The 2024 Midseason Guide is now available! You'll find second-half projections, sleepers, advanced stats, historical trends, prospects you need to know, and much more. For more information and to make your purchase, click here.

Organizing and compiling one of these fantasy guides is no small feat, and it can't be done alone. That is why I owe some thank you's. First, to the Dobber writers who contributed significant portions: Mike Clifford, Alex MacLean, Tom Collins, Brennan DeSouza, Grant Campbell, and Ryan Brudner. Also, Peter Harling and his team at Dobber Prospects: Victor Nuno, Pat Quinn, Alex Wyatt, Curtis Rines, Aaron Itovitch, and Ben Gehrels. Thank you all for writing quality pieces, submitting them in a reasonable time, and accepting feedback.

A huge thank you to Mario Prata for his work in organizing the master document and keeping me accountable to the deadlines in the nicest possible way. And of course, Dobber for giving me the opportunity to take on this project, and for his help on the release date.

We hope the Midseason Guide is quality information that you can use to help win your league and/or plan for the future.

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Alex Ovechkin had been a game-time decision for his previous two games, so it shouldn't have been that much of a surprise that he missed Saturday's game with the lower-body injury that he has been battling. I'd knocked three games off Ovechkin's games-played projection in the Midseason Guide for that reason. Now that he has finally missed a game, I'm wondering if I had underestimated that number. Yes, in the guide you can view games-played projections, which factor into the points projections.

I also have Ovie heating up in the second half, as he has seven points over his last six games after a sluggish (by his standards) six goals and 20 points in his first 33 games. Age catches up with everyone, and the second half could be telling as to whether it finally has with Ovie. He needs 65 goals to pass Wayne Gretzky for the all-time goals record. To do that by the time his contract expires at the end of the 2025-26 season (when he'll be 40), Ovechkin will need to score at a 26-goal pace over two and a half seasons. He could still make it happen, but it's definitely not a sure thing.

Adam Fox scored a pair of goals for the Rangers, giving him four goals in his last four games. He's taken at least three shots in three of those four games. One of those goals had laser-like precision.

#HockeyPorn pic.twitter.com/kMA9ffmcBt

— Spittin' Chiclets (@spittinchiclets) January 13, 2024

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Those who drafted Tim Stutzle (Yahoo ADP 30) likely assumed he'd easily be a point-per-game player. Yet with a recent slump, he'd fallen back below 1 PT/GP. Stutzle climbed back to that mark on Saturday with a four-assist effort, giving him 38 points in 38 games. Stutzle had been held pointless in his previous four games. He is also still without a goal in his last nine games and has just seven goals this season after scoring 39 goals last season.

I made sure to move Stutzle up to exactly a point per game in the Midseason Guide with a projection of 45 points over his last 45 games (published on Friday – he's not playing 83 games if you're adding 45 to 38). Still, I'd seen preseason projections for Stutzle for as high as 100 points, and I highly doubt that will happen now under defensive-minded Jacques Martin. Someone in one league told me they would have drafted Stutzle ahead of Elias Pettersson after I picked Pettersson in a draft. I didn't believe Stutzle would finish ahead of Pettersson in points then, and I most definitely don't believe it now.

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Just before he was officially announced as being voted in for the All-Star Game, Thatcher Demko put the finishing touches on a 26-save shutout in Buffalo. After the game, Demko was temporarily tied with two other goalies for the league lead in shutouts with four (until one of them recorded a shutout later in the day… more on him shortly).

Earlier in the season I mentioned that Demko was playing like an elite goalie, and someone on social media tried to correct me by saying "Demko IS elite." I'll revisit that by saying that his ratios (2.47 GAA, .918 SV%) aren't quite elite yet, but he's a top-5 goalie in terms of quality starts (18) and goals saved above average (14.21). We could argue semantics all day, but the takeaway is that you should be starting Demko regardless of the opponent. If your league counts wins, Demko (22 W) only trails Alexandar Georgiev in that category.

Here is one of Demko's saves in a game where he could have earned all three stars himself.

Thatcher Demko makes his best save of the game!

🎥: Sportsnet | NHL pic.twitter.com/eq2nBiss0v

— CanucksArmy (@CanucksArmy) January 13, 2024

After recording 3+ points in three of his previous four games, Pettersson was held without a point on Saturday. However, he tied his single-game season high in both hits (4) and blocks (3). If you don't watch the Canucks much, Petey is a much better defensive forward that he gets credit for.

