The Journey: Early Update on Calder Predictions
Ben Gehrels
2023-11-04
Welcome back to The Journey, where we track the development of prospects as they excel in junior, make the NHL, and push towards stardom.
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Now that we are about a month into the 2023-24 season and many rookies are approaching the end of their nine-game auditions, I wanted to return to the Top 25 Calder Candidates article I wrote in the summer for the Dobber Guide for an early check-in. Although nine players have started the year in the AHL, most of the top rookie scorers so far—with the notable exception of Pavel Mintyukov (ANA) and Matthew Poitras (BOS)—featured on my preseason list. The elite prospects we all expected to see at the top of the leaderboard have all come out hot, but Bobby Brink (PHI)—tied with Logan Cooley (ARI) for the scoring lead—has been a particular revelation.
Here is what the NHL's Top 15 rookie scoring list looks right now. Players included in my Top 25 article are bolded, and Honourable Mentions (HM) are noted. Because we are only one month into the season, there are a lot of ties and not a ton of separation anywhere on the board yet.
Top 15 Rookie Scoring Leaders
t-1st) Bobby Brink (PHI): 8 in 10 NHL GP.
I wrote about Brink's divisive fantasy value last June after he received scores of 5, 5, 6, 7, 7, 8, and 8 from the Dobber Prospects editing team. A few of us (myself included) viewed him as a top prospect, but others thought he would top out as more of a middle-six piece. The former Hobey Baker winner's high-IQ playmaking and sniping ability have shone through in the early going, and he has been one of the only bright spots on an otherwise dismal Philly squad.
t-1st) Logan Cooley (ARI): 8 in 10 NHL GP.
A late addition to the race, Cooley was immediately expected to contend for the Calder when he announced in late summer that he would debut in the NHL instead of returning to college. And voilà—here he is at the top of the leaderboard. I am confident everyone has already seen his first NHL goal from this past week, but here it is again. The speed. The hands. I just wish that I owned him somewhere. Anywhere.
t-3rd) Ridly Greig (OTT): 7 in 9 NHL GP.
Tied with Vladimir Tarasenko with +7 for the team lead in plus-minus. Adding just shy of two shots and two hits per game. Advanced stats suggest some regression is due, but he and his line have been one of the best stories out of Ottawa in the first month of action. Scoring + grit. He sure looks like a top-six player to me.
t-3rd) Luke Hughes (NJD): 7 in 10 NHL GP.
His offensive instincts, PP prowess, and mobility on the blueline have all been as advertised so far. He is a significant power play weapon who also holds his own at even strength. He is tied with Dougie Hamilton for the team lead in points from the back end but has taken the edge on PP1 so far, which is surprising and impressive. Could the three Hughes brothers win every single trophy except the Vezina, William Jennings, and Jack Adams in June? Assuming Jack returns soon from injury, that possibility is not as far-fetched as it sounds.
t-3rd) Pavel Mintyukov (ANA): 7 in 10 NHL GP.
Easily my biggest oversight. I went all in on Olen Zellweger winning this roster battle, and the early returns do not look great: Zellweger is doing okay in the AHL while Mintyukov is absolutely ripping it up with the Ducks. He is fast, confident, and dangerous-looking with the puck. Just look at this play: he smothers and strips the opposing forward, wheels the puck up ice, gains the offensive zone effortlessly, and takes a sick backhand after a slick little give-and-go. You're telling me this guy is 19 years old and skipped the AHL entirely? Bonkers.
t-6th) Connor Bedard (CHI): 6 in 9 NHL GP.
The way the Blackhawks were playing out of the gates reminded me of when a veteran player is one or two goals away from a major milestone and his teammates are just passing him the puck and deferring to him all night. Bedard was just shooting that puck, all night, every night. He racked up an insane 20 shots over his first four NHL games before settling in a bit and utilizing his playmaking more often. The odd part is that three of his four goals have come in the last five games, over which he has only recorded eight shots on net. He is still acclimating to the league and all the associated pressures of being a first-overall generational talent on a terrible team. The production will come.
t-6th) Adam Fantilli (CBJ): 6 in 10 NHL GP.
