I've been down and out with covid the last few days, so I haven't had the time or energy to dive in or research anything foundational. It also means I haven't been catching any of the late games recently. Regardless, I'm going to give a couple thoughts I have on each series so far.

Leafs / Lightning

My initial pick: Leafs in five

This didn't look like one that I was going to get right early on, but after Monday night's OT thriller, the Leafs have a commanding lead – yes I know that we have heard that before and no I'm still not confident they pull this one out.

One reason I bet against the lightning here was that in this day and age no team is good every year, and this seemed like one that the Lightning were primed for a bit of a letdown after cup final appearances in the last three seasons. The forward core is close to as deep as it has been, the defence group is a little weaker (and then has some injuries lumped on top), but the goaltending was what really worried me here. Andrei Vasilevskiy has played a ton of heavy minutes, and has not had a reliable backup in the regular season for years now either. That needs to be a high priority for the Lightning in the offseason, as Vas' weaknesses are starting to be exploited, and they need another option to spell their starter on occasion. That backup could have some inflated value next season starting 30+ games when most may be expecting 20-max out of him.

On the Leafs' side of things:

No decision on what to do with lineup with Michael Bunting eligible to return from suspension, Sheldon Keefe says

However the Leafs coach makes it clear, Matthew Knies is NOT coming out of the lineup@TSN_Edge

— Mark Masters (@markhmasters) April 25, 2023

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Rangers / Devils

My initial pick: Rangers in six

Four games in and this certainly has the look of a series that's going the distance, though strangely it's the away team that has won each game. I'm not sure what that says about the matchup gaming of each of the coaches, but smarter people than me can figure that out and probably tell you it's not something positive.

After game two, it looked like the Rangers were going to be able to walk through the series, and they hadn't even had to have Igor Shesterkin steal a game yet. Well, we're through four games now and he still hasn't but his counterpart on the other end of the rink certainly has. Akira Schmid is someone that came out of nowhere to many.

I own him on two of my fantasy dynasty teams, as he has been brought up on the forums and in the Ramblings more than once over the last year or so. He's earning himself the backup role next year, and planting the seed in Lindy Ruff's mind that he could even be a platoon starter option with the incumbent Vitek Vanecek who also has the contract advantage. That all being said, I am a big believer in Vanecek, so don’t go selling his shares too soon.

As someone put it in a thread on the forums, if someone came to me offering Devon Levi or Dustin Wolf for my Schmid, I would be tripping over myself to hit accept. Schmid is good, but Vanecek is the starter, and even his eventual peak will not likely end up reaching that of the other top NHL-ready goalie prospects at the moment.

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Bruins / Panthers

My initial pick: Bruins in five

The Bruins being up in the series despite missing David Krejci and Patrice Bergeron in various games speaks to both their depth up front, and their systems overall. This is the team to beat in the East, but the Panthers are at least doing their part to show the Bruins aren't invincible.

My eventual picks had the Rangers winning the East, which means I didn't have to give too much thought to who I thought might win the Atlantic. As of right now, with Bergeron back skating at practice on a regular line, it appears he is close to returning. David Krejci is apparently also a possibility for game six if it gets that far. Then with both likely back for the start of round two, it would be difficult to see the Leafs (or the Lightning) winning four of seven games against them right now.

On the Panthers' end, hopefully we get full and healthy seasons from Aaron Ekblad, Sam Bennett, and Anthony Duclair next year. They aren't the superstars on the team, but they are key pillars that the group really struggled to fill in for. This is a playoff team next year as well, regardless of who the starting goalie ends up being.

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Hurricanes / Islanders

My initial pick: Islanders in six

My initial lean here was the Isles because of Ilya Sorokin, a healthy Mat Barzal & Bo Horvat combo, and the injuries the Canes are dealing with up front. Well Sorokin has been fantastic – even including his game-four clunker – Barzal and Horvat only have two points apiece through five games, while Sebastian Aho, Brent Burns and Stefan Noesen have done enough to keep the offence afloat in Carolina. Antti Raanta's spectacular play has also been a key difference maker in the series.

