Geek of The Week: True Value Goalies and Fantasy Playoff Targets

Ryan Brudner

2024-03-10

Hello and welcome back to Geek of the Week! In this week's article, I am going to help you plan for your fantasy playoff matchups by tackling the toughest position to predict in fantasy hockey: the goaltender.

Now if you're sitting pretty with three solid starters on strong teams that you are happy starting in every matchup, this article may not be relevant to you. Given that there may be only 1-3 goalies in the league that I'd be comfortable starting night in-night out, there are likely not many of those fantasy teams out there. If you have taken a zeroG approach, or if your goalies have just disappointed you and you'd need some streaming help, the True Value Goalie Rankings alongside looking ahead at fantasy playoff schedules will reap us many benefits. If you want a recap of what the True Value Goalie Rankings and statistics are, please see this article.

Here are the updated True Value Rankings after 21 fantasy weeks:

Please note, these are not updated to account for stats accrued on Sunday March 10. As of Saturday, March 9, Tristan Jarry is credited with no Quality Week for Week 21; this could change with a strong or very poor game against Edmonton. As of Saturday March 9, Connor Ingram is credited with a Star Week for Week 21; this could change depending on his performance against Chicago.

You can access the full rankings here

A few goalies that stick out:

Jeremy Swayman

Currently ranked 4th on Yahoo in multicategory leagues, Swayman has had some stellar weeks with 7 Star Weeks (including this past week), and a Quality Week 70% of the time. These are great numbers! So why is Swayman all the way down at 14 on the True Value Goalie Rankings? Well, it is due to his high amount of Really Bad Weeks, way up at 25% of his active weeks. This is the highest among goalies with 6 or more Star Weeks. He's been great, but when he's not great – he's Really Bad. It is also worthy to note that all five of Swayman's Really Bad Weeks have been in the second half of the season. With Boston's fantasy playoff schedule yielding some high-scoring opponents, it is not clear what we would get from Swayman during the most important matchups of our fantasy season. Tread carefully.

Jordan Binnington

Binnington is way down at 17 in the Yahoo rankings, yet he is the 2nd best goalie this fantasy season according to the True Value Goalie Rankings. He is just above average in his cumulative stats like save percentage, goals against average and wins. Though, these just above average stats are reliable and consistent. He has had a Quality Week 81% of the time and has only had 1 Really Bad Week all season. He's shown he can be a consistent goalie for fantasy managers this season.

Connor Ingram

Currently sitting 7th in Yahoo's rankings on the season, Ingram has been a wonderful surprise that many zeroG folks have grabbed. PSA: He should not be relied upon for your fantasy playoffs! Ingram was smoking hot to start the season and earned the starting role on the Coyotes. Of his 8 Star Weeks, 5 came in the first 10 weeks of the season. He had 7 of his 12 Quality Weeks in this span and just 1 Really Bad Week. In the 11 fantasy weeks since then, he has 4 Really Bad Weeks, 5 Quality Weeks and 3 Star Weeks. With this inconsistent play, Karel Vejmelka has earned a few more starts of late and the Coyotes net is looking like more of a timeshare. Ingram can give you under-the-radar quality starts, but he has been very inconsistent lately. Don't trot him out there as a top 7 fantasy goaltender.

Fantasy Playoff Targets

Laurent Brossoit

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Season stats:17 GP, 11 Wins, 2.11 GAA, .924 sv%, 1 SO,

Value stats: 87.5% Quality Weeks, 37.5% Star Weeks, 12.5% Really Bad Weeks

This is my top target to pick up now to help you win your leagues. Yes, I am telling you to roster a backup goalie in your multicat leagues. Even in his limited starts and only 11 active weeks, he has provided plenty of quality weeks. He is 4th is QW%, 9th in SW% and has only picked up 2 Really Bad Weeks yielding a respectable 12.5% RBW%. Winnipeg has only given him 17 starts so far, usually on back-to-backs. But in stretches where they do not have a back-to-back, Connor Hellebuyck has gotten a rest after 2-4 starts. I am expecting Winnipeg to lean a little more on Brossoit moving forward letting Hellebuyck rest for the playoffs.

Winnipeg has an interesting schedule moving forward with 6 games alternating every other day from this Monday, March 11 to next Thursday, March 21, followed by a back-to-back on March 23 and March 24. At worst, I am expecting Winnipeg to give Hellebuyck a night off after three straight starts, leaving a juicy off-night matchup for Brossoit on Friday, March 15 against the Anaheim Ducks. If not the Ducks, he'll get the start on Sunday the 17th against the Blue Jackets. Either this or Brossoit actually gets two starts this week.

The next week, Brossoit should get the second half to the back-to-back and face Washington on Sunday the 24th. Brossoit should then get at least one start per week moving into the end of the fantasy playoffs and the end of the season. He has shown he can be a reliable fantasy asset, even with just one start a week. With these expected matchups, I'd be very happy to use a roster spot on Brossoit knowing he'll provide me with Quality Weeks.

Philipp Grubauer and Joey Daccord

Daccord has lost his outright starter's role, as Grubauer has taken a step toward reclaiming his net. Though Daccord has been a very consistent fantasy goalie, he may be in a timeshare moving forward. Daccord's ownership has dropped to 60%, while Grubauer's is sitting at 43% on Yahoo. I would expect both these goalies to get their opportunities as Seattle pushes to make the playoffs. Daccord is the more trustworthy of the two based on his Value stats (83% Quality Weeks, 27% Star Weeks, 11% Really Bad Weeks).

Looking ahead at Week 24, 25, and 26. Seattle has one of the juiciest set of matchups for fantasy goalies. In Week 24, they play Anaheim twice and Dallas. In Week 25, they play San Jose, Anaheim, and Los Angeles. In Week 26, their opponents read: San Jose, Dallas, St. Louis, Winnipeg, and Minnesota. With these juicy matchups, I would be looking to grab Daccord if he is dropped. If Daccord is taken, Grubauer should get enough of these easy matchups to yield great value. Hopefully he can handle them.

Hope you enjoyed. Follow me on X @fantasycheddar, where I will answer any questions you may have.

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