Ramblings: Canucks Scorers; Newhook; Stutzle; Large Dynasty Trades; Mintyukov & More (Nov 17)

Alexander MacLean

2023-11-16

Coming into last night's games, the Vancouver Canucks trio of Quinn Hughes, Elias Pettersson, and J.T. Miller was tied for the league lead in scoring, with 26 points each. I'm not sure if that has ever happened before with a three-way tie for the league lead in scoring (past the first couple games of a season) and I'm not sure if we'll see it again. There's certainly something special going on in Vancouver.

I'll pour a little bit of cold water on things though, and say that this trio won't all finish with the 133 points that they're pacing for. Hughes has greatly improved his shot numbers, which really help his underlying expected scoring. Him running through the next 65 games at a pace a little over a point-per-game would push him pretty much to the 100-point-mark, which seems like a good expectation for the rest of the way.

Forwards Miller and Pettersson don't have many red flags other than high shooting percentages from Miller and Hughes especially, which will likely fall back somewhere closer to their normal. This would have a trickle-down impact to Pettersson's point totals as well, but maybe a slightly smaller drop off than with Hughes. Still, a final season total around the 105-115 range may make sense for both the forwards.

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It's always nice to have hockey in the afternoon, to tune in a little during the day when you can. We should have some early games over the next few days as well because of the continuation of the Global Series, so make sure your lineups are set in time.

In yesterday's game which was the first one of this year's Global Series in Sweden, we did see a goal from the big Swedish presence on the ice in Lucas Raymond. That was the turning point in the game, because Ottawa jumped out to a 4-0 lead, and then Detroit stormed back to tie it 4-4 – and that was only the end of the second period.

Jake Sanderson, Drake Batherson, Norris, Brady Tkachuk, and Vladimir Tarasenko had two points each, which shouldn't surprise too many people as Ottawa's offence is very much so concentrated in the top-half of their roster. Tim Stutzle notched three points, and is pacing the pack in Ottawa with 20 points in 14 games. If anything, his underlying numbers say that he should have even more points at this stage. If you can trade for him then it's not buying high, it's just buying in on a star.

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Bryan Rust scored two goals last night, and he's really enjoying his spot alongside vintage Sidney Crosby this year. He's up to 15 points in 15 games, and I maintain what I said on Wednesday, that the systems change in Pittsburgh is going to make them excellent fantasy owns the rest of the way.

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As an Alex Newhook owner in one league, it was nice to see him on the scoresheet again after three straight games of zeroes. His shot rate leaves a lot to be desired, with under one per game, and not even a two-shot game since late October. When one of Cole Caufield or Josh Andersen finally break out of their slump, and the goals start going in, some more assists should start piling up. The goals however, are likely going to be few and far between.

While we wait for Andersen and Caufield, Jesse Ylonen helped very few people with his two goals last night. He's not someone that can be relied on for a whole lot of shooting or scoring in the future.

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Adam Fantilli had 10 shots on net yesterday, but nothing to show for it. He's looking better by the game, and should be a difference maker in the second-half, even in shallower re-draft leagues.

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A couple of big deals between the same two GMs in one of my leagues over the last week.

Deal One:

Team A trades:

Kevin Fiala

Kaapo Kakko

Team B trades:

Teuvo Teravainen

Sam Reinhart

Deal Two:

Team A trades:

Tage Thompson

Ilya Lyubushkin

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Team B trades:

Josh Norris

Connor McMichael

This is a large league that is mainly points-focused, and has a salary cap, both teams have rosters that could contend, but Team B has had some awful luck in the H2H matchups this year, and is 1-4 at the moment despite the fourth-most points in the league. Team A is one of two undefeated teams left at this point (in a 24-team league), so they're a definite championship contender.

They're both deals that work for both teams. In deal one, Fiala and Kakko are the younger group, with more upside than Reinhart and Teravainen, but with Kakko still trying to figure things out, it's a less productive duo at the moment. Especially when considering how productive Reinhart has been this year (23pts in 15 games), Team A is loading up a little further for this year, without giving up too much in the future, as both Reinhart and Teravainen are under 30. Adding on to the considerations, is the fact that Reinhart is due a big raise this summer, and it could be upwards of $9 million if he keeps this production up. Meanwhile, as the key part of the return, Fiala is locked in for another five years after this one, at a cap hit under $8 million. Another play for the upcoming contention window from team B.

With deal two, team B is taking on the injured Thompson, who could be out for only six weeks or so, but there's risk it's a lot longer. As long as he heals fully though and is ready at full health for next season, then team B is happy. Team A adds Norris (who scored yesterday in Sweden), to keep the production that would have otherwise been missing over the next two months. The addition of McMichael adds some depth as well. In a league where there are some monetary prizes for both regular season and playoff winners, this keeps the currently undefeated Team A in the race for both.

That's how you shape a trade to make it a win-win.

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Colin Miller made his Devils debut last night, and while that may not be extremely fantasy relevant, his impact on Luke Hughes might be.

If this frees up Luke Hughes more at even strength, then his scoring could take a jump – though that jump may be delayed until the top forwards are healthy again.

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We had both Anthony Cirelli and Arbur Xhekaj leave their respective games with injuries last night. This isn't my usual Wednesday Ramblings, so I can't just rely on the Wednesday Injury Ward article updating you on injuries, so I will direct you to our new Injury Ward writer Blake Creamer to get any updates you might need. His debut article with the site came out two days ago here

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If Cirelli misses any time, then we may see a bump in ice time for Nick Paul, and some extra opportunities for Alex Barre-Boulet as well. That would make a difference for both of their fantasy values, but the problem is that Paul and Brayden Point would need to take over Cirelli's heavy defensive responsibilities. He takes a lot of the heavy lifting, and that's a big reason the big guns can produce on the offensive side as well as they do. Point had the best game last night, with a goal and an assist.

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I thought this was an interesting note, and while Rodwin Dionicio doesn't have the same ceiling or pedigree as Pavel Mintyukov, he is someone whose value could see a leap over the coming months.

Generally, I have found that the prospects in the CHL (especially in the bigger OHL cities) that get more media attention, end up building a bigger reputation and thus a higher value in fantasy. If you're someone that likes to try and buy stock in prospects before they jump, and then sell those higher valued prospects for NHL talent, then this might be a name to check out in the right league size. If it's not relevant to your league, go find some Mintyukov and Dionicio highlights anyways, as they're just fun to watch!

Mintyukov by the way has 10 points in 16 games, and only a single game without a shot on net. He’s here and he’s for real.

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See you next Wednesday! You can find me on Twitter/X here, or BlueSky here if you have any fantasy hockey questions or comments.  

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