He is seeing nearly five minutes less per game than Johnny Gaudreau but is currently outproducing the Blue Jackets' star veteran. He is finding ways to get hard, accurate shots off both in traffic and on the rush. You would never guess that he is only 19 years old. Superstar potential.
t-6th) Luke Evangelista (NAS): 6 in 10 NHL GP.
Pointless in his first four games. Six in his last six. Watch out, because Evangelista is heating up. Like Bedard, his production started to flow once he eased off on his inflated shot rate to kick off the year (10 in 3). He is receiving all the PP1 time he can handle, is overdue for more goals (xGF 3.94 5v5), and should continue to be a scoring leader on this young team moving forward.
t-6th) Marco Rossi (MIN): 6 in 10 NHL GP.
One point in his first five. Five in five since. His line actually got caved in (31.3% Corsi For) last game against the Devils, but Rossi played alongside Kirill Kaprizov and Matt Boldy for one of the first times in his Wild tenure. Very exciting! His production thus far is extra impressive because he was previously stapled to Marcus Foligno and Frederick Gaudreau, and that line was driving play too (52.5 CF%). Hopefully his top-line audition continues and we get to see more and more of what has made Rossi so special all along.
10th) Matthew Poitras (BOS): 5 in 10 NHL GP.
Well, I sure did not see this coming. Poitras was not even on my radar when coming up with my list of Calder hopefuls. But he has been one of the most exciting rookie storylines of 2023-24 so far. Coming into the year, I saw a second-round pick who did not even hit a point-per-game in his draft year but then had a production spike in his D+1. Impressive but somewhat common. No way he is sticking with the Bruins this year, I thought. But the young man just played his 10th game, and although his production has slowed in recent games, he looks like he is Boston for good now. Hopefully Poitras does not become the next Juraj Slafkovsky (MON), Dylan Holloway (EDM), or Kent Johnson (CBJ).
t-11th) Kaedan Korczak (VGK): 4 in 6 NHL GP.
An older stay-at-home defender currently playing over his head a bit, Korczak has the most ridiculous looking PNHLe trajectory on this list. Expect him to fade quickly but carve out a role as a solid bottom-four defender with the Golden Knights.
![](https://dobberhockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/image-10.png)
t-11th) Leo Carlsson (ANA): 4 in 6 NHL GP.
Amid his much-scrutinized load management plan, Carlsson has continued to produce. If he continues to regularly miss games as part of the Ducks' strategy for easing him into the NHL, he will have a hard time keeping up with the other elite names in his year's rookie crop. But the trophy does not really matter at the end of the day. Anaheim has yet another legit talent here.
t-11th) Matthew Knies (TOR): 4 in 10 NHL GP.
Leafs Nation seems very happy with the big guy. Like Poitras, his scoring has dried up lately, and he is not receiving nearly the same amount of PP exposure (ie. basically none) as most of the other top rookies, but he already looks like a valuable piece of the puzzle in T.O. 1.6 hits per game means he carries value in multi-cat even when he's not hitting the scoresheet.
t-14h) Brock Faber (MIN): 3 in 10 NHL GP.
Probably the gutsiest addition to my list, the defensive-minded Faber is not the usual suspect for Calder consideration. But I figured if Barrett Jackman could win the award in 2002-03 on the strength of his stalwart defensive play (+23) while scoring less than 20 points, anything could happen. Faber is a very different player than Jackman but has shown comparable ability to play big-time NHL minutes right out of the gates. He is +4 so far, averaging over 23 minutes a night after playing in college just last year. A smooth, uniquely advanced defender who gives the Wild blue line a significant defensive boost.
t-14th) Dmitri Voronkov (CBJ): 3 in 4 NHL GP.