By the way, five Canucks are going to the All-Star Game. Regardless of what you think of fan voting, Pettersson, J.T. Miller, Brock Boeser, Quinn Hughes, and Demko are all deserving all-stars. That's the kind of season the Canucks have had.

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The good news for the Wild is that Kirill Kaprizov returned to the lineup on Saturday after missing the past couple weeks with broken ribs. The bad news for the Wild is that they were blanked 6-0 by Connor Ingram and the Coyotes. At least Kaprizov took five shots, which is a good sign as his shot per game total (3.3 SOG/GP) is down from last season (3.9 SOG/GP). But as was reported in the guide, Kaprizov's number of shot attempts this season are similar to last season. More shots that reach the net should lead to more goals.

Ingram is now the league leader in shutouts with five. That's not what anyone would have expected before the season, but there are a lot more surprises in goalie league leaders than skater league leaders every season. Ingram was drafted in about 2% of Yahoo leagues, which means that a lot of teams added their best statistical goalie from the waiver wire. For every Connor Hellebuyck, there's a Connor Ingram.

Nick Bjugstad broke a long goal slump (16 games, to be exact) with a hat trick against his hometown team in Minnesota. Bjugstad doesn't get a lot of attention in fantasy leagues, but he's caught fire recently with five points over his last three games and 15 shots over his last two games. He's been quietly receiving second-line and second-unit power-play minutes for an improved Coyotes team.

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Some goalie streaks running parallel to team streaks, all in the Pacific Division:

The Kraken have now won nine games in a row, with Joey Daccord winning eight of those games for a personal eight-game win streak. Since taking over from the injured Philipp Grubauer on December 9, Daccord has a 10-1-2 record with a 1.60 GAA and .949 SV% (not including the game he entered in relief). There's a saying that a starter shouldn't lose their job because of injury, but I'd be willing to bet that Daccord remains as the Seattle starter once Grubauer returns. 

The Oilers have now won ten games in a row, with Stuart Skinner winning seven of those games for a personal seven-game win streak. Over that span, Skinner has a 1.41 GAA and .951 SV% with all seven of those starts being quality starts. Remember when the Oilers were struggling? They're now tied with Seattle in points for the second wild-card spot while holding three games in hand. For the season, Skinner has now salvaged his GSAA (goals saved above average) to nearly zero, meaning that he has offset his awful first quarter (-10.78 GSAA) with an outstanding second quarter (10.53 GSAA).

The Kings have now lost eight games in a row, with Cam Talbot taking the loss on seven of them. The silver lining is that only four of those seven losses are in regulation, and he has four quality starts compared to one really bad start over that losing streak. Unfortunately, the really bad start came on Saturday against the Red Wings, where he was pulled after allowing five goals on 27 shots. Talbot is currently in the top 10 in goalie games played (29 GP), which is not something I thought would happen given his recent injury history. Yet I wonder if wear and tear will be a factor for the 36-year-old Talbot going forward. With Pheonix Copley out for the season, the Kings' next option is Big Save Dave Rittich, who has shown surprisingly well in limited action (4 GP, 1.49 GAA, .930 SV%).

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On the subject of NHL EDGE stats that I found out about recently:

Evan Bouchard has fired 60 shots with a maximum speed of 90 mph or over, which is nearly double the next-highest player at that speed (Ovechkin with 35). He's one of four defensemen with at least a point-per-game average this season (40 PTS in 39 GP). I told you that he was worth reaching for in drafts if you considered his production after Tyson Barrie was traded and what was possible with the Oilers power play. Too bad I didn't take my own advice, but I think a few of my league competitors read my work.

Three of those four point-per-game d-men were drafted in the top 12 of the first round in 2018 (Bouchard, Hughes and Noah Dobson). That might go down as an all-time draft for defensemen, as Rasmus Dahlin was picked first overall that year.

Bouchard unleashed one of his bombs for an overtime game-winner for the Oilers.

Thanks to Evan Bouchard's OT winner, the Oilers set a franchise record with their 10th straight win

Connor McDavid also passes Glenn Anderson for the 4th most points in Oilers history pic.twitter.com/oYIHbTecJk

— Sportsnet Stats (@SNstats) January 14, 2024

In terms of shots timed at 100 mph or over, only Victor Hedman has more than Radko Gudas (3). The Anaheim defenseman is known more for his propensity to hit, but the shot speed shows how physically powerful he is. After back-to-back seasons with 300 hits (and likely a third if the 2020-21 season was a full one), Gudas is only on pace for 200 hits this season. However, he is blocking more shots for the Ducks while also providing a marginal increase in offense.

