The NHL Playoffs are here! We have two games today with the New York Islanders in Carolina at 5PM ET and then Toronto is in Boston at 8PM ET. Tomorrow is a four-day game when things really get rolling. What a wonderful time of year.

Before we get to the playoff stuff, I just want to mention Jeff Carter's retirement. He finished his career with 442 goals and 409 assists, making him 1 of just 16 players with at least 400 of each since the 2005 lockout. From 2005-2017, he had 20 goals every year except 2006-07, managed one 80-point season, six 60-point seasons, and at least 200 shots nine times. He has two Stanley Cups, one Olympics gold medal, one World Junior championship, and one AHL championship. Just a very decorated career from a member of the famed 2003 NHL Draft.

*

Not great news for Kris Letang:

Sounds like Kris Letang could be looking at a major surgery.
— Josh Yohe (@JoshYohe_PGH) April 19, 2024

We'll see what it ends up being and we know very little right now, but that phrasing is ominous.

*

Good news for Noah Dobson and the Islanders:

Dobson taking part in line rushes with Romanov. #Isles
— Stefen Rosner (@stefen_rosner) April 19, 2024

Game 1 is on Saturday but he's certainly trending in the right direction.

Florida coach Paul Maurice said that Aaron Ekblad will also be ready for Game 1 of their series against Tampa Bay.

*

Alright, let's get to the postseason.

First, for those with playoff drafts, be sure to grab a copy of the 2024 Dobber Hockey Interactive Playoff Draft List! Ian Gooding put in tremendous work and it can be customized for individual leagues.

Secondly, the Dobber Hockey Experts' Panel is on the site for perusal. See where the editors and writers sit on individual series, Cup finalists, and the Conn Smythe Trophy.

Lastly, I want to quickly go series by series to give some thoughts on each matchup. Let's start with the East.

New York Islanders at Carolina Hurricanes

This is one of two Eastern series that is lopsided and it's heavily in Carolina's favour. Here are where various sources sit on the odds:

The Athletic – 80%
HockeyViz – 76%
MoneyPuck – 84.3%

Antti Raanta stopped getting regular starts for Carolina on December 15^th. From December 16^th onward, Carolina was third by all-strengths save percentage while being the only team in the league with a goal share over 60%. Their one big weakness this season was goaltending, but it has largely been very good for months now. If this team gets .910-.920 goaltending rather than .870-.890, they are a juggernaut.

This is a team that has historically had trouble scoring consistently, but adding Jake Guentzel to the top line has been a difference-maker: the new Carolina top line outshot the opposition 118-70 in their 182:52 together, scoring 17 goals. If they can score anywhere near a high-end rate like that, while having guys like Martin Necas, Andrei Svechnikov, and Teuvo Teravainen spread across their middle-6 lines, they're deep scoring-wise, and that's a terrifying prospect for any opponent.

By expected goals and actual goals against at 5-on-5, the Islanders were a top-10 team under coach Patrick Roy. The penalty kill still struggled – second-most-goals against per minute in the league under Roy – and they were a middle-of-the-road team by goals per minute. Both Semyon Varlamov and Ilya Sorokin can steal a series, and they'll need to do that for the Islanders to advance unless Carolina's goaltenders revert back to what they were in November.

Prediction: Carolina in 4

Washington Capitals at New York Rangers

This is the other lopsided matchup. Those same three sources are anywhere from 62-90% in New York's favour, which makes sense when you have the Presidents' Trophy winner against a team that was 27^th in the league by goal differential.

From an advanced stats perspective, a lot will be (and has been) made about New York's public expected goals numbers. Here's the thing: both Artemi Panarin and Mika Zibanejad have higher goals-for rates than expected goals-for rates for three years running. In that span at 5-on-5, the Rangers outscored their xG rates with Panarin on the ice by 14%, and by 7.9% with Zibanejad on the ice. The talent in the top-6 has regularly been able to outstrip their expected scoring rates, and that matters a lot.

The other is New York's usage of Jacob Trouba. He has struggled all season, and, at times, the team looked better defensively when he was out of the lineup. In fact, down the stretch, they used Adam Fox and Braden Schneider a bit more often in shutdown matchups. If they can hide Trouba in depth matchups, it could boost the defensive numbers of the team even more.

As for Washington, their hope is to do to New York what Montreal did to Washington in 2010: the goalie steals the series. Charlie Lindgren had a very good year and that is the sole reason the team is in the postseason. As he goes, so do the Capitals, and he'll need to be Vezina-calibre for at least four games if the Caps want to advance. If their goaltending is average-or-worse, they don't have the offence to make up the difference.

Prediction: New York Rangers in 5

Toronto Maple Leafs at Boston

Hello, old friend.

