One of the more surprising turns of the early portions of the 2023 offseason was seeing the Nashville Predators buy out the contract of Matt Duchene. He wasn't elite in 2022-23, but he's a season removed from pushing scoring 43 goals and posting 86 points. Regardless, he was set to go somewhere else and he's staying in the division, but heading to Texas:

Duchene fell off in 2022-23 but still led Nashville forwards in goals (22) by three and points (56) by 13. It was not a good team but he still showed well.

What Dallas Gets

Duchene's drop was predictable as he, and many other Nashville skaters, all had career years at the same time in 2021-22. The built-in regression plus injuries meant a down year for everyone not named Juuse Saros. He still had solid scoring chance creation numbers at 5-on-5, and provided a balance between shooting and playmaking similar to players like Johnny Gaudreau and Dylan Cozens. It was the same thing the year before, just to a lesser degree because, again, all their vital players had career years in 2021-22.

Heading to Dallas might be one of those situations where it helps the team in real life more than it helps fantasy players. The Stars had one of the top power plays in 2022-23 as the top unit scored 20 more goals (!) in just 25 more minutes together than the New York Rangers' top unit, for example. Unless that power play falls on its face to start the 2023-24 season for one reason or another, there's not much reason to think Duchene will get top PP time. Things can change quickly, but assuming he spends even half the season on the top PP unit feels misguided.

Therein lay the problem: no Dallas forward had more than 50 points last season other than the four members of the top PP unit. Out of Duchene's 56 points last season, only 13 were with the man advantage, which provides a nice barometer for the upcoming campaign. Unless they move him to the premiere power play early in the season, expecting more than 25 goals and 55 points is too lofty. That is why this may be a better real-life move than a fantasy one.

Signing Duchene also provides an impediment to that top PP unit for the forwards not already there. Names like Wyatt Johnston and Evgenii Dadonov just got another obstacle put in front of them in case of injuries to someone like Roope Hintz or Jamie Benn. It probably means Logan Stankoven isn't making the roster in October; assuming Ty Dellandrea is brought back one way or another, the team has 13 NHL forwards signed for 2023-24. Stankoven would have to have a great training camp, combined with an injury or two, to reach the 10-game mark.

It will be interesting to see how Dallas uses their new forward. He has bounced between centre and the wing for a couple years now, and the emergence of Johnston has given them their 2C between he and Benn. Should the team reunite the Benn-Johnston-Dadonov line, it would push Duchene to the third line. A third-line role with secondary PP minutes is really not an enticing prospect, fantasy-wise. It would certainly give Dallas a bottom-6 scoring boost, though, skating with Dellandrea, Tyler Seguin, Craig Smith, and Mason Marchment. It probably relegates guys like Dellandrea, Smith, and Sam Steel to a rotating fourth line.  

Who this helps

Tyler Seguin

Mason Marchment

Who this hurts

Wyatt Johnston

Logan Stankoven

Evgenii Dadonov

Ty Dellandrea

Sam Steel