Ramblings: World Juniors Opening Day Notes; Reader Questions on Centre Decisions & Whether to Replace Levi (Dec 27)

Alexander MacLean

2023-12-27

With no NHL games, we're going to run through some World Juniors thoughts and then jump to a couple of reader questions.

In the early game yesterday, Slovakia showed that they need to be taken seriously this year, with a convincing 6-2 win over the Czechs. Servac Petrovsky (MIN), Filip Mesar (MTL), and Maxim Strbak (BUF) were the three most noticeable for the Slovaks in the game, each hitting the scoresheet at least once. Filip Mesar was a first round pick in 2022, and was panned to have a slightly disappointing post-draft campaign as he adjusted to the OHL. He has been a lot better of late, and looks to be one of those whose stock was already fairly high, but will continue to rise with an excellent tournament.

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The Canadians took care of business against a Finnish squad that looked to be relying a little too much on goaltender Niklas Kokko. The 5-2 score is a little misleading though, as two Canadian goals on one Finnish goal were scored with the Finnish net empty.

Nate Danielson had points on the first two goals of the game, with a goal off his pants, and then a nice feed to Owen Allard in the slot for the second goal. The projected first-overall pick for the 2024 draft, Macklin Celebrini, got in on the fun with an empty net goal as well, and looked dangerous throughout the game.

Noteworthy for another recent first-round-pick, Matthew Wood saw only six minutes of ice time overall, and was benched for much of the third period. He has lots of talent, but there is also a lot of development still to come before he can be an impact player at the NHL level.

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Norway managed to hold the USA to a 0-0 score through the first half of the game, but the second-half of the second period was all USA as they put the game away. Gavin Brindley scored two goals for the Americans, and was 13th on our Dobber Prospects ranking before the 2023 draft where he was taken early in the second round by the Blue Jackets. I nabbed him 18th overall in my dynasty league prospect draft this summer and remain high on him.

Goalie Trey Augustine stopped 22/23 shots, and the only one that got by him was a short-handed breakaway.

Plenty of other Americans looked good, and they are likely the tournament favourites. It will be fun to watch their next few games against some stronger competition.

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The Sweden win was overshadowed by Elias Salomonsson getting a game misconduct less than 30 seconds into the game. We'll see if there is any additional discipline, and if he misses any more games.

The first goal of the game was a Buffalo connection with Anton Wahlberg tipping in a point shot from linemate Noah Ostlund. Not that Buffalo needs any more top prospects in the system, but these two both could be middle-sixers for the team as they cruise through their championship window that is just starting to peak open.

Felix Unger-Sorum had an excellent game as well with a goal and an assist on one of Filip Bystedt's tallies, and the Canes prospect continues to show why he is one of the most under-appreciated NHL prospects out there. He made some noise at the Hurricanes training camp, and may be tough to leave off the roster again in 2024. If you're looking for a dark horse NHL regular next year at this stage, he makes a decent bet.

Recent first round selections Jonathan Lekkerimakki and Theo Lindstein also picked up two points each. Sweden is a deep team, and may have the second-best roster on paper after the Americans.

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Rick Roos needs a couple more questions for his weekly mailbag running next week. He does the most in-depth dives you are going to get for an answer, so take advantage. There are two ways to send in questions (1) private messaging “rizzeedizzee” via the DobberHockey Forums, or emailing [email protected] with “Roos Mailbag” as the subject line.

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Friendly PSA that the Canucks only have one game this week, and don't play at all between December 28th and January 2nd.

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Meanwhile, I took a few reader questions, and while I may give shorter answers than Rick, I like to think they're still the right answers.

We're not starting it off easy eh?

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Dobber's guide from this summer has them listed in terms of upside as:

Adam Fantilli, Quinton Byfield, Nico Hischier

However, sorting them by their three-year-peak (3YP – Reasonably expected output over their three peak NHL seasons), we get this:

Nico Hischier, Quinton Byfield, Adam Fantilli

All that to say, is that before the season, Fantilli was viewed to have the highest ceiling, while Hischier had the highest floor. Since then, Byfield has put up 23 points in 29 games, Fantilli has 19 in 34, and Hischier has 15 in 21. Keep in mind, Fantilli is still in his rookie season, and Byfield is still only 21 himself, while Nico is about to turn 25.

