Boston continued their hot start and extended their home-win record last night with a win over the Lightning. Taylor Hall scored twice in the game, which was actually a surprise for me to see because he has been down on the third line for the past few games (and is only on the second power play unit). In spite of that, his scoring has been about at his season pace thus far, and he seems to be shooting more as well. Hall peaked in New Jersey when he had to carry more of the offence. Perhaps he just needs the puck to flow through him a bit more. Keep a eye on how he manages the next few games. This "demotion" to the third line could not end up being a bad thing after all.

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One of my league-mates was lamenting Peyton Krebs' lack of progression this year, so I ended up diving down a bit of a rabbit hole. Krebs was a favourite of mine in his draft year. I think I had him sixth on my board from that class (though I had Matthew Boldy out of the top 15, so don't get the idea I'm anywhere close to perfect with this scouting thing). I think Krebs' issue this year is that he still needs more gradual development, but the team around him suddenly had more competition. He’s down two-and-a-half minutes of ice time per game, and had his power play time halved. His most frequent linemates are Kyle Okposo, Zemgus Girgensens, and Rasmus Asplund. Last year he most frequently played alongside Vinny Hinostroza, Dylan Cozens, and Victor Olofsson. Just a slight drop.

Krebs' underlying numbers for xGF/60 & xGA/60 are improving, so individually he’s playing a little better than last year, it’s just that he has less opportunity and the linemates are worse. At this point he just hasn’t taken that step to be able to thrive in spite of lesser linemates yet.

It was also pointed out by a few of my league-mates that he has been playing more centre than wing, and that can add some difficulties to young players adjusting to the league. He is also possibly just not quite as explosive as he once was, having dealt with and recovered from a torn Achilles. Hockey players seem to take a while to recover that explosiveness following that kind of injury, though it isn't a sport where we see a lot of it – more so in football and basketball where we definitely see a loss in explosiveness, at least in the short term.

Erik Karlsson is a prime example of a player that didn't look like himself for a few years following that kind of injury, and it's possible that Krebs is still a year or two away from being 100%. We don't really have any way to know.

On that note, maybe it's good to be cautious about the returns of Max Pacioretty and Anthony Duclair, who are also working their way back from Achilles injuries.

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Matthew Tkachuk made his return to Calgary, but Jonathan Huberdeau made a bigger impact in the game, scoring a power play goal. With that, Huberdeau has points in back to back games, though over half of his points so far have come with the man advantage. He needs to pick things up at even strength if he has a chance at hitting the point-per-game (or better) mark again. He was back up with Tyler Toffoli and Elias Lindholm on the top line last night, and that's his best shot at getting things going again.

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The Dallas Stars locked up another key player in Roope Hintz, signing him to an eight-year extension with an $8.45 million AAV – the same as teammate Miro Heiskanen. It's a very fair deal for the Stars at the moment – I had him projected at $8.2M for an extension – and with the cap set to go up this is the kind of contract that likely won't even look bad six years down the line. It really helps to have your top players take less, because the trickle-down effect then keeps everyone else's money in line.

This should give Dallas enough room and enough cost certainty to keep Joe Pavelski around past this season (assuming he wants to keep playing) which is good news for his value and for his teammates.  

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Out in Vancouver, Nils Hoglander has been riding shotgun alongside Bo Horvat and J.T. Miller the last few games. He has been in the coach's doghouse for a while now, but this is a complete 180, and Hoglander needs to make the most of it if he is going to outlast Bruce Boudreau in Vancouver. He scored last night, which is a good start.

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The Kings called up Samuel Fagemo and Jordan Spence yesterday. They probably won't be around long, but they're both worth keeping an extra close eye on in fantasy leagues as we see that they have the edge for possible future call-ups, and maybe for a permanent lineup spot next season, though the lineup is extremely crowded.

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It's been on my mind lately to take a quick look at the top scorers from a few previous seasons, and to compare those to today with the idea of feeling out how the top of the league's scoring changes over time. I arbitrarily picked to look at the league in three year intervals, and to list out the top 12 scorers in those years. This year's numbers are based on an 82-game pace, so they may be a little high.

