Wild West: Early Fantasy MVPs and MDPs
Grant Campbell
2023-11-20
As we are almost to the first-quarter point of the season, I'm going to choose a most valuable player and a most disappointing player from each team in the West this week. I'm going to try and choose players who have been a revelation or a disaster for fantasy pools.
The nice thing about disappointing players is that they can be acquired in fantasy fairly cheaply, and their value tends to go up over time.
Anaheim Ducks
MVP – Frank Vatrano/Mason McTavish/John Gibson
The Ducks have a three-way tie in my opinion.
Frank Vatrano has had the best start of his career in his ninth season. He has 12 goals and five assists in 18 games and has seen his shots per game increase from 2.9 to 3.4, with his ice time going from 16:41 to 18:41. His career-high of 24 goals and 41 points are both in danger of being broken.
McTavish is trending ahead of his 200-game breakout, with eight goals and nine assists in 18 games, on pace for 77 points in his sophomore season. He has seen his shots per game go from 2.0 to 2.8 and his ice time go from 15:22 to 17:24.
John Gibson has been excellent in 2023-24 for the Ducks which is good news, as it didn't look like there was going to be a happy ending. He has a record of 4-6-0 with a save percentage of 92.6 and a GSAA of 7.26. He has eight quality starts in 10.
MDP – Trevor Zegras
Zegras missed most of the pre-season because he didn't have a contract in place. It's not unusual for a player to have a slow start after that scenario. Zegras' struggles have extended beyond that and now he has missed the past five games with an injury. In 12 games, he has just one goal and one assist despite playing top-line minutes and being on the first unit of Anaheim's power play.
Arizona Coyotes
MVP – Sean Durzi
Sean Durzi was acquired from the Los Angeles Kings in the off-season. Durzi is on pace for 50-55 points and has played well without the puck, which was the knock on him previously. He is the quarterback on the first unit of the power play and has seen his ice time average over 23 minutes per game after being just under 20 minutes with the Kings. The only people not happy with Durzi are the fantasy owners who traded him in the off-season, or the ones that had Juuso Valimaki.
MDP – Barrett Hayton
After putting up 14 goals and 15 assists in his last 39 games of the 2022-23 season, not many people suspected that Hayton could possibly repeat last year's slow start of three points in his first 20 games. He is currently out with an injury, but he went his first games of 2023-24 without a point. The good news is that he had four points in his last five games before being hurt. While not an overly physical player, he had averaged just over a hit per game in his first 176 games. He has two hits in 16 games this year.
Calgary Flames
MVP – MacKenzie Weegar
In my mind, Weegar has been the best player on the Flames this season which is good news as he is signed at $6.25 million AAV until the end of the 2030-31 season. Currently he is on pace for 35-40 points, over 110 hits and over 175 blocks while averaging just under 22 minutes per game.
If Connor Zary and/or Martin Pospisil can carry on their fine play, one or both of them will belong here next month.
MDP – Jonathan Huberdeau
Huberdeau has three points in his past two games and might play himself out of this honor sooner than later. It still leaves him with just 10 points in 17 games (0.59/game) which is lower than the 0.7 points per game he had in 2022-23. After putting up 115 points in 2021-22, anything less than a point per game for Huberdeau is disappointing.
Chicago Blackhawks
MVP – Connor Bedard
I have not witnessed a team flow through and rely on an 18-year-old since Sidney Crosby in 2005-06 and even he was surrounded by Mario Lemieux, Mark Recchi, Sergei Gonchar and John Leclair.
Bedard has nine goals and six assists in his first 16 games and is on pace for 45 goals and 75 points.
MDP – Lukas Reichel/Taylor Raddysh
After Reichel put up 15 points in 23 games at the end of the 2022-23 season I thought he might hit the ground running in 2023-24, but his role was taken by Bedard and Reichel has struggled to adapt so far. In 16 games he has just a goal and three assists and has been inconsistent off the puck.
