Wild West: Core Four – Part 3 of 4

Grant Campbell

2023-07-31

This week we will look at the following four teams in the West after we reviewed Colorado, Dallas, Edmonton and Los Angeles last week and Anaheim, Arizona, Calgary and Chicago the week before.

Brennan Des is doing the same thing with the Eastern Conference here.

The Core Four are the players from each roster, who should be the foundation for their team to build off of over the next three to five years.

Minnesota Wild

Kirill Kaprizov (F) (26 years old) – Kaprizov was well on his way to a possible 50 goals after putting up 39 in 63 games, but he was injured and played just 67 games and ended with 40 goals. He should be a relative lock to score 45-50 goals and get to 100 points when healthy.

Matt Boldy (F) (22) – Only three of his 37 ES points were with Kaprizov as he only played with him 6.7 percent of the time. He had 31 goals and 32 assists in 81 games but was on fire in the last 18 regular season games where he had 14 goals with just one of those on the PP. He could still be a year away from his breakout with only 128 games played so far.

Joel Eriksson Ek (F) (26) – Eriksson Ek showed how important he was to the Wild when he was injured in game one of the playoffs. He has seen his shot rate increase from 2.1 to 2.9 to 3.2 per game over the past three seasons and has seen his points per game increase from 0.54 to 0.65 to 0.78. He relies heavily on the PP to score goals as 12 of his 23 goals were scored there. His offensive zone starts were just 39.2 percent so to post 38 ES points is impressive.

Jared Spurgeon (D) (33) – Spurgeon is signed for four more years at $7.575 million AAV. He matches up against the other team’s top players more than anyone else on the Wild and has had back-to-back plus 32s. For such a diminutive player, he might not be the most physical but he blocked a career-high of 179 shots and killed penalties 57.2 percent of the time. As the team captain, he is the heart and soul of the Wild.

Nashville Predators

Filip Forsberg (F) (29) – Forsberg hasn't played more than 69 games in any of the past six seasons and played just 50 in 2022-23. He is signed for seven more years at $8.5 million AAV so is part of this core just from a salary standpoint.  It is a little surprising that he has had just one campaign with more than 64 points in his nine years. He had 42 goals and 42 assists in 69 games in 2021-22 and was rewarded with his eight-year deal which Nashville might already regret.

Roman Josi (D) (33) – Josi was never going to match his 96-point outburst from 2021-22 but he did still manage 59 points and 146 blocks in 67 games. He has five years remaining on his $9.059 million AAV contract. If the Predators get two or three years more at this level, they are getting very good value.

Juuse Saros (G) (28) – Saros has the third most wins (71) and has played the most games (131) in the NHL over the past two seasons. He is under contract for two more years at $5 million AAV. It's not a given that he will be re-signed in Nashville as they have the 11th overall pick from the 2020 draft pick Yaroslav Askarov in the wings.

Cody Glass (F) (24) – Including Glass here is a bit of a wildcard and more of a condemnation of how far the Predators have dropped. Glass is coming off just 14 goals and 21 assists and there is no guarantee he will progress from there. Other unproven considerations would be Askarov, Luke Evangelista, Thomas Novak or Philip Tomasino.

San Jose Sharks

Tomas Hertl (F) (29) – Hertl is signed for seven more years at $8.14 million AAV. He had 22 goals and 41 assists while being a minus 37 in 79 games. His plus-minus was more a result of being a very good player on a very bad team. On most teams, Hertl would be an ideal second-line center who can contribute offensively with 60-70 points and is good in the faceoff circle.

Logan Couture (F) (34) – Couture has played 926 career games all with San Jose. He has four years remaining at $8 million AAV and is coming off one of his best offensive seasons where he had 27 goals and 40 assists. He and Hertl should both be second-line centers but they have split the role between the top two lines for a few years now. Couture has been matched up against other teams’ top lines a little more than Hertl has.

