Ramblings: Insight on Cozens, Horvat, Beniers, Novak, and more … (Feb. 27)
Dobber
2023-02-27
After a brief (very brief) run of slowed offense, the Sabres appear to be back in business with seven goals on Sunday. That gives them 16 in three games, and moves them back into second in the entire league for offense. Take note, daily fantasy players!
Dylan Cozens was an absolute monster. His four points and nine SOG were both career highs, and this comes on the heels of a three-game pointless drought. Add in 11 faceoff wins and four PIM and fantasy owners were certainly pleased. The Sabres patched together a line of Cozens, Casey Mittelstadt and our old friend Vinnie Hinostroza and it just clicked.
Hinostroza got back into the lineup after a couple of healthy scratches. He even spent a bit of time in the minors. He has played often with Cozens, and he's played often with Mittelstadt…but I don't think I've seen him play with both before. It's a line to watch, as the trio combined for eight points.
Rookie Jack Quinn has moved up to the top line alongside Tage Thompson and Jeff Skinner. He's picked up six points in his last six games, including a pair of assists on Sunday. All of these line adjustments have been working, so it's fairly safe to expect them to continue for a little while yet. With Alex Tuch out for weeks, Quinn certainly has a good hold on that sweet spot.
Also Quinn on Sunday:
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Washington line combos with Craig Smith on the team:
Time | % | EV – FORWARDS | GF | GA | +/- | SF | SA | SF% | CF | CA | CF% |
11:47 | 21.9 | KUZNETSOV – WILSON – OVECHKIN | 1 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 10 | 44.4 | 15 | 15 | 50.0 |
11:35 | 21.5 | OSHIE – MILANO – STROME | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 10 | 33.3 | 8 | 11 | 42.1 |
10:09 | 18.9 | BACKSTROM – SMITH – SHEARY | 0 | 1 | -1 | 3 | 3 | 50.0 | 11 | 6 | 64.7 |
9:16 | 17.2 | ELLER – DOWD – AUBE-KUBEL | 0 | 1 | -1 | 6 | 2 | 75.0 | 7 | 4 | 63.6 |
The Caps lost the game badly, but the bottom two lines did well in driving the play.
Dylan Strome, whose line was outshot and out-chanced, still managed two points. He has been struggling since Nicklas Backstrom returned January 8, with just five points in 16 games. But he has three in his last two, so maybe he's coming out of it. Playing with TJ Oshie has certainly helped (Oshie has six points in his last three).
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Kirill Kaprizov is on fire right now, and his hat trick Sunday was of the 'natural' variety, with the third one coming in overtime. It gives him 19 points in his last 16 games, and it's easy to believe that his run of late has been sparked by Ryan Hartman moving back to his line. The line sure dominated Sunday, creating 32 shot attempts (!) while giving up only 17.
Meanwhile, his linemate for much of the season – Sam Steel – was made a healthy scratch. Again. Steel was pointless in 11 games before getting scratched for the last six. He turned 25 three weeks ago, and it's hard to image he will see a golden opportunity like the one he had in November and December ever again. Especially one that was so prolonged.
Marc-Andre Fleury has posted back-to-back Quality Starts. Against Columbus. Filip Gustavsson takes on offensive juggernauts Toronto and Los Angeles – and does fantastic. I'm starting to think Gus is taking this No.1 job. At worst, he'll take over in the playoffs (if they make it) and run with it at that point. But it could be much sooner than that.
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No Mat Barzal, no problem? Maybe? The Islanders won 4-0 and outshot the Jets 24-22, but…they blocked 25 Winnipeg shots. The Jets blocked just nine from the Islanders. To compare – Washington versus Buffalo saw a 10-8 score for BLKS favoring the Caps. The Islanders blocked 25! So when you see the breakdown of the line combos, you're bound to see this:
Time | % | EV – FORWARDS | GF | GA | +/- | SF | SA | SF% | CF | CA | CF% |
10:42 | 20.6 | CIZIKAS – MARTIN – FASCHING | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 66.7 | 9 | 10 | 47.4 |
10:13 | 19.6 | LEE – HORVAT – HOLMSTROM | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 50.0 | 10 | 14 | 41.7 |
9:49 | 18.9 | PARISE – PALMIERI – NELSON | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 22.2 | 3 | 18 | 14.3 |
6:39 | 12.8 | BAILEY – KOIVULA – DURANDEAU | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 60.0 | 5 | 7 | 41.7 |
Each line was dominated by the Jets at even strength. That CF% is really telling, and winning does not seem like it will be sustainable if they keep playing like that.