NHL Scoring Leaderboard
2016-17		2019-20		2022-23
Player	Points	Player	Points	Player	Pace*
Connor McDavid	100	Leon Draisaitl	110	Connor McDavid	145
Sidney Crosby	89	Connor McDavid	97	Nikita Kucherov	133
Patrick Kane	89	Artemi Panarin	95	Jason Robertson	128
Nicklas Backstrom	86	David Pastrnak	95	David Pastrnak	125
Nikita Kucherov	85	Nathan MacKinnon	93	Mikko Rantanen	125
Brad Marchand	85	Brad Marchand	87	Leon Draisaitl	123
Mark Scheifele	82	Nikita Kucherov	85	Nathan MacKinnon	121
Leon Draisaitl	77	Patrick Kane	84	Matthew Tkachuk	116
Brent Burns	76	Auston Matthews	80	Erik Karlsson	109
Vladimir Tarasenko	75	Jack Eichel	78	Sidney Crosby	108
Blake Wheeler	74	Jonathan Huberdeau	78	Kirill Kaprizov	105
Artemi Panarin	74	Mika Zibanejad	75	Tage Thompson	104

There is a little less carry over in these three-year segments than you might expect. Only six names make it from the top-12 in 2016-17 to the top-12 in 2019-20, and then five from 2019-20 to 2022-23. Granted, this year's season isn't over, and if there weren't injuries to a few names like Sidney Crosby, Jack Eichel, and Brad Marchand, we may see a bit more crossover. Still, even eight names carried over means that in three short years, there is a third of the top-12 that's new. Then, knowing which of the names are going to stick, and which might drop off in any given year provides the challenge (or the fun, depending on how you look at it).

What that means though, is from this list of 12 that we have from 2022-23, at most eight of them, but more likely only around six names, will find themselves on the 2025-26 list. Let's sort out who might drop out.

Erik Karlsson is probably the easiest name to discount, and though he can put up points with the best of them, he's on the wrong side of 30, is riding some incredible percentages, and has a long injury history. Defencemen also fluctuate a little more than forwards year to year, so it should be safe to knock him off the list.

Next, we take off number 12 on the list in Tage Thompson. He's a fine player, and is coming into his own, but his shooting percentage is still too high, and he just doesn't have the same elite upside as the rest of the list.

Sidney Crosby is one of those elite level guys, but he will be 38 entering the 2025-26 season, and we just can't bank on him putting up 90+ points at that point.

The last name I'm going to cut is actually second on the list above, and that's Nikita Kucherov. He's one of the older players on the list, has had recent hip surgery, and has a ton of miles on him after three long playoff runs in the last three seasons. He may still be an elite player in three years, but like Crosby I just can't bank on his scoring to stick about 100 points for that long.

That brings us to the lists below, with some projections for what the top-12 might look like in three and six years respectively, with this year's rate stats on the left now for reference.

NHL Scoring Leaderboard
2022-23		2025-26		2028-29
Player	Pace*	Player	Points	Player	Points
Connor McDavid	145	Connor McDavid	130	Connor Bedard	136
Nikita Kucherov	133	Jason Robertson	120	Jack Hughes	125
Jason Robertson	128	Leon Draisaitl	119	Connor McDavid	122
David Pastrnak	125	Kirill Kaprizov	110	Jason Robertson	115
Mikko Rantanen	125	David Pastrnak	106	Matvei Michkov	111
Leon Draisaitl	123	Nathan MacKinnon	102	Adam Fantilli	104
Nathan MacKinnon	121	Mikko Rantanen	100	Leon Draisaitl	103
Matthew Tkachuk	116	Mitch Marner	99	Mikko Rantanen	99
Erik Karlsson	109	Connor Bedard	99	Mitch Marner	97
Sidney Crosby	108	Jack Hughes	97	Kirill Kaprizov	97
Kirill Kaprizov	105	Matthew Tkachuk	96	Quinton Byfield	95
Tage Thompson	104	Elias Pettersson	94	Wyatt Johnston	92

There isn't anything too drastic in 2025-26. Connor Bedard is in his third year in the league, and is really taking off by that point. Current youngsters are now closer to 30 than to 20, and are hitting their scoring peak (if they haven't already passed it). Pastrnak is falling off without Patrice Bergeron, David Krejci, and Brad Marchand around, while Matthew Tkachuk is still an excellent player but he won't hit 100 points every year, especially considering his style of play.

In 2028-29 things get really interesting. The younger set from this year like Hughes and Robertson are still thriving, while a few of the other staples have dropped off. The 2023 draft is showing that it rivals 2003 and 2015, both with the top-end and with the depth. Matvei Michkov is playing in his "rookie" season, and thrives just like Kaprizov did when he came over. At the bottom of the list we have a few wildcards who developed well over the years, and have both excellent skill and supporting cast.

Hopefully that little exercise was insightful in how things could (will) change over the next few years. It's easy to get caught up in the present in our dynasty leagues and in making picks at the draft table next summer, but time keeps ticking forward while we only have stats from the past to look at.

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You can find me on Twitter @alexdmaclean if you have any fantasy hockey questions or comments.

See you next Wednesday!