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Erik Karlsson (D) (33) – I'm not sure how to explain a 101 points from a defenseman who hadn't played more than 71 games since 2016-17 and hadn't had more than 45 points since 2018-19? I had written off Karlsson ever getting back to 15 goals and 60 points let alone 25 and 101. It was just an incredible feat. He has four years remaining at $11.5 million AAV and he has apparently asked for a trade out of San Jose. Until that happens he is still the core piece on this team.

William Eklund (F) (21) – Whether Eklund (7th overall pick in 2021) shows well in 2023-24 or the 4th overall pick in 2022, Will Smith takes this spot eventually, the Sharks are still an older team in desperate need of some high-end youth. Eklund has only played 17 NHL games and 54 AHL games in his career and including him here might be a little unfair. The team has improved from 2022-23 but they have a long way to go still.

Seattle Kraken

Jared McCann (F) (27) – McCann took over 400 NHL games to have his breakout but did so with 40 goals and 30 assists in 79 games. He has averaged 2.7 shots per game two years in a row and has shot 13.6 and 19.0 percent. His true shooting percentage probably lies in the middle of those two. He has played a bit of center but seems to have found a permanent home on the wing. He is signed for four more years at $5 million AAV.

Matty Beniers (F) (21) – Beniers had a strong rookie season and won the Calder Trophy after he put up 24 goals and 33 assists in 80 games. He faded a little in the second half with just 21 points in 38 games after putting up 36 points in his first 42 games. That is fairly common for young players, especially those who come from college.

Vince Dunn (D) (27) – With the Kraken re-signing Dunn for four more years at $7.35 million AAV it cemented Dunn as their core defenseman. He broke out with 14 goals and 50 assists in 81 games. Dunn also put up 115 hits and 80 blocks and showed an improved defensive game, although some of that could be attributed to Adam Larsson playing with him 86.2 percent of the time at even strength.

Andre Burakovsky (F) – (28) – Burakovsky had an injury riddled first season with the Kraken where he played just 49 games and had 39 points. He is signed for four more years at $5.5 million AAV and Seattle will hope he can play more than 70 games per year. He is a bit of a placeholder here until Shane Wright perhaps takes this spot.

As mentioned in prior weeks, the core should be a snapshot of the franchise at a particular time and should reflect where the team is at in terms of competing for the Stanley Cup. The ideal core should be between 22 and 27 years of age and either approaching their peak or in the midst of it.

Teams with younger cores who are still prospects, should be in their rebuild or retool phase.

Teams with older cores are more than likely approaching the closing of their competitive windows and if they don't have the younger prospects becoming potential core members it could spell some lean time ahead.

Next week we will look at St. Louis, Vancouver, Vegas and Winnipeg for our last Core Four in the West.

Thanks very much for reading and if you have any comments or suggestions, please leave them below or follow me on Twitter @gampbler15

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UPCOMING GAMES

Nov 21 - 19:11 WSH vs COL
Nov 21 - 19:11 CBJ vs T.B
Nov 21 - 19:11 OTT vs VGK
Nov 21 - 19:11 DET vs NYI
Nov 21 - 19:11 BOS vs UTA
Nov 21 - 19:11 N.J vs CAR
Nov 21 - 20:11 STL vs S.J
Nov 21 - 20:11 CHI vs FLA
Nov 21 - 21:11 CGY vs NYR
Nov 21 - 21:11 EDM vs MIN

Starting Goalies

Top Skater Views

  Players Team
JASON ROBERTSON DAL
WYATT JOHNSTON DAL
DECLAN CHISHOLM MIN
JAKE WALMAN S.J
WILLIAM EKLUND S.J

Top Goalie Profile Views

  Players Team
SEBASTIAN COSSA DET
DUSTIN WOLF CGY
MACKENZIE BLACKWOOD S.J
IVAN FEDOTOV PHI
YAROSLAV ASKAROV S.J

LINE COMBOS

  Frequency ARI Players
25.8 NICK SCHMALTZ ALEXANDER KERFOOT CLAYTON KELLER
17.5 DYLAN GUENTHER LAWSON CROUSE LOGAN COOLEY
17.2 AKU RATY JACK MCBAIN MATIAS MACCELLI

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