since I won't pick again until 127th. Players I'm considering are Drake Batherson, Brad Marchand, Evan Bouchard, Rasmus Dahlin, Marco Rossi, Quinton Byfield, Sidney Crosby, John Carlson, Aaron Ekblad, Thomas Chabot and Dougie Hamilton. Who would you select?

I get that it's a cap league and it's brand new, both of which seemingly incent you to grab younger guys on cheaper contracts; but I think that is not a winning approach this early in an inaugural draft. When talking about third round picks, they need to be surefire producers, and most of these skaters don't meet that criteria. Dahlin and Eklbad are close; but I think even they'd be reaches. In short, when you can pick proven producers ala Marchand, Carlson, or Crosby, and, just as importantly, you won't pick again until after 60 other guys have come off the board, you need to go with the best players available, even if, as here, they're well on the other side of 30 and expensive. Dahlin and Ekblad are tempting; but I think it'd still be a bit too early to take one of them, and even more so with the rest you listed. Chances are neither is there at 127th; still though, it's better to not take someone than to reach for him too soon.

Which grey beard makes the most sense? I worry enough about what I saw from Marchand that I think his days of 100+ points are over, as rarely does a player drop below that mark at his age and then rise back to it again. Not only that, but I fear his scoring is likelier to continue to drop given the trajectory of the Bs, plus he's going to miss time and perhaps be rusty upon his return. Crosby’s value is still solid what with Pittsburgh keeping its core intact. The concern though is the three centers who averaged closest to Crosby in points per game from age 30 to 34 were Ron Francis, Adam Oates, and Marcel Dionne, and none of them scored at higher than an 85 point pace again from age 35 onward. On the other hand, the only center other than Crosby who averaged a point per game or higher every season through age 34 was Wayne Gretzky, who went on to have 90+ points three more times in his career. Lastly there's Carlson, who has superb deployment and is such a steady, tried and true point producer. The concern though is I think the Caps will be markedly worse this season, so Carlson might not be as productive, as if his team isn't scoring it'd be tough for him to pile on the points as he usually does.

In the end, I think the pick is Crosby. Yes he's expensive and could slow; but he's shown no signs of doing so and the Pens kept their key players, boding well for continued success. If you're lucky, Dahlin, Ekblad, or one of the others you named might be there at pick 127, although for the record I might not even take Rossi or Byfield there despite their ELCs, and instead aim for them in rounds five or six. Good luck!

Question #2 (from Slevil)

I'm in a keep 6 league where we start 4C, 4LW, 4RW, 6D, 1Util, 2G, plus have 4 Bench. Scoring is 1 point for each goal or assist, plus, on top of that, an additional 1 point for each PPG, GWG or shorthanded assist, an additional 2 points for each shorthanded goal, and an additional 0.5 points for each PP assist. For goalies, it's 2 points for each win, an additional 2 points for each shutout, and .01 points per save. There is no offseason trading allowed.

My for sure keepers are Artemi Panarin, Aleksander Barkov, Roman Josi, and Jack Eichel. My options for the last two spots are Jason Robertson, Andrei Svechnikov, Kevin Fiala, Vladimir Tarasenko, Teuvo Teravainen and Kris Letang. I also have Jacob Markstrom and Jake Oettinger as retainable goalies. I'm leaning towards Robertson and Svechnikov for the last two spots; but Fiala is intriguing in LA, what with finally having a decent center and a locked in spot on PP1. Panarin, Svechnikov, and Robertson are all LW; but I don't think that makes a difference in the grand scheme of things. Fiala is LW/RW, for what it's worth. What are your thoughts on my final 2 keepers? Do I consider a goalie?

My initial take is goalies are not valuable given the league's categories. In fact, I’m not sure a single one would’ve had 100 fantasy points last season based on your scoring. As a result, I’m not keeping Markstrom or Oettinger. Don’t get me wrong – I like them both, but not given your league's scoring system.

For your six skaters, I'm on board with your locks, but no way am I keeping Svechnikov. Carolina spreads ice time around and Svechnikov, for whatever reason, just isn’t getting top tier deployment. Without “banger” categories or SOG he’s not a keep. Dallas used to be similar in terms of ice time stinginess; but now that Pete DeBoer is coach I predict he will lean on guys like Roberston more. And if Robertson was able to get as many points as he did without optimal deployment, he could really explode. I think he has to be one of the other two.