As a Habs fan with friends that are mostly Leafs fans and family that are mostly Bruins fans, I win no matter the outcome. I love that for me.

Toronto was not very good defensively in the second half: from January 11^th onward, they were 16^th by goals against per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 (and there was a sizable gap between 14^th and 15^th so they were closer to Anaheim than they were to the New York Rangers). That was backed up by being 14^th by expected goals against/60. On the penalty kill, they were 21^st by shots allowed per minute and 26^th by goals against per minute. This was a team outscoring their defensive problems, which is usually a recipe for disaster against Bruins.

However, this isn't the same Boston team as last year. This season's edition allowed 12.9% more expected goals against at all strengths, and 21.2% more actual goals, per 60 minutes. That defensive drop is compounded by a power play that was outside the top-10 of the league all year, and 27^th in the same span as Toronto's defensive decline. It is nice for Boston to face a team struggling on the penalty kill, but if Boston's power play isn't good enough to convert their chances, it negates that advantage. And if Boston gets into an even-strength scoring race against Toronto, that is where the Bruins get into trouble.

If Boston can shut down Auston Matthews to any degree, and force William Nylander and John Tavares to beat Boston's goaltending, the Bruins have a good chance of taking the series. If they can't shut down Matthews, or Toronto neutralizes David Pastrnak, this series may not go very long.

Prediction: Toronto in 6

Tampa Bay Lightning at Florida Panthers

This is a very interesting matchup because Tampa Bay led the league in power play goals per game while Florida gave up the second-most power plays per game to the opponent. If Florida's penalty kill struggles at all, Tampa Bay could really tilt the ice in their favour on special teams.

The flipside of that is the Panthers were tied for 6^th in goals per game with the man advantage, so they have an excellent power play as well. If that gets rolling and can at least run even to what the Lightning manage on the PP, that favours Florida because of their even strength defensive advantage.

📢 advertisement:

Where Florida can get in trouble is if the power play doesn't find the twine regularly. The Panthers were tied for 23^rd by goals per minute at 5-on-5 this season, worse than the Ottawa Senators. They obviously have the talent to turn that around, but it puts additional pressure on the power play if it doesn't.

At the end of the day, with Florida fully healthy, Tampa Bay will go as far as Andrei Vasilevskiy takes them. If he is a below-average starter as he was most of the season, Florida is too good in too many areas for the Lightning to overcome that deficit.

Prediction: Florida in 6

Let's move over to the Western Conference where things are very dicey for every team.

Vegas Golden Knights at Dallas Stars

A few places haven't posted their odds in this series yet with MoneyPuck having it a 53-47 advantage for Dallas, and betting site Pinnacle's odds were 58% for Dallas. The lack of posted odds is also the key to this series: the health of the Vegas skaters.

Alex Pietrangelo hasn't played since April 2^nd due to an illness. That is very worrisome because we've seen lots of players miss a game or two due to an illness, but missing nearly three weeks because of an illness indicates something a lot more serious. This isn't cap shenanigans, either, because he's not on long-term injured reserve. Let's just hope he and his family are ok.

The other is Mark Stone. He has been out two months with a lacerated spleen and though he's been practicing, it's in a non-contact jersey. Maybe he'll be back for Game 1, but maybe not, and that's a lot of uncertainty.

Vegas needs all the help they can muster because even if those two are healthy and in the lineup for Game 1, and even with the additions of Tomas Hertl and Noah Hanifin, they are facing arguably the deepest team in the West. Each of Dallas's three scoring lines averaged between 3.4 and 4.0 goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5, they all had a goal share between 55-67%, and two of the three are good enough to handle shutdown duties. Add that to high-end defence pairs of Miro Heiskanen-Thomas Harley and Chris Tanev–Esa Lindell, and the top three-quarters of this roster is incredibly talented at both ends of the ice. Throw in a top-5 power play, as a treat.

The big issue for Dallas is their goaltending. Jake Oettinger has been very inconsistent this season, but from the Trade Deadline onward, he had a .924 save percentage overall while allowing nine goals in four games against Florida, Edmonton, Colorado, and Vancouver specifically. If he's that guy for Dallas, this is a monster of a team.

Plain and simple, assuming average-ish performances from the goalies of both teams, then Vegas needs to be healthy if they want to move on. If they're missing their top right winger and a top-four defenceman, Dallas's high-end depth is too much to overcome.

Prediction: Dallas in 6

Nashville Predators at Vancouver Canucks

It was a fascinating season for the Canucks. Their first 41 games saw them score 3.9 goals/60 minutes at all strengths, leading the league by 9.2%, which is obscene. That fell off considerably over their second half as they landed at 2.9 goals/60 minutes, or 24^th in the league and worse than Montreal and St. Louis.

