Ramblings: Dunn Extended, Top 5 Intriguing Goalie Situations in Fantasy (Jul 22)

Ian Gooding

2023-07-22

Vince Dunn was able to turn a contract year into a major payday. The Kraken have signed Dunn to a four-year extension worth $7.35 million, avoiding arbitration. Although the term isn't as lengthy as it could be and even suggests bridge deal, Dunn now has a longer contract term than any other Seattle defenseman, along with holding the highest cap hit on the entire team. The Kraken have to feel fairly confident that Dunn's 64-point season in 2022-23 was no fluke. Prior to that, Dunn had never even reached 40 points in a season, let alone 50 or 60.

You might think a heavy concentration of Dunn's points were on the power play, but in fact only 15 of those points were. In fact, Jared McCann led Seattle with 16 power-play points. That even-strength production might seem like a positive sign that Dunn's career season might be sustainable, but I'd still bet the under on him reaching 60 points in 2023-24. Some of his advanced stats (12.4 5-on-5 SH%, 2.0 PTS/60, 1029 PDO) were slightly higher than expected, according to the Frozen Tools Buy/Sell Meter. The Kraken seem to have been a fiscally responsible team for the most part, but they seem to be rolling the dice a bit here.

Yesterday I listed who I believe are the top 5 goalies in fantasy heading into this season's drafts, and I provided cases for and against them being the top goalie in fantasy hockey entering the season. As you'd expect, most of these goalies are the clear-cut starters on their team (with the exception of one, which I'll get into later).

To contrast, today I'm going to flip it over to listing what I believe are the more interesting goalie situations entering the 2023-24 season. By interesting, I mean both volatile and fantasy-relevant. It could possibly even mean both goalies from these teams could be drafted in many fantasy leagues. These aren't necessarily the five situations most likely to be a timeshare, but instead the early tandems that could be worth watching.

Vegas

This one needed more than just the regular season to play out. By virtue of leading the Golden Knights to the Stanley Cup, Adin Hill was given a two-year contract with a cap hit of $4.9 million. That should be enough to assume he'll be the starter going forward, right? Don't forget about Logan Thompson, who was on his way to being a possible Calder Trophy finalist before a lower-body injury in March sidelined him for the season. Thompson has a much lower cap hit than Hill, but the same two-year term remaining. Hill is most likely the opening-night starter, but Thompson's going to receive plenty of starts as well. Hill doesn't exactly have a large body of work as a starter, as he's never played more than 27 games in a season.

New Jersey

There are two reasons I'd consider this goalie situation unsettled: 1) As the Devils emerge as a legitimate contender in the Eastern Conference, they may decide to upgrade their goaltending via trade, and 2) The possible emergence of Akira Schmid, who played well in limited duty last season. Vitek Vanecek had a solid regular season, but I can't help but wonder the Devils are looking elsewhere after Vanecek posted 3 RBS (really bad starts) in 7 GP in the playoffs. Only one of those three non-RBS games were full games, and he still allowed four goals in that game. 

Los Angeles

The Kings appear to be a playoff team again, but they've planned very short term with their goaltending after Cal Petersen fizzled and Jonathan Quick aged out. Cam Talbot appears to be the starter here, but he's now 36 and injuries seem to be catching up. Pheonix Copley is back for another season after being called up when Petersen was surprisingly sent to the AHL, and he could push Talbot for starts and handle the volume if Talbot is injured. David Rittich shouldn't be considered a legitimate NHL starter, but he's also been signed to provide goaltending depth. Don't be surprised if this is a Talbot/Copley timeshare, with Rittich starting the season in the AHL.

Edmonton

The Jack Campbell experiment isn't going well for the Oilers, and they still have him on the books for four more years with a $5 million cap hit. Even if Calder Trophy finalist Stuart Skinner has established himself as the starter, Campbell isn't going anywhere and should receive plenty of opportunities to right the ship. Contract-wise, this is the opposite of the Kings, where Skinner was signed to a three-year extension in December. The Oilers don't want to waste Connor McDavid's prime years, so they are likely more concerned about performance than who has the fatter wallet. Campbell has to be better than what he showed last season (3.41 GAA, .888 SV%, -16.70 GSAA), which should also be factored in.

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Boston

This one might not seem to have the drama of the other situations. After all, these two goaltending partners share hugs after each win. Linus Ullmark is the reigning Vezina Trophy winner, but for much of the season he was splitting starts with Jeremy Swayman. That should continue to be the case here, with only one of these goalies going on a run of starts if the other goalie is injured or falls into a major slump. Could Ullmark be one of fantasy hockey's top goalies again? That's entirely possible. In this case, so could Swayman. Although the Bruins' season ended in major disappointment and they lost more than they gained in the offseason, they will still pick up enough wins to make both goalies rosterable.

There are other situations that will likely have some volatility. Teams like Montreal and San Jose come to mind here. However, you're probably best not to be heavily invested in their goalies.

An update on something I wrote in late June about Day 2 of the draft, listing several players drafted in the second round or after who you could keep an eye on in fantasy. In case you're wondering if I ever take the advice that I write about, yes, I do. At least sometimes I do.

Recently, I took part in a three-round entry draft in my deep keeper league. When it came time to make my third-round pick (48th overall, it's a 20-team league), I chose Luca Cagnoni, the lowest-drafted player of the five that I listed. Given his draft spot (4th round, 123rd overall, San Jose), making the NHL isn't a sure thing. Defensemen of his size (5-10, 172 lbs) seem to have more to prove than those that are at least 6-0 and 200 lbs. I like him because of his upside as a potential power-play contributor, and the fact that he scored 64 points in 67 games for the Portland Winterhawks of the WHL.

My first-round pick in this draft had already been traded by the previous manager (I've had the team for one year). I was thrilled that with my second-round pick (39th overall) I was able to select Otto Stenberg, who was drafted 25th overall by St. Louis. Stenberg had been projected to go at #19 in the Fantasy Prospects Report, and he was also listed as a top-10 draft-eligible winger in fantasy. You could draft other free agents in this draft, as players like Connor Brown, Max Pacioretty, and Tye Kartye were picked in this draft. I knew I needed to upgrade the quality of my prospects, so I took this as an opportunity to do so.

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2 Comments

  1. hockeyknight 2023-07-22 at 13:29

    Thanks Ian, I always enjoy you articles, but what I’m I missing when a Vegas goalie discussion does not include Lehner? Has it been determined that he will not play next season?

    • Ian Gooding 2023-07-23 at 00:13

      Good question. I haven’t seen any news regarding Lehner’s status for next season. But I’m kind of thinking if Hill was signed to a nearly $5 million cap hit and they are up against the cap, then Lehner probably isn’t coming back in 2023-24.

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