Happy Canada & Free Agent Frenzy Day! Keep an eye on our homepage as we'll be breaking down the fantasy perspectives of key signings all day!

With the free-agent market set to open at 12pm EST, we saw a bevvy of transactions as teams got their ducks in a row. Here are few notable moves:

Buyouts

Jack Campbell – He'd only completely two years of a five-year contract that came with an average annual value (AAV) of $5 million, but the Oilers have placed Campbell on waivers for the purpose of a buyout. He struggled mightily in Edmonton, posting a 3.53 GAA and .886 SV% through 41 appearances.

Adam Boqvist – Drafted eighth overall in 2018, the 23-year-old defenseman showed flashes of offensive ability during his three years with Columbus but was largely hindered by injuries and inconsistency. Next season would have been the last one on his current deal, which came with an AAV of $2.6 million. There might still be untapped potential with Boqvist, so I could see him getting another opportunity elsewhere.

Nate Schmidt – The 32-year-old defenseman had one more year left at $5.95 million. He'd seen his ice time dwindle with the Jets, dropping to less than 17 minutes a night this past season. Schmidt can definitely help another team's blueline, especially now that he's destined to sign at a lower price.

Notable UFAs

Sunday evening was the deadline for teams to qualify their restricted free agents. There were a few interesting names that weren't qualified, who will be moving to the open market and are likely to see opportunity with a new team next year. This includes Pierre-Olivier Joseph, Alex Nylander, Erik Brannstrom, Nils Lundkvist, Jesse Ylonen, Noah Gregor, Filip Zadina, and Calen Addisson.

It's worth noting that although Nick Robertson received a qualifying offer, his days in Toronto seem numbered.

Sources say that RFA Nick Robertson has no plans to re-sign with the #leafs this summer and has informed the team that he would like to be traded.

— Chris Johnston (@reporterchris) July 1, 2024

Akira Schmid, who acquired by Vegas on Saturday, didn't get a qualifying offer. However, he's still expected to sign with the Golden Knights.

Carter Hart, Dillon Dube, Michael McLeod, and Cal Foote – four of the 2018 Canadian World Junior players facing sexual assault charges – were not tendered qualifying offers and also become free agents.

Signings

Sunday saw a bunch of players re-signing with their teams.

Patrick Kane is reuniting with the Red Wings for another year. His base salary is $4 million but he can make another $2.5 million in bonuses.

Kane contract has bonuses. Per sources:
$4M base
$1.5M at 10 games
$250k at 60 games
$500k if they make playoffs
$250k for 60 points AND playoffs.

Total is $6.5M https://t.co/VnOZ7wdCiQ

— Elliotte Friedman (@FriedgeHNIC) July 1, 2024

Luke Kunin is back in San Jose for another year at $2.75 million.

Max Domi announced he'll be back in Toronto on a four-year deal with a $3.75 million AAV. Timothy Liljegren also re-signed with the Leafs, for two years and an AAV of $3 million. While those two will be sticking around, it sounds like Tyler Bertuzzi will be finding a new home.

Tyler Bertuzzi won't be returning to the Maple Leafs. His value has out priced Toronto. He will land a deal elsewhere in the 4 year and over $5 mil per territory.

— Darren Dreger (@DarrenDreger) July 1, 2024

Utah made another big splash today, re-signing Sean Durzi for four years and an AAV of $6 million.

The Ducks and Isac Lundestrom are reunited for one year to the tune of $1.5 million.

Of course, one of the biggest moves on Sunday was Tampa Bay sending Carolina a 2025 third-round pick in exchange for Jake Guentzel's negotiating rights. It sounds like both parties are closing in on a long-term deal, but as I write this, details are up in the air.

Still not finalized, but all signs point to Tampa getting Jake Guentzel signed to a 7-year deal. I would expect an announcement sometime tomorrow before the market opens. The Bolts weren't going to trade for his rights without feeling good about their chances to get him signed. https://t.co/G2SHOPjvdw

— Pierre LeBrun (@PierreVLeBrun) July 1, 2024

Tampa has been incredibly busy with trades this weekend, but it seems they're also on the cusp of an extension for Victor Hedman.

Sounds like @TBLightning have progressed and closing in on a Contract Extension with D Hedman. #GoBolts #HockeyX

— Kevin Weekes (@KevinWeekes) July 1, 2024

In the same way Tampa's early negotiations with Guentzel have paid off, so too have Toronto's early talks with Chris Tanev.

@MapleLeafs and D Tanev sounds like new Contract comes in around $5M AAV from what I'm told for the hometown guy. #LeafsForever #HockeyX

— Kevin Weekes (@KevinWeekes) July 1, 2024

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In honour of today's free agent frenzy, I thought I'd review some of the big-name signings over the past three years to see if there are any lessons for fantasy managers to take into this season.

2021

Dougie Hamilton

The biggest fish from the summer of 2021, Hamilton signed a seven-year deal with the Devils at an AAV of $9 million. Hamilton earned that contract after posting a 65-point pace over his final two seasons with Carolina before becoming a free agent. Although some look at this signing favourably since he's been productive with New Jersey in recent years, his debut campaign with the Devils was actually quite underwhelming as he posted a measly 40-point pace. That offensive decline is partially explained by injury as he missed time with a broken jaw, but it's also worth noting that his share of power-play time was lower during that first year in NJ (53%) than it was during his final and most productive years with Carolina (66%). This highlights how unpredictable deployment can affect a player's production when they join a new team.