Reichel did get to play on a line with Bedard and Philipp Kurashev on Sunday night against Buffalo and had an assist at even strength.
Raddysh had 20 goals and 17 assists in 2022-23 but has just three goals and one assist in his first 16 games of 2023-24. The biggest difference for Raddysh is that he lost his role on the first unit of the power play and has seen his usage go from 62.8 to 29.9 percent. He doesn't have a power play point yet after having seven PPGs and 15 PPPs in 2022-23.
Colorado Avalanche
MVP – Cale Makar
The Avalanche have been fairly inconsistent this season, but Makar has been excellent. He's been a little overshadowed with the emergence of Quinn Hughes, but Makar is on pace with Hughes in almost every offensive category, and has 29 blocks in 16 games. The best part of his game so far is that he hasn't missed a game. He is on pace for 123 points.
MDP – Jonathan Drouin
I didn't have high expectations for Drouin, but I knew that he would get an opportunity to play with Nathan MacKinnon at even strength, with some potential for power-play time. He received seven or eight games with MacKinnon and Mikko Rantanen but had just one assist to show for it. He has been a healthy scratch in two games and has just one goal and two assists in 14 games. Perhaps he has turned the corner a little as he had two points in his last four games.
Dallas Stars
MVP – Matt Duchene
Duchene started his time with the Dallas Stars going pointless in his first four games. Since then, he has six goals and eight assists in 11 games, with just two of those points being on the power play. His addition has given the Stars three very solid lines that can all produce offense. He is on pace for 77 points.
MDP – Jason Robertson
Robertson wasn't picked in most hockey pools to have five goals and 15 points after his first 16 games. In his first 23 games in 2022-23 he had 19 goals and 36 points on 97 SOG. In 16 games he has just 46 SOG and has seen his shots on goal go from 3.8/g to 2.9. His past three games are a good sign as he had 14 SOG, with two goals and three assists.
Edmonton Oilers
MVP – Leon Draisaitl
I am reaching a little for an MVP for the Oilers so far in 2023-24 as no one on this roster has exceeded expectations. By including Draisaitl here, I'm admitting that he has perhaps been the least disappointing of the big guns. He is still on pace for 108 points, which strong enough to not be a disappointment. At the very least, Draisaitl hasn't hurt most fantasy owners.
Other players holding their own are Evan Bouchard, Evander Kane and Zach Hyman.
MDP – Connor McDavid
McDavid missed two games with an injury and has not been the same since his return to the lineup. In nine games since returning, he has two goals and three assists. Overall, he has just 13 points in 14 games and has just five ES points in those games. In the prior three seasons, McDavid had averaged an ES point per game. He has turned many hockey pools on their heads so far.
Los Angeles Kings
MVP – Adrian Kempe/Cam Talbot
Kempe has been a revelation in 2023-24 with 18 points in his first 16 games. He is on pace for 92 points which would blow through his career-high of 66 points. Impressively, he is on pace for 40 goals right now, despite no PPGs.
Talbot has given the Kings above-average goaltending, which is something they didn't have for most of the 2022-23 season. His record is 9-3-1, with a save percentage of 93.0 and a GSAA of 10.18. He hasn't had a GSAA this high since posting a 13.18 in 2016-17 while in Edmonton.
Quinton Byfield could easily belong here as well. With 14 points in 16 games, he's appearing to breakout.
MDP – Pierre-Luc Dubois
Dubois appeared to have found his production level over the past two years between 0.74 and 0.86 points per game. He's had a bit of a slow start in Los Angeles with just nine points in 16 games (0.56) and he has seen his ice time dip from around 18:30/g to 16:40. As a result, his shots on goal have decreased from 2.8 to 2.0 per game. The good news is that he is still seeing time on the first unit of the power play but not nearly what he saw in the first 10 games with the Kings.