The last one is a toughie between Tarasenko and Fiala. I think there’s a good chance they score within five points of each other in your system. If Tarasenko had been traded and was likely to be leaned on more, I’d opt for him; however, it appears he will stay in St. Louis, where, although he’s on what's arguably is the top unit, the reality that the Blues role three scoring lines means he won’t see as much ice time at ES or on the PP as Fiala will likely get, what with LA poised to give Fiala the keys to the kingdom. Fiala had 85 points despite nine PPPts less than any of the 19 forwards who scored more points than him in 2021-22, plus Fiala had 55 PPSOG, ranking him 40th among all forwards but with only seven of those ahead of him taking the ice for less PP Time and those seven averaging 23 PPPts, versus his 17. If things stay the same, i.e., Tarasenko isn’t traded to a spot where he’s likely to explode, I’d give a narrow edge to Fiala. That having been said, it's close enough for there to be no "wrong" choice from where I sit, so if your gut tells you Tarasenko instead, I could get behind that too. Good luck!

Question #3 (from Ben)

I'm in a 16 team H2H, keep 9 league. Weekly line-ups consist of 9F, 4D, 2G, plus we each have 5 Bench spots. Categories are G, A, PPP, Blks+Hits, PIM, Wins and GAA. We have a cap of $60M and players are signed on 3 year contracts at varying amounts in $0.5M increments based on our draft, which is a combination of an auction and descending value rounds to claim players starting at $7.5M and going down to $0.5M. We can keep 2 prospects beyond the 20 salaried players; they can be activated at any time at a salary of $1.0M. Free agents who are picked up are assigned a salary of $2.0M.

I'm pretty set on Jason Robertson ($2.0M), Roman Josi ($7.0M), Thatcher Demko ($1.0M), Tanner Jeannot ($2.0M), Tyler Bertuzzi ($0.5M) and Morgan Reilly ($5.5M) as keepers, and need to pick three more from the following five, each of whom has two seasons left on his contract: Troy Terry ($2.0M), Jakub Vrana ($2.0M), Mikael Sergachev ($2.0M), Brayden Schenn ($2.0M), and Shayne Gostisbehere ($2.0M). My two prospects are Alex Newhook and Jake Oettinger, with it likely that I'll activate at least one of them so as to be able to draft a new prospect.

Do you agree with my locks? If not, who wouldn't you keep and why? And either way, who would be your nine keepers? Also, what is your opinion on Newhook?

With 20 roster spots, average salary among players is $3M, which sounds low except for the provision that any free agent costs only $2M. What's interesting is your players all earn either $2M or less, or $5.5M or more, none in between. That makes Josi and Rielly stick out as expensive. Still, because your other contracts are so low, you can "afford" both. As such, I'm good with your six designated keepers, allowing us to focus on who the other three should be.

First and foremost, I don't think Ghost is a keep. Yes, he had a strong 2021-22; however, his IPPs were high for him, as was his SH% and secondary assists percentage. The other wrinkle is that he figures to be moved during the season, as he's set to be a UFA next summer. Although a trade from a team like Arizona to another should sound like good news, I'm not sure it is. Ghost was the top dog on the PP for the Coyotes, and that might not be a role he assumes on a new team, particularly if he's dished to a deep contender. And then there's the inherent distrust that poolies would have in Ghost being able to perform well again, after he burned many of them with his subpar play in his last three seasons as a Flyer. So although 176 players will be drafted, it's not clear Ghost will be among them, leaving him available to be grabbed at the same $2.0M price tag but not costing a keeper spot. I'd let him go.

Then there's Vrana, whom I covered extensively in my last Forum Buzz, noting he's all but assured to be earmarked for the second line at ES and on the PP. Also, injuries have become enough of an issue as to cause concern not just about them being an annual thing but also taking a toll on his ability to perform at his highest level. Lastly, his pattern of scoring at a 60 point level is difficult to ignore; and barring a promotion to the top line, which would come in the unlikely event that Lucas Raymond falters, it's difficult – not impossible, but difficult – to envision Vrana doing much better. Don't get me wrong – I think in a league where 320 players are rostered, Vrana should be one of them, but not as a keeper.

Terry looks poised to do at least as well given his metrics and his best ice time and SOG rate coming in Q4, plus just having just hit his 200 game breakout threshold. Sergachev is hurt by the long shadow cast by Victor Hedman; but in a league that counts HIT and BLK, he has nice value and is not going to do worse and could have another gear. Schenn shined in the second half, hits a lot, and, perhaps most importantly, didn't lose either of his most frequent linemates in Jordan Kyrou and Ivan Barbashev, in contrast to the other Blues lines, which featured the departed David Perron and Vladimir Tarasenko, who still could be traded at some point. I prefer them as your other three keeps.

As for Newhook, I really like him. His IPP, at 71.7%, was above the key 70% threshold I want to see from a young player. He also scored just below a point per every other game – including ten in his last 14 contests – despite a 43% OZ%, which, with the exodus of Nazem Kadri, could skyrocket. Colorado also is unlikely to upgrade its forwards in view of its cap spend now and the huge impending raise for Nathan MacKinnon next summer, giving Newhook a path to join – and remain in – the top six. Good luck!