With the Isles taking game-five though, they head home for game six, and I still think they take this series overall, just in one more game than I initially projected. We'll call that the Antti-factor.

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Wild / Stars

My initial pick: Stars in five

An interesting stat I came across on Twitter the other day but can't find anymore mentioned how Kirill Kaprizov has seen his scoring dry up in the last two playoff series he has played against Pete DeBoer coached teams (four points in 12 games), while the series he played not against a DeBoer team he notched eight points (seven of them goals) in six games. He is also at his regular-season breakout threshold, but I think we can discount him showing up with an other-worldly performance next year because the breakout happened in year-two on a shortened timeline because of all the pro games he racked up in Russia.

Marcus Foligno was given a five-minute major and a game misconduct for his knee-on-knee hit against Radek Faksa in the first period. Faksa left the game but returned later that period. Foligno seems to have the eye of the officials right now, and not in a good way. We'll see if that carries over to next season as well.

Dallas was only able to score once on the power play, but did take advantage of the subsequent special-teams battle. Though the Stars are visibly missing Joe Pavelski in all facets of the game, they look like they should still be able to get past the Wild.

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Oilers / Kings

My initial pick: Oilers in five

The Oilers were the favourites here and the pick of many to make it out of the West. With the return of Kevin Fiala though, the Kings look every bit the part of the kind of team that can knock them off, with a hot goalie, a mobile defence core, and some responsible two-way threats up front.

Leon Draisaitl is again upping his production in the playoffs. It probably helps to have your opponents heavily game-plan for the other superstar on your team. His 17 shots are second only to Connor McDavid. Noteworthy as well is Evan Bouchard and his seven points (six on the power play) to go along with 13 shots through four games. He's going to be worth every penny in drafts in the fall.

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Golden Knights / Jets

My initial pick: Golden Knights in four

In projecting this series, I definitely discounted the difference that the goaltending would make early on, but I stand by the assessment that the Golden Knights were going to find a way to win four games here regardless of the style of games. With a few injuries to Jets players things have really tilted in the Golden Knights' favour.

I saw them as the favourites in large part because of the depth of their skater core, but it's the top-end guys really pulling through at the moment. Jack Eichel, Chandler Stephenson, William Karlsson, and Mark Stone (he of questionable health) are each at or above a point-per-game thus far. Alex Pietrangelo and Shea Theodore have also combined for seven points in the first four games.

Laurent Brossoit carrying the crease is a surprise, as I would have expected at least one start from Jonathan Quick by now. At this point though it seems like they are going to live or die with Brossoit. The offseason goalie carousel is going to be fascinating in Vegas, with three UFAs (Quick, Brossoit, and Adin Hill) to go along with rookie sensation Logan Thompson, and the rehabbing Robin Lehner – forgot about him, didn't you?

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Kraken / Avalanche

My initial pick: Kraken in seven

My feeling here was that the Lightning teams of the last few years have allowed us to forget about the "Stanley Cup hangover" that was such a prevalent phrase (rightly so) in the 2010s. Teams just weren't able to muster long runs to the finals in back to back years, and often finalists ended up missing the playoffs or bowing out in the first round. This Avalanche team has some dominant top-tier talent, but they don't quite have the depth of last year's championship squad, especially without the reinforcements of Gabe Landeskog.

Seattle has also been underrated all year, and now they have the revenge arc of Phillipp Grubauer to play off of, helping them at least pull off the first-round upset. Justin Schultz is actually leading the team in points thus far with five through the first four games. He continues his solid season, though he tends to follow up good seasons with poor ones, so he's definitely not someone to reach for on draft day.

Cale Makar is now suspended for game five after his late hit on Jared McCann, and it sounds like McCann is going to be out much longer than one game. Makar's suspension should have been longer, his major should have been upheld in game four, and overall this hurts Seattle more because games six and seven are where they will really need McCann.

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See you next Wednesday. In the meantime, you can find me on Twitter @alexdmaclean if you have any fantasy hockey questions or comments.