Interesting to see prospect Simon Holmstrom on that top line. He's a first-round pick (23rd overall in 2019), but has not translated the offense he showed in Sweden prior to being drafted, to the North American pro game. He's only 21 and definitely needs more AHL time. His possession metrics indicate that he is struggling there as well.
Bo Horvat had three BLKS and he has 13 in 11 games with the Islanders (1.18/game). With the Canucks he had 30 in 49 (0.61/game). His production may be down, but he's definitely helping in that category for those leagues that care about BLKS.
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Kyle Connor was minus-4 on Sunday and is minus-9 in the last six games (five points). You have to think having Sam Gagner on his line these days plays a big role in that. The repercussions of the Cole Perfetti injury – domino effect.
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Los Angeles fans, at least on Twitter, are gaga over Pheonix Copley despite the fact that he's had a sub-0.900 SV% in his last 15 appearances. But the Kings are seeing what I'm seeing – that Copley is not the answer. Just one minimally impressive Quality Start from Jonathan Quick and he's given the start again in the very next game. But he gave up three goals on seven shots and got yanked. Copley went in and gave up two on 14 (0.857 SV%). The Kings are probably looking for goaltending help and I wonder what the Coyotes are asking for Karel Vejmelka? Whatever it is, the Kings should pay it.
In his last 16 appearances, Copley's SV% is 0.897.
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K'Andre Miller was kicked out of the game for this incident:
If it is determined that he did, indeed, spit at Drew Doughty on purpose, he is probably looking at a three-game suspension.
Without Miller, I suspect Jacob Trouba will struggle to put points on the board. He'll have to 'babysit' (i.e. play safe) his new partner, who will be nowhere near the talent level that Miller is at.
The Mika Zibanejad line (with Chris Kreider and Vladimir Tarasenko) gave up 15 shot attempts while creating zero of their own at even strength. I'm going to go out on a limb and say that's not very good. Can we expect the lines to shuffle? Tarasenko's most effective linemates were Vincent Trocheck and Artemi Panarin.
Trocheck had three points and now has 11 in his last nine games. He is still playing with Panarin, but Barclay Goodrow was the other linemate.
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Speaking of Goodrow, a few years ago the Lightning acquired Goodrow at the trade deadline. Sunday night they overpaid huge to land a similar player in Tanner Jeannot (analysis of this trade forthcoming, if it's not up already as you read this). Look for Jeannot to jump straight onto the third line along side Nick Paul and Ross Colton. It upgrades the offense on that line as well as the hard-hitting style, so I suspect it helps all three players. This bumps Patrick Maroon to the fourth line with Corey Perry and P-E Bellemare, and knocks Vladislav Namestnikov (or Perry) out of the lineup altogether.
Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin had two points each on Sunday as the Penguins hammered the Lightning 7-3. Crosby has 22 points in his last 16 games. He still has a very real shot at breaking 100 points for the first time in four years and the fifth time in his career.
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The Seattle Kraken have been given up a ton of goals all season long, but their offense was compensating for it. But the offense seems to have dried up somewhat. They've scored 31 goals in the last 12 games, or 2.58 per game. Before that, they were scoring 3.66 per contest in 47 games. That's a drop of more than a goal per game over a significant span.
I always have some concerns over young college players who are off to hot starts as rookies. Matty Beniers is used to a short college schedule. He's already played more games this season than any other in his career. His points per game in the first 21 games was 0.86. His pts/gp in the next 26 games was 0.69. His pts/gp in the last 10 is 0.60. He did have six points in four games heading into the Toronto contest, but the Leafs shut him down.
Interesting thing I noticed, when looking at Beniers. In seven of the last eight games where he picked up a point – he picked up two.
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If you haven't noticed Tommy Novak yet – take a look at him. Go ahead, click on his name. A must-own right now. Three points on Sunday gives him 11 in five games. He's up to 22 in 26 on the year. He's 25 years old and has been waiting a long time for a real NHL shot. His AHL never were never extraordinary until 2020-21 when he started becoming a point-per-game player at that level. Now that he's playing with Matt Duchene and Mikael Granlund, he's really taking off. With Filip Forsberg and Ryan Johansen sidelined, Novak is really making his mark. But the true test of the sustainability of Novak's spot in the lineup (and PP time) will happen when Forsberg returns. He's primarily a setup man, and needs to be alongside snipers, and Forsberg would probably take Duchene and Granlund away from him. Forsberg is still day-to-day, but has missed eight games now.
With the Preds getting rid of El Nino, Philip Tomasino has been flying. He has four points in his last three games. He's playing with Cody Glass and Zach Sanford.
Roman Josi has 18 points in his last 12 games and has quietly moved into a tie for sixth place among defensemen.
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See you next Monday.