Question #4 (from Matthew)

I'm in a H2H, points only keeper with 12 teams. Each team is allotted five keepers, but none can be players who were drafted in the first three rounds. We start 6F, 4D, 1G, plus get 6 Bench spots, 2 IR spots and 1 IR+ spot. Goals and assists are worth two points each, PPPts are an extra 1.5 points, and SHP are an extra 2 points each. Goalies get 2 points for a win and 3 extra points for a shutout.

I have ten keeper contenders: Jason Robertson, Kevin Fiala, Johnny Gaudreau, John Klingberg, Evan Bouchard, Alexis Lafreniere, Jake Guentzel, Thomas Chabot, Gabriel Landeskog, Connor Hellebuyck. I'm leaning toward keeping Robertson, Fiala, Guentzel, Gaudreau, and Landeskog. I've considered keeping Chabot instead of Landeskog with the improvements to Ottawa this offseason, but I'm on the fence. I also think about Evan Bouchard eventually taking over Edmonton's power play once they finally realize he's better than Barrie, which I think would make him more valuable than Chabot. Who would your five keepers be?

Right off the bat I'm in agreement that you don't keep a goalie. With wins and shutouts being the only categories and only one starting, you should be able to get a decent one at the draft, as there were a total of 12 goalies who had 30+ wins but none had 40+. There is enough parity to make it so each of the league's 12 teams should be able to get a true starter who will do what a goalie needs to do in this league, which is keep the team in contention.

With 60 keepers, Lafreniere isn't one. It is possible he connects the dots and becomes the player the Rangers expected when they picked him first overall; but that's not enough to put him above more proven options. As for defensemen, I also don't believe any make the cut as a top-60 keeper. Yes, Klingberg will be eager to shine given that he's set to be a UFA again; and the last time a veteran d-man did what Klingberg did in inking a one year UFA deal it was Tyson Barrie, who proceeded to lead the league in rearguard points. But playing for Edmonton is a far cry from skating for the Ducks, who are still trying to crystalize. Speaking of Edmonton, there's Bouchard. I agree that it's a matter of when, not if, he'll ascend to great heights. Much like Florida had no choice but to give Keith Yandle cushy minutes in 2019-20 and 2020-21, the same will likely occur with Barrie this season and maybe next. Once Barrie is phased out though, I see Bouchard as likely to rise, ala what Aaron Ekblad did for Florida last season. Until then, Bouchard likely has a ceiling of 45 or maybe 50 points, making him not a keep here. Lastly there's Chabot, whose 2021-22 deployment that could not have been better, as he led the league in TOI per game among d-men yet barely skated on the PK. The problem is he's not a success on the PP, as over the past four seasons he collectively had the ninth most PP time among all d-men, yet his PP scoring was a disappointing 24th. That was before the Sens brought in Alex DeBrincat and Claude Giroux, who should syphon away more PPPts than other less talented forwards had done in the past. A rising tide in Ottawa should lift all boats, including Chabot's; however, it seems like a stretch to envision him scoring above 60 points, if even that many, making him a close call but ultimately not a keep.

That leaves the forwards you listed as probably your keepers. All of them are – or, in the case of Fiala, will be – top line staples on the PP and at ES, with each having point per game downside. And in a league where 60 players are kept and, in 2021-22, a total of only 38 forwards scored at a point per game or higher level, that would put you ahead of the curve in terms of keeper quality. The only wrinkle with this plan is you will need to draft all four of your d-men; and if other teams keep one or two, it will be slim pickings. If you think that is a concern given your league, then I'd trade Fiala or Landeskog and one of your d-men for a higher tier defenseman, balancing your keepers a bit better. Good luck!

Question #5 (from Marko)

I'm in a dynasty league that has 20 teams and uses the NHL's Salary Cap. Each weekly H2H matchup has 15 total categories (G, A, Pts, PIM, SOG, HIT, BLK, Special teams points, FOWs, Takeaways, plus 5 goalie categories).

I lost in the finals last year and have a competitive team again. Nathan Mackinnon and Jordan Kyrou are my big free agents after this season. Is it worth it to keep them for a chance at the championship, or should I be trading them before their salaries balloon next season? I have enough good, cheap, entry level prospects that I could absorb the Mackinnon contract even if he gets over $11M; but if so, then I would never be able to afford Kyrou's new deal, particularly if he gets anything close to what Robert Thomas landed. 

Also, what do you think about Connor McMichael? I feel he may struggle to gain traction on a veteran heavy Capitals team, especially with additions like Connor Brown and Dylan Strome.

