Yesterday I listed some potential sleepers for the upcoming season. Not all of them might qualify as sleepers in your league – yes, shout out to those of you who didn't think Evan Bouchard was a sleeper. It all depends on the type of league (keeper/non-keeper) and the size. What if I said don't sleep on Bouchard this year?

Before we get into the busts, here are a couple more sleepers from reader submission.

Jamie Drysdale

Drysdale definitely qualifies as a sleeper. He played just eight games last season after he suffered a torn labrum in his shoulder early in the season. The season prior, Drysdale reached 32 points in his first full season, averaging nearly half of the power-play minutes that he had available to him. Drysdale will be able to compete for the first-unit power-play role, and he is easily the Ducks' top offensive-minded defenseman that shoots right. The Ducks have a number of prospect defensemen in the pipeline (Pavel Mintyukov, Jackson Lacombe, and Olen Zellweger), but Drysdale at least has a head start. As well, these other d-men shoot left-handed, which won't push Drysdale out of the lineup.  

Sean Durzi

I'm regretting not keeping Durzi a season ago after I really didn't know what to make of his rookie season (27 PTS in 64 GP). Turns out that he was able to build on that (38 PTS in 72 GP). Now he's been traded to Arizona, where he should be able to take advantage of more minutes and perhaps even more power-play time. The Coyotes still aren't a playoff team, but they're getting better and aren't necessarily going to tank Durzi's offensive numbers. He could reach the 40-point mark for the first time in his career.

Fantasy Take: Durzi Goes to the Desert

I've always thought that if writing about sleepers, it's also a good idea to mention some potential busts. In using the term "bust", I'm not necessarily assuming that the player will have a bad season. Instead, this is a player who I think could perform below normal expectations, or will regress statistically in some way. In other words, you may want to let them fall below their normal ADP before drafting them, or simply let someone else draft them.

Bo Horvat

Horvat scored a career-high 38 goals and 70 points in 2022-23. However, he could have reached 40 and perhaps beyond had he not sputtered down the stretch with just two goals in his last 19 games. He'll score at a better pace than he did during the final quarter, but a move to the Islanders only adds to the thought that last season's full body of work isn't sustainable. The Isles don't have the league's worst offense, but they are very defensively focused and tend to spread out the scoring. Horvat has had sub-50% offensive zone starts throughout his career, which could further mitigate his offensive production.

Andrei Kuzmenko

Kuzmenko performed far better than expected in his first NHL season, scoring 38 goals and adding 35 assists for 73 points. Was this a fluke for the former KHL scoring star? His 27% shooting percentage led all players that played at least 10 games. As far as we know, Kuzmenko might normally have a high shooting percentage in the NHL, but that is an extremely high shooting percentage. Then there's a report that the Canucks weren't happy with Kuzmenko's round-the-world summer trip when coach Rick Tocchet was emphasizing having a "big summer." Don't expect Kuzmenko to crash and burn in his second NHL season, but you might have to lower expectations a bit.

Phillip Danault

Danault won't be a top-100 pick by any means, but there are probably better options if you are looking for depth in the late rounds of your draft. He's reached 50 points in back-to-back seasons for the Kings, but the addition of Pierre-Luc Dubois potentially pushes him down the lineup from a second-line to a third-line role. Danault also consistently averages less than 50% in offensive zone starts, which is a number that could be pushed even further down if he is relied upon in a more defensive role. He should continue to add value in leagues that count faceoffs, though.

Victor Hedman

At one point last season, I had actually seen a question about whether to drop Hedman. He shouldn't be droppable either then or now, but his point total in 2022-23 had taken a major hit (49 PTS in 76 GP). I don't necessarily think he'll drop even more, but we might have to assume that he'll lose valuable power-play time to the younger Mikhail Sergachev. Hedman is now 32 and the effort of deep playoff runs could already be taking a toll on his big body (6-7, 244 lbs).

Hedman is no longer draftable in the first few rounds. A Yahoo ADP of 68 and Fantrax ADP of 78 seem closer to his projected value. However, defensemen like Josh Morrissey, Miro Heiskanen, and even Bouchard (!) have a lower ADP than Hedman in Yahoo. That doesn't seem right.  

Brent Burns

This is more of a hunch than anything, but it's worth noting that Burns is now 38 and Father Time eventually catches up to everyone. Even the NHL's current under-contract ironman (761 games – Phil Kessel has over 1000 consecutive games but is currently unsigned). The reacquisition of Tony DeAngelo is another concern, as DeAngelo's value is maximized whenever he is on the first-unit power play. Burns currently has a Yahoo ADP of 83 and a Fantrax ADP of 74. Both might be a bit high if factoring in these two potential red flags.

Erik Karlsson

He won't be a bust in the sense that he won't be productive for your roster again. After all, moving to a veteran star-laden roster like that of Pittsburgh should help his value, even if those stars are on the downside of their career. What I mean by "help" his value is that it's better than it would have been had he stayed in San Jose. Either way, don't bet on another 100-point season. Something like 70 points might be more reasonable, especially when he might have to share power-play duties with Kris Letang.

Another consideration for Karlsson: he doesn't offer a lot in the way of peripherals such as penalty minutes, hits, and blocks. He should at least improve on his minus-26 from 2022-23, though.

Sergei Bobrovsky

Has Bobrovsky found another level to his game after the Panthers' playoff run? He would have been a Conn Smythe favorite had the Panthers finished the job. However, playoff success doesn't always translate to the regular season, which is a more accurate benchmark of where Bobrovsky stands. His 3.07 GAA and .902 SV% were simply average, while his win-loss record was barely .500. The Panthers are facing some potential key injuries on defense to start the season, which could force other defensemen into roles that might be beyond their capabilities and ultimately hurt Bob's fantasy value. Don't fall for the recency effect.  

Again, Yahoo gets this one wrong with an ADP of 75. An ADP of 165 on Fantrax seems a little low, but the more serious players there don't seem to be buying into the playoff run.

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