Capped: Bounce Backs for Wilson, Jarvis, and Hartman
Andrew Santillo
2023-10-05
Welcome back my Salary Cap friendlies. We are now one week away from puck drop! Before we dive in, I am aware that Gary Bettman told owners today that the cap is going to be going up and will absolutely be diving into that conversation…just not this week. This weekend is going to be a very popular one for fantasy drafts and of course the last-minute drafts that will take place early next week. Believe me though, we will absolutely talk all things cap here very shortly! For now, though I wanted to look at some names on contracts out there that might be due for a bounce back season. This could be due to injury or just the plain and simple fact that their previous season was down, and we expect some sort of improvement.
*For this article roster percentages will be omitted with most fantasy sites undergoing offseason maintenance as well as some fantasy leagues not yet renewed for the upcoming season. Salary information from CapFriendly.
Tom Wilson – RW – 29 years old
Contract: $9.5M – Last season of current deal, at $5.1M. 7yr $6.5M deal to begin next season – Both contracts have a M-NTC
Tom Wilson had a down season last year and that had everything to do with missing time. No, it wasn't a suspension, but I see how you got there, it was due to a knee injury that kept him out the beginning of last season until he could make his regular season debut on January 8th.
The cap hit doesn't so much scare me, the extension however could be trouble down the line and that's just given how Wilson plays. For those in dynasty that is a down-the-road problem but for those just drafting for this upcoming season I think Wilson provides a great option for a back end of the draft pick or even in some cases a waiver claim before the season starts if he goes undrafted. What picking Wilson will help with in league that score hits and blocks is just that, and a lot of them. I don't see a world where if he plays even close to a full 82 games that you can't pencil yourself in for around 215 hits and 30 blocked shots. This will be even more of the case if he is kept off Alex Ovechkin's line at the top and put more on a checking line. Keep in mind, the Capitals are one of those clubs that when looking at a game sheet you'll notice that a player skated up on the top line for an entire period and we're left guessing if that will remain a trend or not. Maybe their new head coach changes that but it is something to watch for on a player like Wilson who has spent time on each of the Capitals top two and even three lines in the past.
The injury bug here does make me think twice but that's keeping in mind that if he does miss any amount of time, you'll be able to navigate the waiver with his cap hit now on IR. Keeping in mind even with the abbreviated season, he was on pace for 55 points which is around where he landed the year prior in 78 games at 52.
Ryan Hartman – C/RW – Washington – 29 years old
Contract: $1.7M – One year remaining
This has to be one of the best contracts out there and I don't think it's really talked about enough. First off, wild ride (no pun intended) of just how Ryan Hartman ended up in Minnesota and while I can only hope they can navigate the cap issues that are very around this club, one more season of Hartman at a lower AAV is both a blessing and a curse.
It was a down season for Hartman who only appeared in 59 games last season but I'm leaning more on past performance here and as we stated earlier, a very easy contract to move onto your club. For Hartman I think a bounce back happens in a big way here both by his play and just who is on his line in Mats Zuccarello and Kirill Kaprizov. Looking at two seasons ago, that line was 4th in expected goals for in the entire NHL with lines that played over 500 minutes. It seemed like last season that line just never really got off the ground on in the way we expected it to but I'm willing to go in on picking up Hartman in the later rounds of a draft if he's available.
Seth Jarvis – RW – Carolina – 21 years old
Contract: ELC $894,167K – One year remaining
It’s difficult for a player to have a "down" season if they've only played in two seasons but I just feel like Seth Jarvis fits what we're trying to go after? Two seasons ago he played in 68 games reaching the 40-point mark and definitely had flashes of the type of player that could really make noise on this Carolina club, while last year appearing in a full 82 and coming up a point short of where he did the year prior.
First off, the contract is very easy to piece into a lineup and if he does get in extension, I can't see it being a massive hike to potentially be difficult to roster, unless the Cole Caulfield contract (8 x $7.85) really ups the price here or if someone similar like Dawson Mercer signs for a higher AAV. Regardless, for now it's manageable and I like the situation on this Hurricanes roster that he finds himself in across from newly acquired Michael Bunting with Sebastian Aho at center (at least that's what I think they'll do to start the season).
There are some encouraging signs here for a potentially good season, his shots on goal per 60 minutes went up over a full point in his second year and we saw him both hit and block more shots over the course of his sophomore season. This is a player that in smaller leagues I think goes undrafted and if I'm you maybe I do the same but put him on your watch list to keep tabs on what his production is looking like. For those in bigger leagues maybe the same happens here where he goes undrafted but in that case, he might be taken off of waivers sooner given the size of the player pool in larger leagues.
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