No question Mac and Kyrou will be easier to move now than this time next year. If you'd won the league last season I'd say trade them both; however, you fell short, so I feel you owe it to yourself to give your team the best chance to try and win, which means keeping them both. That having been said, I feel like Kyrou might be at or near his realistic ceiling, as the Blues seem hesitant to give him PP1 time and his IPPs were both over 80%, which is difficult to achieve on a year to year basis other than the true best of the best in the league. To other GMs, Kyrou is likely seen as on an ascent that'll likely only continue; as such, you most likely would be able to get more in return for Kyrou based on his perceived value than his actual value. Why not do this – put Kyrou out there for offers and see what you can land in return. If you get a deal that allows you to not lose much, if any, ground scoring-wise, but removes you from the looming Kyrou raise, then you pull the trigger.

As for Mac, let me remind everyone again that he's the only center other than Wayne Gretzky to have had more than two seasons of 4.3+ SOG and 1.3+ points per game by age 26. Although it's not ideal that your league counts HIT and BLK rather than PPPts, Mac actually is pretty good in those categories, or at least good enough not to chip away at the huge advantages he gives you in scoring and SOG. The other thing that one needs to take into account is Mac likely realizes if he takes a bit less money than he could earn in the open market, that would allow the Avs to potentially position themselves as perennial Cup contenders. Yes, he was significantly underpaid for a while; however, if a player can opt to make $110M instead of $130M and, in doing so, give his team a better chance at winning several more Cups, chances are he does it. Hold onto Mac, enjoy his amazing stats, and hope for the best come next summer in terms of the cap hit for his new deal.

Regarding McMichael, I don't expect great things. The issue is the Caps have too many veterans and a narrow window to win, which will hold McMichael back. Yes, he'll gain key experience being around players of this talent level; however, come a few years from now when McMichael figures to be starting to hit his prime, the Caps could be embarking on a rebuild, leaving him with all the ice time he can handle yet no supporting cast. Although I do think he has talent, I don't see him as a "the guy" type of player who could score in droves without skilled players around him to help carry the load. He's not someone I'm looking to acquire in keepers; and in fact, I might be trying to trade him now before his "new car smell" wears off. As we know, if a prospect falls short of lofty expectations, his value often takes more of a hit than deserved, and he becomes tougher to trade for fair value. Good luck!

Question #6 (from Alexey)

I'm in a 16-team, keep 8 league, with rosters of 3LW, 3C, 3RW, 5D, 1 Util, 2G, plus 6 Bench and with categories of G, A, PIM, PPP, GWG, SOG, HIT, BLK, W, GAA, SV%. I made an unsuccessful playoff push last season so I'm left with a lot more potential keepers than I can actually keep. Here are my options: Nikita Kucherov, Alex Ovechkin, Patrick Kane, Elias Pettersson, Mathew Barzal, Jordan Kyrou, Vladimir Tarasenko, Jason Robertson, Mats Zuccarello, Troy Terry, Claude Giroux, Joe Pavelski, Nicolaj Ehlers, Erik Karlsson, John Klingberg, Jamie Drysdale, Ville Husso, Karel Vejmelka, Ilya Samsonov.

I'm trying to make some trades, and as of now I have an offer of a 1st and 3rd round pick for Kane and Ehlers, which would help me recoup picks I traded away during last season's push. I think this would be wise – do you agree? Either way, who are my top keepers in your opinion? My instinct tells me they'd be Husso, Kucherov, Ovechkin, Kane (if not traded), Pettersson, Robertson, Terry, Tarasenko.

Separate from that question, which three would you keep in the same format: Tony DeAngelo, Drew Doughty, Tyler Bertuzzi, Jordan Kyrou, Mats Zuccarello, Oliver Bjorkstrand, Andrei Burakovsky?

First off, I'm not sure any of your goalies are keepable, even in a 16-team league. Yes, I realize that goalie categories account for 30% of scoring despite goalies only constituting 11% of your starting line-up; but only one goalie category is volume-based. As such, I think you could adopt a strategy of trying to start guys who, although they aren't true #1 netminders, will give you solid SV% and GAA when they do play. With all due respect to Husso, I'm not sure I saw enough from him in St. Louis to figure him to be an asset in those categories, especially with him having by far his worst stats in Q4, once he became starter. Yes, that might have been due to fatigue and the risk of it recurring in Detroit, when he should be a #1A at worst, is smaller; still, to me he doesn't make the cut as a keeper. Plus, tossing your goalies back into the free agent pile give you one more keeper spot to use on your skaters, where your true talent lies.

In terms of the trade offer, I think I'd do it. Kane is amazing; however, I'm not sure even he will be able to make his usual magic happen on a Chicago team that finished 29th in goals and no longer has on its roster forwards who scored more than half the measly goals they did manage. There is only so much that one man can do, and I fear Kane's actual value has finally sunk below his perceived value, making it so he is a good trade candidate. As for Ehlers, you'd be selling low somewhat; however, I'm concerned too about how Winnipeg will fare, although perhaps a new coach will be willing to give Ehlers the PP1 time that's eluded him his entire career. If you want to make an omelet you have to crack a few eggs; and if Ehlers is a necessary add to make this trade happen, I think you do it.