However, the defence got better in the second half. Their first 41 games saw them 10^th by both shots against and expected goals against/60. Their latter 41 games saw them third by shots against and fourth by expected goals against. The big reason their actual goals against got worse was the injury to Thatcher Demko. With Demko healthy and ready to go, if Vancouver keeps playing the way they have, they are one of the top defensive teams in the league. If they can keep that defensive play going while being anywhere close to the offensive team they were in the first half, they are arguably the best team in the league. It is a lot of 'ifs', though.

Conversely, Nashville was one of the best post-All Star break teams in the league. They led the league in shots per minute, led the West in goals per minute, were sixth in the NHL by expected goal share, and fifth by actual goal share. The defence wasn't high-end, but their offence hit another gear, and Juuse Saros was solid enough.

After the Trade Deadline, each of Tommy Novak, Mark Jankowski, and Jason Zucker were over 1.1 individual goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5. If they want to get past Vancouver, they'll need that depth scoring. Otherwise, a healthy Demko playing behind a high-end defensive team tips this series to Vancouver.

Prediction: Vancouver in 7

Colorado Avalanche at Winnipeg Jets

Talk about a contrast of styles.

Winnipeg has been among the best defensive teams in the league all season. Their first 41 games saw them allow just 1.63 goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5, and the only other team below 2.0 was Florida (1.98). That was backed up by being tied for the fifth-fewest shots against per minute and great performances from Connor Hellebuyck.

Winnipeg's goals against rate at 5-on-5 fell all the way to **shuffles notes** third in the final 41 games of their season but they were allowing more shots and expected goals. This is where Hellebuyck came in handy, and he is the difference-maker in this series for them.

The penalty kill is where the Jets could get into trouble. They were tied with Florida for 17^th in the league by goals allowed per game while short-handed, and Florida gave their opponents 30% more power plays. Colorado, meanwhile, had one of the top power plays in the league all season and even if they're stymied at 5-on-5, the power play is good enough to win at least one game, if not two.

Colorado, though, has had significant defensive issues. The second half of the season saw them:

23^rd by shots against per minute at 5-on-5
20^th by expected goals against per minute at 5-on-5
15^th by goals against per minute at 5-on-5
29^th by shots against per minute on the penalty kill
27^th by goals against per minute on the penalty kill
16^th by goals against per minute at all strengths

The Avalanche largely outscored their defensive (and goaltending) issues thanks to an elite top scoring line, productive secondary scorers like Valeri Nichushkin, Artturi Lehkonen, and Ross Colton, and offensive talent from the blue line even when excluding Cale Makar.

Despite all of Colorado's offensive upside, this is about the worst possible first-round matchup for them. Winnipeg played 14 games against the top five offensive teams this season (Colorado, Dallas, Edmonton, Toronto, and Tampa Bay), and allowed 31 goals against. That is 2.2 goals allowed per game against the top five offensive teams in the NHL.

Winnipeg has nowhere near the offence Colorado does, but the power play has been very good when everyone is healthy at 12.7 goals per 60 minutes (higher than Tampa Bay's top unit). If that power play can take advantage of a weak Colorado penalty kill, it could negate one advantage that the Avalanche have. This is just a very bad matchup for Colorado.

Prediction: Winnipeg in 7

Los Angeles Kings at Edmonton Oilers

Speaking of bad matchups, we have the team with the second-lowest goals against rate in the West against the team with the third-highest goals-for rate in the West. The difference is that since Edmonton hired coach Kris Knoblauch on November 12^th, they have allowed just 7.8% more goals per minute than Los Angeles. Conversely, the Oilers have scored 26.9% more goals. That includes the final game of the season where Edmonton sat all their top stars and scored one goal, too, so things are a bit more lopsided than that.

Los Angeles allowed just 11 goals in four games against Edmonton this season, which is really good. The problem is they scored just nine goals in return as they were a bottom-10 scoring team at 5-on-5 after American Thanksgiving while Edmonton was a top-10 defensive team. What kept Los Angeles afloat was their power play, but if this comes down to a battle of power plays, the Kings are clearly a step below.

In a way, this series is a lot like the Hurricanes/Islanders series in the East. The Islanders have legitimately been very good defensively under their new coach, but the offence has been underwhelming. That is very similar to the Kings, and Los Angeles will need to really hold Edmonton's top stars at bay and hope the middle-6 options like Trevor Moore, Viktor Arvidsson, and Kevin Fiala can be the difference. If they can't, Edmonton should make quick work of this series.

Prediction: Edmonton in 6

*Data from Evolving Hockey