Minnesota Wild
MVP – Joel Eriksson Ek
Eriksson Ek has elevated his points per game in every year since 2017-18, including so far this season. His progression began at 0.24 from 0.21 then to 0.47 followed by 0.54, 0.65, 0.78 and it currently is at 0.88 as he is on pace for 72 points. His shots on goal are at 3.4 per game and he is on pace for 38 goals, which would eclipse his career-high of 26. He has been a fixture on the first unit of the power play since 2021-22.
MDP – Kirill Kaprizov/Filip Gustavsson
Kaprizov should be a 50-goal scorer and get 100 points every season. Right now, he has five goals and 15 points in 17 games, on pace for 24 goals and 48 assists in 82 games. Like McDavid, Kaprizov's even-strength production has cratered a little. He is still producing shots on goal at 3.6 per game, which is only slightly down from 3.9 in 2022-23.
After posting a record of 22-9-7 in 39 games in 2022-23, Filip Gustavsson was being counted on for 50-55 games and 25-30 wins in 2023-24. So far in nine games, his record is 2-4-2 with a save percentage of 88.2 and a GSAA of negative 5.97. Goaltending is hurting the Wild this year.
Nashville Predators
MVP – Filip Forsberg
There is always a bit of trepidation in picking Filip Forsberg in any hockey pool as he hasn't played more than 69 games in a season since 2016-17. So far so good as he has played all 16 games to date, putting up seven goals and 12 assists for a 97-point pace. In 2021-22 he had a career-high 42 goals and 42 assists in 84 games.
Ryan O'Reilly has had a great start as well with 15 points in 16 games, which was not expected.
MDP – Juuse Saros
Since the beginning of the 2020-21 season, Juuse Saros has won 92 of 167 games and has never dipped below a save percentage of 91.8 or a GSAA of 20.72. In 2023-24 he has a record of 4-9-0 with a save percentage of 89.2 and a GSAA of negative 3.98. The Predators are not the team they have been in recent years, so this doesn't all fall on the shoulders of Saros.
San Jose Sharks
MVP – Tomas Hertl
Hertl is a very good player on a very bad team who has consistently put up a 60-point over the last five years. In 2023-24, he has 11 points in 17 games and is on pace for 53 points. His production has suffered a little but unless you are in a pool that includes plus/minus, he hasn't hurt you that much.
If you own any players from the San Jose Sharks, they are more than likely not helping you win your pool this year.
MDP – Kevin Labanc/Filip Zadina
Labanc had a bit of a comeback season in 2022-23 with 15 goals and 18 assists in 72 games after playing just 21 games in 2021-22. There were rumors that the Sharks were going to send him to the minors and put him on waivers at the beginning of 2023-24 but he has dressed for 12 games and been a healthy scratch for five games so far. He has just two assists.
Zadina was drafted 6th overall in 2018, one pick ahead of Quinn Hughes. He is in his breakout window this season, but the window is bolted quite tightly as he has five points in 17 games while being minus 15. Bookended between two goals in his first three games and two assists in his last game, he managed just one point in 13 games.
Seattle Kraken
MVP – Eeli Tolvanen
If we included multi-category pools, Eeli Tolvanen is a bit of a surprise so far. He has 12 points in 19 games which is on pace for 52 points, but he also has 38 hits and 25 blocks, which puts him in range as a rare forward who could reach 100 hits and 100 blocks in a season. Right now, he is on pace for 150/100.
MDP – Matty Beniers
Beniers had a bit of a nightmare start to his sophomore campaign, not scoring his first goal until his 14th game and only having three assists after 11 games. After 24 goals and 57 points as a rookie, it was expected that Beniers would continue to progress. Currently he has three goals and seven assists in 19 games and is on pace for 43 points. The good news is that he has three goals and four assists in his past eight games.