Focusing then on keepers, I agree that you don't need any defensemen, although as with Question #4 that will put you in a drafting hole. Still, I think these three are not worth a keeper spot despite where it might leave you come draft day.

Kucherov, Ovi, and Robertson are locks. I can also get behind Pettersson given how amazing he looked at the end of 2021-22. That leaves three spots for Terry, Tarasenko, Kyrou, Zuccarello, Giroux, Pavelski, and Barzal, or four if Kane is traded. The three grey beards are all tempting, but the only one I'd consider is Giroux, who, as we saw in Florida, still has gas left in the tank and figures to be in the top six and on PP1 in Ottawa. I like Zucc and Pavelski, but they're a little too old and too beholden to their linemates for me to have enough faith to keep them.

I think Barzal will explode on the new look Islanders, as before Barry Trotz entered the equation he'd become just the third forward age 20 or younger to post 85+ points in the past 25 seasons, after Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin. And we all know well what those two have since gone on to achieve. And although it's difficult to keep someone on the basis that one hopes he'll rise back to – or somehow above – previous levels, in the end I'm leaning toward yes on Barzal.

Then there's Kyrou, who, despite what I said in responding to Question #5, likely merits consideration here. Or to put it another way, If Terry is in the conversation, so too is Kyrou. I like Terry for what he's done, where he stands in his career, and being on a team on the rise; yet Kyrou, even if he doesn't get on PP1 and his IPPs drop, should still score in the 70s. Let's not forget Tarasenko, who may have played as well as he did to try and force a trade, which, once it occurs, could see him ease of the gas pedal. Then again, it might just be that he felt reinvigorated enough on a line with Robert Thomas and Pavel Buchnevich so as to stay in St. Louis, where he should be able to do more of the same.

Given the categories, I think the keeps – if Kane is traded – are Tarasenko, Giroux, Barzal and Terry. Kyrou is the tough omission due to the categories. If Kane is not dealt, then I don't keep Kyrou, plus Ehlers or Terry, with Terry having the most limited upside, although if you're concerned about keeping Giroux at his age I could get behind swapping out Giroux for Terry, Ehlers, or, if you feel strongly, even Kyrou.

As for which three I'd retain of DeAngelo, Doughty, Bertuzzi, Kyrou, Zuccarello, Bjorkstrand, and Burakovsky, it wouldn't be DeAngelo, whom I fear will have a feast or famine season, nor Burakovsky, who has never been tasked with being a focal point and may fall short in that role, nor Doughty, who is aging and might focus more on defense with Sean Durzi having shown he's more than capable of running PP1. Of the four left, I think Kyrou and Bertuzzi are locks, and if winning near term is a priority then I'd keep Zuccarello too. Otherwise, although it is true that Bjorkstrand is entering a similar situation as Burakovsky he's had flashes of greatness that show he could be elite, while Burakovsky likely projects to be more solid and steady but unremarkable. Good luck!

Question #7 (from Scott)

I'm in a 14 team Roto league where everyone keeps 5 players, with the only restrictions being that at most one goalie can be kept per team. Rosters are 10F, 4D, 2G, 1 Bench. Stats are G, A, PPPts, SOG, HIT, PIM, +/-, W, GAA, SV%. My projected keepers as of now are Mikko Rantanen, Gabriel Landeskog, Matthew Tkachuk, Brady Tkachuk, and Mitch Marner. I have the chance to trade Marner straight up for Cale Makar? Do I make the trade, even if it means I'll be pretty heavy on Colorado players. Note that in case it matters, the league will reset after this season, with no keepers going into 2023-24.

If you have the chance to trade any player for Cale Makar straight up, you want to say yes, short of perhaps – depending on factors such as who your other keepers are, the positional requirements of the league – for Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Auston Matthews, or Nathan MacKinnon. This applies to any league, whether straight points, kitchen sink, banger, or what have you. Marner, though elite, isn't in the same echelon as Makar, who just keeps getting better and, counting playoffs, only just hit his 200 game breakout threshold; so it stands to reason he'll put up even better numbers, such as what we saw in the 2022 playoffs. Makar is so far above and beyond the next best player at his position that any team should almost always do whatever it takes to get him. Yes, trade Marner, and do it ASAP before the other GM comes to their senses.

