Hello and welcome back to Geek of the Week! In this week's article, I am going to analyze a stat that I usually don't love to include in my multicategory leagues, but it's still widely used: plus-minus. In general, players can be hurt in this category based on their teammates' poor play, but this stat is still quite predictable and you can gain an edge in your leagues if you can properly predict it. The general rule of expecting negative plus-minus from players on terrible teams and positive plus-minus from players on elite teams is not a bad heuristic, but I am going to dive deeper. I'll examine a few players who might be over- or under-valued in this category and determine where I think they will end up the rest of the season.

The statistics mentioned are the player's 82-game pace and do not include Sunday's games.

Brenden Dillon – 11 Goals, 17 Assists, 28 Points, +30, 80 SOG, 209 Hits, 120 BLKs, 104 PIM

Dillon has been a great defenseman to own in multicategory leagues, due to his penalty minutes, hits, and blocks, and his current plus-minus rating of plus-16. He is one of the best teams in the league at even strength, which has led to his strong plus-minus. The age-old heuristic of "good team = good Plus-Minus" would have worked for you so far. As he isn't necessarily a league leader in hits or blocks, his plus-minus makes him rosterable so far in multicat leagues that count it.

The main stat to examine is how different the on-ice goals differential (shown by plus-minus) is to the expected goal differential (AKA expected plus-minus). Dillon's expected plus-minus is only +4. This means that either he his teammates are very skilled and able to score more goals than expected while on the ice, or they are getting lucky (or a combination of both).

Dillon alone has scored six goals, yet only has 1.44 expected goals. He is not the skilled player that will consistently score goals above expected, so his six goals, alongside his 14% shooting percentage, is likely due to luck. His teammates shooting percentage at even strength while he's on the ice is also fairly high at a combined 11.75%. Both him and his teammates are likely to see regression in their even strength goals for.

Dillon's great plus-minus are likely due to some luck. We should not expect him to continue to have these great numbers the rest of the season. I would expect him to finish closer to plus-20 rather than his pace of plus-30.

Filip Hronek – 6 Goals, 59 Assists, 65 Points, +59, 157 SOG, 62 Hits, 75 BLKs, 53 PIM,

Hronek is greatly benefitting from playing on one of the best teams in the league. He and his D partner Quinn Hughes lead the league in plus-minus. Good on the Canucks for turning things around, but is their even strength production sustainable?

The difference in plus-minus and expected plus-minus is the largest in the league for Hronek and Hughes. Hronek's current plus-minus of 31 is 30 more than expected. Yes, there is only one more even strength xGF than xGA with Hronek on the ice. This stems from his teammates shooting at an insanely high percentage of 15.7% at even-strength when he's on the ice. This includes his partner Hughes shooting at 12%, Elias Pettersson shooting at 20%, JT Miller shooting at 20%, and Brock Boeser shooting at 22%. These are all great shooters, but these percentages are not sustainable, especially at even-strength. They are bound to start scoring less.

Unfortunately for Hronek, this means fewer plus games, and likely fewer assists. His current pace of 65 points and +59 is not sustainable. This would be a good point to sell high on Hronek. I would expect him to finish the season with around 18 points, and a plus-5 rating in the Canucks' final 36 games. This would put his 82-game season total to 54 points and a plus-35 rating. Still an amazing career season for Hronek, but mainly coming from games already played.

Timo Meier – 24 Goals, 21 Assists, 55 Points, -51, 233 SOG, 84 Hits, 43 BLKs, 21 PIM       

Many who have owned Meier in the past expected negative plus-minus numbers when he was on San Jose. But now as a Devil, fantasy managers likely expected his plus-minus numbers to be in the positives. Well at minus-20 through just 31 games, he has disappointed greatly in this category, alongside all other categories where he has taken a hit.

Timo's expected plus minus is only half of his minus-20, at minus-10. Still not great, but not as terrible as its been. His linemates of late are Michael McLeod and Dawson Mercer. These are not elite shooters. His teammates' even-strength shooting percentage while he's on the ice is super low at 7.5%.

As of now, Meier may be a minus player still, but not as bad as an 82-game pace of minus-51. When Jack Hughes returns from injury, things should turn around for Meier as he may be paired with much better linemates. I wouldn't be surprised to see Meier as a plus player when this occurs, finishing the season right around where his plus-minus is now.

Hope you enjoyed! See you next week.

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