Welcome back my Cap-friendlies! I hope that everyone had a relaxing and enjoyable Holiday Break! For today I wanted to look at some names that will be due up for a pay raise, or maybe a slight decrease in their current AAV? A couple of these names we might hear come up more frequently as we approach the end of the season and into the summer, just to put it on everyone's radar on what we could potentially see happen come July 1^st.

Data from Cap Friendly.

Elias Pettersson – C/LW – Vancouver – 25 years old
Contract: $7.35 – One year remaining

Okay, so maybe Elias Pettersson has been talked about more with his upcoming RFA, but not as much as I'd anticipated. The last time he was up for free agency I seem to remember there being more speculation surrounding his situation than this time around, as well as the relief for Vancouver fans when he signed his current three-year, $22M contract. Maybe it's because this Canucks club is in a far better spot than the ones he was previously on? Or it might just be because there isn't as much worry this time around? I'd lean that it's because the club is playing well, remember winning solves a LOT of dilemmas.  

I can't say I was impressed with where Pettersson's game was going during the COVID season but the past couple of seasons he has easily become one of the league's top players, and that even reflects in just how early he was taken off the board in most of my fantasy leagues. This season his even strength shooting percentage is at a career high, while the rest of his advanced numbers also look impressive. What has maybe impressed me the most though is just how well he has worked on the ice with different wingers the Canucks put up on the top line and it's that play making ability that makes him a special player. So, what does his next contract look like? I'd almost have a hard time seeing it be another bridge deal like his last contract, but maybe look more down the lines of what other centers in the league have recently gotten? I first looked at one of my favorite offseason extensions in Sebastian Aho (eight years x $9.75M) as well as Brayden Point (eight years x $9.5M), as starting points. Taking away all advanced stats aside and just looking at pure point production, Sebastian Aho has never gone over 90 points, Brayden Point has done it twice (and have to add here stellar postseason production), but Pettersson is the only one of the three that has gone over 100 points, as he accomplished this last season. With that I think the term makes sense at eight years, but I think this is a $10M player when it's all said and done. The Canucks will likely have around $30M in cap space this summer and I think most of that will go toward a Pettersson deal that looks like 7-8 years at $10M AAV. 

Steven Stamkos – C – Tampa Bay – 33 years old
Contract: $8.5M – One year remaining – NMC

Shooting numbers are slightly down, assist numbers are slightly up, but the one number here that I'm looking at for Steven Stamkos is his age at 33 years old. First, I just have to say as a fellow 33-year-old that I both think Stamer and I have plenty of great years left; dare I say we're just now entering our respected primes?

Joking aside, this summer Stamkos and the Lightning failed to reach an extension agreement with quotes coming out that Stamkos was "disappointed" that a deal could not be reached and that's not nothing, I do think there is some smoke there but whether or not there's fire remains to be seen until the two sides meet again. Look, I have a hard time not seeing Stamkos in a Bolts sweater, but I have a hard time seeing plenty of stars who have been with their current club long-term going someplace else, but it happens. For Stamkos though what does a deal look like in Tampa? The Bolts are in a decent cap situation going forward and I have a hard time seeing a smart club like Tampa throwing that away to give Stamkos a deal that's worth more than he's currently at. That said, would three years at $7M be outrageous? Sure, you could maybe push your hand if your Stamkos for free agency but just looking at where I think the NHL landscape will be headed this offseason, A) Who is going to give you more than that? And B) What club would be able to offer anywhere north of $7 that's competing for a Cup perennially?

Ultimately, I do think if Stamkos were to sign here it would be somewhere in the ballpark of $7M per year that takes him somewhere near his age-37 or -38 season. Tampa has looked to already have signed who they want long-term on this club, but I don't think this is a situation of a potential low-ball offer that forces Stamkos out given what he means to the organization and the level he's currently playing at.

Matthew Beniers – C – Seattle – 21 years old
Contract: $897K – One year remaining – ELC

I'm just going to put this on everyone's radar here that the Kraken might make the first move in the offseason and just go ahead and sign Beniers to a new contract now that his current one is up. I can't see why seven years at $8M wouldn't be on the table here for Seattle? The only player that they have signed at any length with a higher AAV is Vince Dunn who will have three years remaining at $7.35M.

I have read that Ron Francis is leery about signing players to larger contracts but let's not make this one complicated here. You have an excellent young center you can really build something sustainable with, if this was an NHL video game you make this deal every time.

*For continued fantasy news and notes, follow me on Twitter @ndySanz.