The here and the now certainly matter, but what we have seen from Byfield this year with the overall production and the flashes of the elite player he can be, I think he is the best combination of production now, ultimate high floor, and possible superstar production as a ceiling. It's tough to only be able to keep one, but Byfield is my pick of this litter.

Question from Jeff: I'm running Devon Levi as one of my three goalies right now, but Jonathan Quick, Jacob Markstrom, and Pyotr Kochetkov are all available to be added. Which is the best option for the rest of the season for a league with W, GAA, Sv%, and SO?

I love Devon Levi, but he's too young and Buffalo's team defence isn't organized enough in front of him to be able to keep him at the level he would need to be to be considered the best option here. With the stats you have listed, and assuming it's a H2H league and not Roto, the average stats are more important than the volume ones. Quick has been fantastic all season, Kochetkov has been hot of late when given the reigns, and Markstrom is the only volume starter of the group.

The first question you need to ask with these categories is whether you need a third goalie at all. With two good goalies you should be able to do well in the average categories, and hopefully still keep pace with wins a shutouts. If you need to make the swap to add a third goalie, and volume is a must, then it has to be Markstrom despite the iffy average stats as a result of the volume he is guaranteed versus the other two. If you don't necessarily need volume, I think I would run with Kochetkov for now, understanding that he may end up back in the AHL at some point if both Frederik Andersen and Antti Raanta make their way back. His peripheral numbers in addition to the higher volume than Quick makes him more valuable to you moving forward.

There is a situation where Quick would be the play though, and that's if moves are limited, and you don't want to have to make another goalie swap later in the season. There's less risk with him.

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It sounds crazy to drop Malkin, but I'm assuming this league is shallow enough that you have to cut your dead-weight to survive, considering dropping either is an option.

Thus far, Thomas (33 games) is outscoring Malkin (32 games) 13 goals to 11, and 37 points to Malkin's 27. As you mention, Malkin does have a PIM advantage, but it's also a more variable category, so there's less of a guarantee with it.

In looking into the two, I was expecting Thomas' shot volume to be way below Malkin's but it is actually fairly similar, with Malkin only ahead 83-72. Given that Thomas still hasn't really started clicking on the power play yet, I think he's the much safer bet to win out on production the rest of the way. Malkin is a high-upside piece though, and I wonder if you could package either Thomas or Malkin with a winger for an upgrade there instead of an outright drop.

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I'm going to keep tracking Jakub Vrana for you whether you like it or not, and so far he has two goals and two assists in four AHL games. He's keeping the door open to be promoted back to the NHL level this season.

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See you next Wednesday! You can find me on Twitter/X here, or BlueSky here if you have any fantasy hockey questions or comments.  

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UPCOMING GAMES

Dec 22 - 12:12 NYR vs CAR
Dec 22 - 17:12 T.B vs FLA
Dec 22 - 17:12 UTA vs ANA
Dec 22 - 17:12 WSH vs L.A
Dec 22 - 20:12 EDM vs OTT
Dec 22 - 20:12 COL vs SEA

Starting Goalies

Top Skater Views

  Players Team
PATRIK LAINE MTL
LANE HUTSON MTL
JACKSON LACOMBE ANA
ALEX TURCOTTE L.A
DYLAN GUENTHER UTA

Top Goalie Profile Views

  Players Team
JESPER WALLSTEDT MIN
MACKENZIE BLACKWOOD COL
KAREL VEJMELKA UTA
LEEVI MERILAINEN OTT
FILIP GUSTAVSSON MIN

LINE COMBOS

  Frequency BOS Players
22.7 PAVEL ZACHA DAVID PASTRNAK MORGAN GEEKIE
18.8 BRAD MARCHAND ELIAS LINDHOLM CHARLIE COYLE
17.5 COLE KOEPKE MARK KASTELIC JOHN BEECHER

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