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Cam Atkinson scored a pair of goals on six shots in the Flyers' win in Winnipeg. The goals were Atkinson's first in 27 games, which dates all the way back to mid-November. Atkinson had only chipped in six assists during that span, even being a healthy scratch at one point. I'd picked up Atkinson on two different rosters early in the season after a quick start (3 G in his first 4 GP), so I subsequently dropped him from two different rosters using the "what have you done for me lately" approach.

John Tortorella seems to healthy scratch more players than the average coach. We know that Torts doesn't have a problem with being assertive, but it could also be related to the Flyers having many good-but-not-great forwards. Based on that, Travis Konecny seems to be the only must-start forward on this team.

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Blake Coleman is on some kind of heater right now. With a goal and an assist on Saturday, Coleman now has three consecutive multipoint games, as well as 24 points over his last 18 games. After five consecutive seasons of finishing between 30 and 40 points, Coleman is already one point shy of his career high of 38 points set last season. The two-time 20-goal scorer is on pace to reach 71 points. Yes, I listed him as on pace to slow down in the second half to 60 points, but he's banking enough points right now to bet the over on that. He should be a sell-high anyway, unless you really think he'll still be scoring at this pace a month from now. He's a 32-year-old with a career 10.2 SH% who is shooting 18.4% this season.

Nathan MacKinnon (14-21-35)
William Nylander (9-19-28)
Nikita Kucherov (11-17-28)
Sebastian Aho (11-17-28)
Connor McDavid (8-17-25)

Those are the only dudes with more points the last 5 1/2 weeks (since Dec. 7) than Blake Coleman (13-11-24).

Not bad company.#RustyColemanHigh5

— Darren Haynes (@DarrenWHaynes) January 14, 2024

Since the Flames are in the no-man's land of not in a playoff spot but not in a full rebuild either, Jacob Markstrom's name has surfaced in trade rumors. Markstrom looked impressive in making 32 saves in a 3-1 win in Vegas. Only Semyon Varlamov has a better high-danger save percentage than Markstrom (.859 SV%), and Markstrom has played nearly double the number of games that Varlamov has. Markstrom also has five wins and six quality starts in his last six games, and he's rebounded from last season to re-establish himself as one of the league's better goalies this season. I think the chances of the Flames trading Markstrom by the deadline are low, even if their chances of making the playoffs are less than 50%.  

Jack Eichel did not play on Saturday and is expected to "miss a little bit of time" while he and the Golden Knights await a diagnosis. I reduced his games-played projection in the Midseason Guide by four games because he is a Band-Aid Boy, but that may not have been enough. Eichel has not reached 70 games in a season since 2018-19. He might have been able to during the COVID-shortened 2019-20 season, but the following season was his last in Buffalo and the infamous neck injury controversy.

Back to games-played projections. They might not seem as important as point projections, but they factor into season-long or even half-season-long projections similar to how a team's game total can affect a player's weekly value. In other words, you need to check whether a player is a Band-Aid Boy. Injury projections aside, below is a list of the remaining games by team, which might help a little in your add, drop, or trade decisions (from the Frozen Tools Schedule Planner).

Players like Bouchard, Stutzle, and Ovechkin (assuming he is healthy) are at an advantage here. Eichel clearly isn't. A little thing, but use every edge that you can get.

Team	GP	Home	Away	B2B	Light Day
OTT	44	20	24	10	13
EDM	43	23	20	8	18
L.A	43	22	21	6	19
N.J	42	21	21	7	16
TOR	42	21	21	7	15
WSH	42	19	23	6	19
ARI	41	19	22	5	22
NYR	41	22	19	5	19
PIT	41	21	20	7	17
STL	41	20	21	6	16
ANA	40	18	22	7	18
BOS	40	23	17	5	12
CAR	40	22	18	7	14
DAL	40	18	22	6	11
DET	40	19	21	4	13
FLA	40	22	18	5	13
MIN	40	19	21	8	16
MTL	40	19	21	5	7
NYI	40	19	21	5	15
SEA	40	21	19	5	18
WPG	40	18	22	4	18
BUF	39	20	19	5	14
CBJ	39	17	22	7	13
CGY	39	23	16	3	12
CHI	39	21	18	5	20
COL	39	18	21	5	17
NSH	39	17	22	4	10
PHI	39	21	18	5	11
S.J	39	21	18	7	10
VAN	39	22	17	3	16
VGK	39	19	20	4	17
T.B	38	19	19	5	9

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