As for having three Avs, to me that is a blessing. If, as expected, they continue to dominate offensively, then you not only reap the benefits but also fewer of your fellow GMs do so. If, however, this does concern you, Landeskog is the player I'd move, as players who, like him, have a rough and tumble style, often see their stats nosedive right at or around age 30, which is how old Landy will be come November. Think of Jamie Benn, Milan Lucic, David Backes, Ryan Callahan, Andrew Ladd, Dustin Brown, Wayne Simmonds, Scott Hartnell, Ryan Kesler, James Neal and Kyle Palmieri. Each – like Landeskog – finished within the top 100 in hits among forwards for the prior decade and saw a pronounced scoring drop off by or around age 30. Landy could be an exception; but if you want to offload an Av, he's who I'd trade given this concern. With a league reset looming though, I'd probably hold Landy and hope. Good luck!

Question #8 (from Dave)

I'm in a keep 7 league (max 5 forwards) with skater scoring categories of 4 points for each goal, 2 for each assist, 1 for each PPPt, and 0.5 for each of a Hit, Block and for each point of +/-. Starting line-ups are 3C, 4W, 4D and 1 G. I'm planning to keep Brady Tkachuk, David Pastrnak, Mika Zibanejad, Quinn Hughes and Shea Theodore, with the last two keepers to be chosen from Nick Suzuki, Timo Meier, and Andrei Svechnikov.

Right now I'm inclined to keep Suzuki and Svech. Although Meier had the best 2021-22 output among the three, I feel like that was based on an unsustainable hot start. With him being on an older team that does not have a lot of firepower I worry what we saw from him in the second half is similar to what his likely output will be, in contrast to Suzuki and Svech, who both seem to have upside. Note that whomever I don't keep I'll try to trade for picks.

First off, let's look at how everyone under consideration produced last season given the league's scoring system. By my calculations, Tkachuk had 355 points, Pasta had 305, although if he'd played all 82 games and had the same pace his output would've been 347, Zibs had 320, Hughes had 227, Theodore had 214, Suzuki had 245, Svech had 332, and Meier also had 332.

At first, this makes it seem like Suzuki is the clear weak link. And yes, he'll be hurt in +/- by playing for the Canadiens, who figure to continue to struggle as a team in 2022-23 and perhaps beyond; however, Suzuki also had 36 of his 61 points in his final 33 games. Additionally, he had 20 PPPts for a team with only 34 PPG in total. Suzuki figures to be a special player down the road and markedly improved for 2022-23, even factoring in a +/- drag.

The other thing that one has to realize is Hughes is not built for this league, as he's not a hugely plus player and his hits and blocks are well below what nearly any d-man will produce. That's why even in a down year Theodore almost outpointed him. The issue is you either have to retain Hughes or trade him due to the five forward max rule for keepers.

If you were to trade Hughes though, who would be the forward you'd add to the package to try and get a truly top d-man, or a goalie, assuming your goalie categories are such that keeping a netminder is a viable plan? That's a toughie. Svech clearly has more trade value than Meier due to hype and playing for the Canes, a team seen as on the rise. I'm not sure how much better, if better, Svech will get though, as he's passed his 200 game breakout threshold and Carolina is stingy with minutes for even its top players, so Svech might not get more ice time to pad his numbers.

If it was me, I'd package Svechnikov and Hughes to try and land a top flight defenseman, like Adam Fox, who, although he doesn't hit much, does block shots, and is very solid in PPPts, +/-, and of course the other offensive categories. Or if you don't mind the age issue, a great target would be Victor Hedman, who is superb across the board and probably will be the second highest scoring d-man in the league in this format, behind only Cale Makar. If you wanted to trade for a goalie, it'd have to be Igor Shesterkin or Andrei Vasilevskiy – you couldn't accept less.

What if you didn't want to make a trade or you couldn't find a taker among your fellow GMs? Then you've got a tough choice on your hands. If you want to try to win in the near term, then Suzuki would be the drop. At his peak, I see him producing as much as any of the other forwards in contention. Meier, I realize, would be tempting to let go; but I like players locked into top line minutes even on weak teams, as someone has to score. Even as he slowed Meier still hit a ton and was strong in the heavily weighted goal category. But if you want to keep Svechnikov over Meier I can get behind that, as Svech won't do worse while Meier won't get much better, if at all. If a trade isn't made, drop Meier and keep Suzuki and Svech. Good luck!

Question #9 (from Richard)

I'm in a 12-team, keep 15 (2 goalies max), H2Hd league with the following categories: Skaters – G, A, PPP, SHP, Hits, PIM, and +/-; Goalies – W, SO, SV%. There are daily starts for 3LW, 3C, 3RW, 3D, 1Util, and 2G. Having won the playoffs last season (against all odds) I have the 12th, 22nd, 24th, 36th, and 46th overall picks in the upcoming draft.