St. Louis Blues
MVP – Jordan Binnington/Robert Thomas
Binnington has played below average since the 2020-21 season, but it seems like he has got his game back to a level that the Blues need to have any chance for the playoffs this year. He has a record of 5-5-1 with a save percentage of 92.2 and a GSAA of 7.18. He has been keeping the low-scoring Blues in games.
With the Blues currently sit 26th in the NHL in goals for per game, Robert Thomas has been the brightest light on the roster. He has elevated his shots per game to 2.4 after never being above 1.6 in his career. He has six goals and 11 assists in 17 games and is on pace for 82 points. Thomas is even on pace to shatter his career-high in hits (15) and is on pace to crack 20.
MDP – Kevin Hayes
Hayes has had a very slow start to his tenure with the Blues. He has seven points in his first 17 games and is on pace for just 34 points after having 54 points in 2022-23. His ice time has dipped from 17:34 to 14:32 and his shots per game have decreased from 2.6 to 1.4.
Vancouver Canucks
MVP – Quinn Hughes
I mentioned Hughes while talking about Cale Makar above, but as well as J.T. Miller, Elias Pettersson and Thatcher Demko have played, Hughes has been a step above them. He has an otherworldly seven goals and 21 assists in 18 games, which puts him on pace for 30 goals and 128 points. He has raised his shots per game from 2.0 to 3.1 and has a shooting percentage of 12.5 (which should come down). The PDO reversion has started to kick in for the Canucks over the last five games, during which Hughes still has two goals and five assists despite being a minus three.
MDP – Conor Garland
It's hard to fault Conor Garland for his lack of production as he puts the effort in on a nightly basis. He has seen his ice time dip to just over 13 minutes after being above 15 per game in 2022-23. He has just two goals and three assists in 18 games and is on pace for 23 points. He rarely penetrates inside the danger area inside the faceoff circles when he has the puck. I'm not sure where the turnaround in production is going to come from.
Vegas Golden Knights
MVP – William Karlsson
Since his unexpected breakout with Vegas in 2017-18 where he had 43 goals and 35 assists, Karlsson has settled into a 15-20 goal and 30-35 assist pace for the past five seasons, but he has also battled some injuries. He has started 2023-24 with nine goals and 11 assists in 19 games, which is a 36-goal and 50-assist pace. He has raised his shots per game from 2.0 to 2.4 but has also seen his shooting percentage go to 20.0, with his career average being 12.7. Having said that, he did manage a 23.4 shooting percentage when he posted his career-high of 43 goals.
MDP – Ivan Barbashev
After the playoffs that Barbashev had in 2022-23 where he had 18 points in 22 games while putting up 64 hits, I had high expectations for him in 2023-24. In 19 games, he has just four goals and two assists with 34 hits. He has seen his ice time go from 16:45 to 14:41.
Winnipeg Jets
MVP – Kyle Connor
Connor leads the NHL in goals with 14 after his first 17 games. Connor had 47 goals in 2021-22 when he averaged 4.0 shots per game and had a shooting percentage of 14.8. That dipped to 3.3/g and 11.7% in 2022-23, where he had a disappointing 32 goals. In 2023-24, he saw 4.1/g and had a shooting percentage of 20.3. He has a chance at 50 goals and is also on pace for 106 points.
MDP – Nikolaj Ehlers/Connor Hellebuyck
Ehlers was battling some injuries in pre-season that carried over into the regular season, but his slow start with just five points in his first 13 games went beyond that. He has three goals and one assist in his past four games and nine points in 17 games, so perhaps he has rounded the corner.
Hellebuyck carried the Jets in 2022-23, but the Jets have carried him in 2023-24. He has a record of 8-4-1 but has seen his save percentage dip to 89.7 and his GSAA is a negative 2.3. Hellebuyck has never had a year with a save percentage under 90.7 and hasn't had a negative GSAA since 2016-17. His last two starts were quality starts and were both wins.
Thanks for reading and if you have any questions or players you'd like me to look at please message or follow me on Twitter @gampbler15.