I put out my initial list of the 2023 free agency salary projections late last week, and while I publish it with a small ramble to lead into it, I wanted to talk about a few more players here.

If you need any details on what I do or how the numbers come to be, the link above should have enough details for you. If not, then feel free to shoot me a message on Twitter @alexdmaclean and I'll be happy to elaborate where I can.

The top of the list is interesting in that David Pastrnak is in such a great situation that it would be hard to leave, but if Boston gets beat out on the money end of things that could be all he needs. He's one of the top goal scorers in the league and it's going to be an eight-digit AAV needed to lock him up.

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John Klingberg really seems to have overplayed his hand. I can't help but compare him to Taylor Hall in their free agency escapades, where they both likely had plenty of suitors on long term deals when they initially hit the market, they ended up taking one-year deals, and then disappointed in that one year show-me situation. In Hall's case, he was traded to Boston at the deadline, and signed a long and reasonable extension there. For Klingberg, that's his best-case scenario, because if he's not traded, or if the team that trades for him is disappointed by what they get out of the final 15 games of him, then he may come in well below the $6.5 million I have projected. It would be best for his fantasy value too if he could get traded soon and find a groove there. The two go hand-in-hand.

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Dylan Larkin rounds out the top-three, and could also be on the move. He may very well re-sign, but if he was going to then you would think it would have been done by now. Trading him by the deadline is a possibility, or this could be a situation similar to Steven Stamkos in Tampa, coincidentally also negotiated by GM Steve Yzerman. I have him projected for a cap hit around $8.4 million, though it will likely be a little higher, especially if he hits the open market. He may not get $10 million, but Barzal's $9.15 million extension would be a good comparable.

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Troy Terry and Cole Caufield also come in a little low, as their upsides are so high that the teams know they have to lock them in now. They're still young though, so my numbers are a little more conservative with the projections, but at this time, the starting line for negotiations with Zegras or Caufield is the $7 million AAV that Dylan Cozens and Matt Boldy just signed.

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There isn't really a top defenceman in the 2023 free agency crop, as Klingberg has seen his effectiveness wane of late, and none of the others a sure-fire top-pairing guys, especially on a playoff team. There is lots to like about players such as Vince Dunn (RFA), Damon Severson, Ryan Graves, and Travis Sanheim, and they could fill a top-four hole on a good team, similar to the stabilizing impact T.J. Brodie has had in Toronto over the last couple years. Unsurprisingly, all of those players are projected for similar cap hits to what T.J. Brodie signed – $5 million. It's a fair price for what these players bring, but aside from Dunn it makes them expendable in most cap leagues.

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It sounds as though both Cam Talbot and Anthony Duclair may both be back Friday. For Duclair, it could be his season debut. For Cam Talbot, it's an audition as an uncontested starter on a playoff bubble team. With Talbot being a pending free agent, the 35-year-old can still be a solid presence in net, but his declining numbers the last three seasons show he isn't the goalie that he once was. He's projected for a $3.75 million cap hit, which would fall in line with what Mark-Andre Fleury got as a 37-year-old, and is similar to his expiring contract.

It might be a bit high, but on a shorter term, Talbot should still be able to find someone willing to sign him to a $3 million cap hit. In the meantime, the Senators are playing well, and Talbot should be a fantasy-relevant goalie in any league type down the stretch.

Side note, does anyone else completely not remember Talbot playing for the Flames or the Flyers in the last five years? I have zero recollection of it.

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This is what I had on Ryan O'Reilly before last night's game started:

Sheldon Keefe on what he told John Tavares before moving him to the wing: "It's not a one-off. We're gonna stay with it here."

— Joshua Kloke (@joshuakloke) February 21, 2023

This is a great spot for Ryan O'Reilly to rebuild his value, and it helps Tavares as well. In a matchup against Tampa in the first round though, I could see Toronto lengthening the lineup with ROR on the third line for away games to cover off matchups a lot better without last change. Keep an eye on the home/away matchups and deployment.  

All ROR did was go out and score two goals less than five minutes into the game. He capped off the hat-trick with an empty netter, and added an assist on the team's third goal.

He has finished with at least a 60-point pace for most of the last decade, and every season since 2016. He may not get there this year, but if he's playing the rest of the year on a line with John Tavares and Mitch Marner then he's going to be able to get there blindfolded. The five shots last night (obviously also padded with the empty net goal) are a great sign as well.

Casual five-point night for Mitch Marner as well putting him back up on a 100-point-pace.

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Sources: #stlblues have entered the chat for #sjsharks Timo Meier.

St. Louis, while also attempting reshape its defense corps, is looking to leverage the picks they've acquired from O'Reilly and Tarasenko trades.https://t.co/8pjQIaOQOb

— Frank Seravalli (@frank_seravalli) February 21, 2023

After shipping off ROR, it doesn't sound as though the Blues are looking at letting the pick stew through a long rebuild. The core of their team is young, and they have a few good players that are nearing their NHL debuts as well. This may be the low point of the value of some of the Blues, so if you can figure out who is sticking around in a fantasy-relevant role, then they may be a decent buy-low option.

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Ryan Hartman got another turn as Minnesota's top-line centre, and scored two goals. The Wild need a spark, and if he can stick with the top wingers then last season's 65-point-pace and three shots per game could be what his last-third of the season looks like.

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There were a couple of young defencemen that I wanted to highlight. Nick Perbix had a great night picking up three assists. He has a lot of competition for points on the Tampa blue line, but they also have some depth scoring up front so he is able to keep himself fantasy-relevant in deeper leagues.

The more attractive option though is Sean Durzi. He's already more than a 40-point defenceman, and can become the main power play guy for an LA team that has a younger set of players ready to take over as the core. He also puts up a better set of peripherals than Perbix.

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One of my favourite young players, Philip Tomasino, was given the short end of the stick and sent back down to the AHL after sticking for most of last season. He looks to be back now, and potted his first of the season last night. There are likely going to be a lot of ups and downs, especially with the Predators and how the team seems to be stuck in the middle. There may not be a lot of production straightaway, but in a few short years he should rise quickly.

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Three points each for Andrei Svechnikov and Seth Jarvis. Jarvis is finally getting up to speed with Sebastian Aho and Svechnikov, and the three of them are clicking. Carolina on the whole may be the team to beat after Boston out of the East. Svechnikov is back to his usual point-pace in the low-70s, while Jarvis now has nine points in his last seven games, taking more shots along the way. His power plat time is down, but most of his production comes at even strength anyways.

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Avalanche goalie Alexandar Georgiev missed practice today due to "dental work". With Pavel Francouz on the shelf for a few weeks as well, regardless of we may see a few appearances from Justus Annunen over the next couple weeks. He's a top-62 goalie based on the latest rankings over on GoaliePost. Playing behind the Avalanche is a good spot for any goalie, even with all of the injuries they have dealt with all year.

Connor Ingram may be the better short-term option, but this time of year some of us need all the help we can get when looking at goalies.

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See you next Wednesday. In the meantime, you can find me on Twitter @alexdmaclean if you have any fantasy hockey questions or comments.