I was very confident with keeping all of the following players, that is until Yahoo updated its player position eligibilities this summer. Now, as you can see, I find myself overloaded at one position (LW) and lacking in another (RW).

LW Eligibility – Brady Tkachuk, Andrei Svechnikov, Tim Stutzle, Kirill Kaprizov, Kevin Fiala, Matt Boldy

C Eligibility – Tim Stutzle, Nick Suzuki, Quinton Byfield, Marco Rossi

RW Eligibility – Kevin Fiala, Matt Boldy

D – Cale Makar, Adam Fox, Moritz Seider, Evan Bouchard

G – Igor Shesterkin, Ilya Sorokin

My planned drops would be the following players: Alex Newhook, Bowen Byram, Anton Lundell, Mason McTavish, Cole Caufield

Please note that my team’s build for the future has to focus on prioritizing Hits and PIM. One team in the league has Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, and Auston Matthews, and I’m not planning to compete with them in goals or assists. To win a head-to-head matchup against his team, I’ll need to focus on goalie categories and the peripherals. Of course I’ll still need to get enough goals and assists to beat other teams, but that can't be my chief focus, or so I believe.

My RW coverage was fine before Svechnikov, Kaprizov, and Suzuki all lost their eligibility; but now I’m in a tough spot. Caufield is the only other RW-eligible player I have on my roster, but his lack of hits and PIM make him less valuable to me. To keep my team built for future success, not prioritizing this coming season, while buffering my RW outlook, there are a few approaches I’m considering. Please give me your thoughts on them, plus any added insight.

Option 1 – Drop Bouchard and keep Caufield

I’m expecting Bouchard to take a big step and am hoping to use him (or another D) as a trade-piece mid-year to acquire an early pick for 2023-24. I think Bouchard would be drafted before Caufield with our scoring system and based off trade inquiries last season. Is Caufield’s G, A, and PPPt upside from my needed RW spot worthwhile enough to merit keeping in view of his paltry PIM and hits, and ahead of Bouchard’s potential to break-out this season?

Option 2 – Draft a RW with my 12th overall pick

The wrinkle is there are not many RWs who I project to be draftable and also fit my roster philosophy. Caufield might be the best option, with the likes of Vasily Podkolzin, Jesse Puljujarvi, Kailer Yamamoto, Martin Necas, and Oliver Wahlstrom almost assuredly be available when I pick 12th, as might be Kaapo Kakko and Tanner Jeannot. Do I handcuff myself into taking the best available RW at 12th, or hope that one of these guys will drop to my next pick, which is 22nd overall?

Option 3 – Use one of my LW exclusive players (Kaprizov, Tkachuk, Svechnikov) to trade for another GM's keeper RW that will mature with the rest of my core

I’m specifically thinking of targeting Alexis Lafreniere. The Lafreniere owner is in more of a win-now situation, and one of my LWs would be an improvement on his roster for the coming season over Laffy. For sure this would be a downgrade to my roster for the next year or two. Nevertheless, do you feel Laffy's upside and performance in my league’s scoring categories, and his RW eligibility, will be better in the long-run compared to any of my LW-exclusive Kaprizov, Tkachuk, or Svechnikov (I’m inclined to offer Svechnikov if I had to lose one of those three)?

Option 4 – Trade one of my D for Lafreniere

I'd be open to trading Bouchard for Lafreniere. I could offer my 12th and Bouchard for his 35th and Lafreniere. I think that would greatly improve his short-term and my long-term outlook; but would trading away Fox or Seider in lieu of Bouchard in this situation still be worth it if he inquires?

First off, congrats on the win, and kudos for next level thinking. All too often GMs just focus on their own team and not enough on others. That being said, the GM who has McDavid, Draisaitl and Matthews didn't win last season. As such, their team is beatable, and the GM might realize that they're too top-heavy and trade one of those three to help them in other areas. I wouldn't be as quick as you to tweak your team too much in response. Yes, you want to be playing chess while the others are playing checkers; however, you also don't want to overthink, as doing so can lead you to made some mistakes or not to field what would be your best possible team – that is, you want to avoid analysis paralysis.

Dissecting your options, they boil down to what to do about Caufield, Bouchard, and Lafreniere. Let's start with Laffy. He's played 135 games and scored 30 goals, which sounds quite good. But his collective points per game is under 0.4. Just one other forward has ever played 135+ games, scoring 30+ goals but averaging under 0.4 points per game in his first two seasons by age 20: Guillaume Latendresse. Granted, Latendresse was drafted in the second round, while Laffy was the first overall pick. Still, Latentresse made it to the NHL as a teen and put up early stats strikingly similar to those of Laffy. If you don't remember Latendresse, you can't be blamed, as he was out of the NHL by age 25 having only once topped the point per every other game mark. Although past comparables don't automatically mean similar results, this is not good to see, nor is the fact Laffy has yet to come close to the 70.0% overall IPP that I like to see from players even early in their careers and he's not shooting the puck very much.