A huge (6-5, 240lbs) 23-year-old winger out of the KHL, Voronkov seems to be part of the reason that Kent Johnson has surprisingly been demoted to the AHL. He has been seeing an unusual amount of PP time (42%) on the second unit, and his line with Kirill Marchenko and Cole Sillinger was absolutely dominant last game against the Lightning (90.1% CF). He showed a decent scoring touch last year in the top Russian league (31 points in 54 games) and has a penchant for physicality and garnering penalty minutes. He likely won't finish in the top 20 in rookie scoring, but he has a unique fantasy profile.
t-14th) Jackson LaCombe (ANA): 3 in 10 NHL GP.
Another member of Anaheim's loaded prospect blue line. 17 blocks in 10 games stands out. It looks like we can expect 25-30 points with a hit, a shot, and a block and a half per game. Not quite rosterable yet in most formats, but LaCombe should become a solid defender for Anaheim in time.
t-14th) Kevin Korchinski (CHI): 3 in 9 NHL GP. – Honourable Mention
Despite the Blackhawks' struggles, the duo of Korchinski and Seth Jones is currently rocking a 53.6% CF, facing off against other teams' top players. That's impressive stuff for a 19-year-old defender whose freewheeling style in Junior was supposed to mean a difficult transition to the highest level. Like Poitras, Korchinski is officially sticking with the Blackhawks past his nine-game audition. That means we will likely get to see more sweet, sweet Korchinski-to-Bedard plays like this one:
t-14th) Matthew Phillips (WAS): 3 in 9 NHL GP.
It is wonderful to see this feisty guy finally get a chance in Washington after marinating endlessly in the minors with Calgary. He plays with a fiery passion every single shift and stands out that way on an often-lethargic-looking Washington team full of aging stars. Hopefully he sticks past his nine games.
t-14th) Pavel Dorofeyev (VGK): 3 in 6 NHL GP. – Honourable Mention
Skilled Russian is making the most of his bottom-six minutes but will need more time and better linemates to truly make some Calder noise.
t-14th) Tye Kartye (SEA): 3 in 10 NHL GP.
Who has the highest Shots/60 rate amongst rookies this year (min. 5 games)? It's actually Kartye (13.7), not Bedard (9.5). Like Knies, Kartye is seeing basically no PP time but is featuring for the moment on what is conceivably the Kraken's top line alongside Matty Beniers and Oliver Bjorkstrand. The production has not really come on strong yet, but he is taking nearly three shots per game and playing with skilled linemates. Sneaky buy-low option.
Outside the Top 15
Tyson Foerster (PHI): 2 in 10 NHL GP.
David Jiricek (CBJ): 2 in 9 NHL GP.
Jakob Pelletier (CGY): 0 in 0 NHL GP. Injured in preseason.
Connor Zary (CGY): 10 in 6 AHL GP. 1 in 1 NHL GP.
Prospects in the AHL
Nine of the 25 prospects included on my Calder list have started the year off in the AHL. All of them have been performing well in the minors so far and remain strong call-up options as their NHL teams inevitably run into injury problems. While their Calder chances grow dimmer with each missed NHL game, their long-term outlooks remain exceedingly bright.
Brandt Clarke, LAK
6 in 8 AHL GP.
Mavrik Bourque, DAL:
8 in 7 AHL GP.
Simon Edvinsson, DET
4 in 7 AHL GP.
Joakim Kemell, NAS
3 in 6 AHL GP.
Jiri Kulich, BUF
11 in 9 AHL GP.
Simon Nemec, NJD
2 in 4 AHL GP.
Logan Stankoven, DAL
9 in 7 AHL GP.
Shane Wright, SEA
6 in 6 AHL GP.
Olen Zellweger, ANA
4 in 7 AHL GP.
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Honourable Mention: Emil Andrae (PHI), Yaroslav Askarov (NAS), Lukas Cormier (VGK), Matt Coronato (CGY), Pavel Dorofeyev (VGK), Lukas Dostal (ANA), Ryker Evans (SEA), Cutter Gauthier (PHI), Joel Hofer (STL), Kevin Korchinski (CHI), Hendrix Lapierre (WAS), Raphael Lavoie (EDM), Fabian Lysell (BOS), Jimmy Snuggerud (STL), Alex Turcotte (LAK), Jesper Wallstedt (MIN), Dustin Wolf (CGY).
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