I realize it's way too early to declare Laffy a bust; however, his struggles over his first two seasons should make him available in trade for a far cheaper price than you seem to think you should need to pay. So either Laffy's GM should be prepared to accept one of your planned drops, or you should move on, not paying above the proper rate for a player who may still find great success but might also be a dud.

As for Caufield, I think you need to enter the season with him on your team. Of course it'd be all the better if your scorers also hit and got PIM; however, give me the scorer every time, as PIM and Hits can be had via other means. Plus, you seem to suggest that Jeannot could be there at pick 12. I'd keep Caufield and bank on Jeannot at 12th overall and call it a day. If, however, Jeannot isn't there at 12th, then I don't really have a lot of faith in any of the RWs you named as draft targets, such that I wouldn't reach for them at 12, and maybe not even at 22nd, although I suppose if you had to take one of them I'd rank those you named as Pool Party first, Necas second, and Wahlstrom third. No question Jeannot is head and shoulders above all of them, particularly given your desire for banger contributions.

As for your idea to drop Bouchard so you can keep Caufield, I don't like it. I'd put Caufield over Byfield for sure. Caufield is father along, plays wing, and Byfield might never get to where Caufield already is. In fact, if keeping Caufield wasn't necessary, I'd probably tell you to keep at least one of your other listed drops over Byfield.

Not only should you not drop Bouchard, but don't trade him, or Fox or Seider for that matter. Yes, Tyson Barrie is an impediment to Bouchard in that he is signed for two more seasons; however, his ice time dropped to 18:58 per game last season. As I alluded to above, what seems to be unfolding for Barrie kind of reminds me of Keith Yandle's trajectory, where he had a decent season when his ice time was 19:42 per game, but then the floor dropped out, and guess who was there to step up – Aaron Ekblad, just like Bouchard will be for the Oilers. Bouchard's 2021-22 should've been even better, as although he had 12 goals he hit seven combined posts and crossbars, meaning he was inches away from nearly 20 goals. Also, even though Bouchard's Q4 ice time average was 19:01 per game, his second worst of any quarter, he still fired over three SOG per contest and he ended 2021-22 with five points in his last six games, with 20 SOG. He is awakening just as Barrie is seemingly staring to slumber, and you want Bouchard to be on your team to reap the benefits. Don't trade or drop him.

In short, I'm not endorsing any of your options except the second half of Option #1. I'd keep Caufield, drop Byfield, plan to draft Jeannot, and maintain an ironclad grip on Bouchard.

If you're still looking for a trade chip, the player I'd focus on is Marco Rossi, who, if you're a reader of my columns, I've written about several times as someone who I fear is being overhyped. The reality is while small wingers can and do succeed in the NHL, the same cannot be said for small centers. Plus, he won't push Ryan Hartman aside, as that would put Kaprizov with two diminutive players, and that'll never happen. Yes, Rossi's consolation prize is Matt Boldy; but I worry a bit that Boldy's progress might stall without Kevin Fiala, who was on the ice for 27 of Boldy's 29 even strength points last season. Rossi would be the one I trade if I had to trade someone. I'd even be able to get behind trading Rossi for Laffy, if you're so inclined and despite what I said above, although I still might try one of your drops first, most likely Lundell, who I covered in a recent Goldipucks, noting he could disappointingly become Jordan Staal 2.0. Good luck!

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For those reading this now, it's never too early to start providing me with mailbag questions, which you can do in one of two ways: (1) by emailing them to [email protected] with the words "Roos Mailbag" as the subject line, or (2) by sending them to me via a private message on the DobberHockey Forums, where my username is "rizzeedizzee".

When sending me your questions, remember to provide as much detail about your league/situation as possible. Examples of things I need to know include what type of league you're in (i.e., limited keeper, dynasty, or one-year; roto vs. H2H; auction – if so, what the budget is – or non-auction), how many teams are in the league, does the salary cap matter, how many players are rostered (and of those, how many start at each position as well as how many bench and/or IR spots there are), what categories are scored and how are they weighted, plus other details if pertinent. If your question involves whether to pick up or drop a player, give me a list of top free agents available and let me know if the number of pick-ups is limited or if there is a priority system for pick-ups. If you're thinking of making a trade, it would be good to know not only the roster of the other team you might trade with but also where you stand in your categories. If your question involves keepers, in addition to giving me the options for who to keep, let me know if offseason trading is allowed and to what extent it is a viable option given your league. In sum, the key is to tell me enough for me to give you a truly proper answer, and for readers of this column to benefit from the answer/advice I provide. When in doubt, it's best to err on the side of inclusion since I can always omit or disregard things that don't matter.