Philipp Grubauer  

It's hard to imagine based on his play in recent years, but in the summer of 2021, Philipp Grubauer was a highly coveted free agent. He was coming off a career-best season that saw him post a .922 SV% and 1.95 GAA through 40 games with Colorado. Although that was his best season, he'd posted strong numbers for many years, mostly in a backup capacity. He signed a six-year deal at an AAV of $5.9 million to backstop Seattle in its inaugural season but proceeded to fall from grace. In year one with the Kraken, Grubauer posted a 3.16 GAA and .889 SV% through 55 appearances. Seattle wasn't even that bad defensively, it was mostly Grubauer playing poorly. It seems we formed an inflated perception of him because of how good Colorado was. While most were aware he was experiencing a team downgrade after moving from the Avs to the Kraken, there was still optimism about his fantasy outlook because he'd posted strong numbers as a backup and seemed capable of providing more value as a starter. He showed us that new situations and new environments tend to yield unpredictable results.

Zach Hyman

Edmonton's signing of the then 29-year-old winger looks ingenious now given his play from the last two years, but his first campaign with the Oilers wasn't on the same level. After posting a 63-point pace in his final season with Toronto, Hyman managed a modest 58-point pace in year one with Edmonton. It seems he needed some time to settle into new surroundings as he's since ascended to a point-per-game pace. A greater role on the power-play has also helped him produce more as he went from a 53% share during his debut season in Edmonton, to more than 70% in the last two years. Like Hamilton, Hyman serves as a reminder that even good players need time to acclimate. As a fantasy manager, there's no need for you to pay inflated prices for players in their first year on a new team, because that can often be a turbulent transition period.

2022

Johnny Gaudreau

Just before becoming a free agent in the summer of 2022, Gaudreau posted a career-best 115-point season in Calgary. He leveraged that into a seven-year deal with Columbus at an AAV of $9.75 million. Now, prior to that career-best campaign, Gaudreau was averaging a 78-point pace over seven years in Calgary. That's roughly the same pace he posted in his first year with the Blue Jackets, but we still look at that first year in Columbus as a disappointing one because of how well he performed the year before.

This highlights another danger of targeting newly signed free agents in fantasy hockey. Many players perform their best when they're in the last year of a contract because there's added motivation to secure a new deal. This means their fantasy value is at or near a peak, so you're probably buying at an all-time high. At such a high price, it's more likely that these players fall short of expectations than meet them.

Nazem Kadri

After posting a 100-point pace with Colorado in 2021-2022, Kadri signed a seven-year deal for a total of $49 million. The only problem is that a third of his points that year came from a star-studded Avalanche power play. His first year in Calgary came with a dramatic decline in offense as he posted just 56 points. There were many reasons for this decline, including a two-minute drop in overall ice-time, a smaller share of PP time (from 67% in COL to 56% in CGY), and less exposure to elite talent. Oftentimes, when a player moves to a worse team, we know that there will be a drop in offense because they're playing with less talented players. However, when a good player goes to a worse team, it's also intuitive to expect them to take on a bigger role, so we don't expect the drop-off in offense to be massive. Kadri is another great example of how unpredictable a newly signed free agent's deployment can be in their first year with a new team.

John Klingberg

It may be hard believe given our current perception of Klingberg, but he was a fantasy hockey stud for the first eight years of his career, consistently posting 50-60 points while quarterbacking Dallas' power play. When he became a free agent in the summer of 2022, Klingberg signed a one-year deal for $7 million to play for a rebuilding Ducks team. Defensive deficiencies that were once insulated by a high-quality Stars' roster became hard to ignore in Anaheim, as the Ducks weren't equipped to support Klingberg as well.

Here, we see how a player's impact can be influenced by the team around them. Just because a player thrived in one location for a long time, does not mean that success will translate to a new team. There are so many variables that differ between locations, including chemistry with teammates, relationships with coaches and their systems, as well as intangibles like confidence and comfort in a new environment. We often think of hockey players as robots, but I know if I was starting a new job in a new location, I'd need some time to settle in and build confidence before performing at my best.

Darcy Kuemper

A lot of what was said about Grubauer above also applies to Kuemper here. He went from a 2.54 GAA and .909 SV% in Colorado to a 2.85 GAA and .909 SV% in Washington – both 57-game samples. As a rule of thumb, it might be a good idea to avoid goalies when they're experiencing a downgrade to the defense in front of them, regardless of how talented you think the netminder is.

Claude Giroux

So far, I've painted a pretty pessimistic picture of newly signed big-name free agents. However, it's important to acknowledge that there can be success stories as well – one of which is Claude Giroux. After pacing for 70 points in the final year of his contract, split between the Flyers and Panthers, Giroux signed a three-year deal with the Senators at an AAV of $6.5 million. His first year in Ottawa was surprisingly productive, as he racked up 79 points. It's important to note that 24 of his points came on the power play, even though he saw just 45% of Ottawa's total time with the man advantage. Rarely do we see such a high PPP total accompanied by a minority share of PP time, but Ottawa proved to have a much better power-play and supporting cast than Philly did in Giroux's final years with the Flyers. Typically, though, such a drastic drop off in power-play opportunity (from 64% to 44%) results in less production.

2023

Dmitry Orlov

Orlov turned heads in the spring of 2023 when he posted 17 points in 23 regular-season games after he was dealt to the Bruins at the trade deadline. He followed that up with eight points in seven playoff appearances for Boston.  When he signed a two-year deal with Carolina at a staggering $7.75 million AAV, I don't think many expected him to replicate the offense he had just produced with Boston. We knew he was joining a strong blueline in Carolina, where he'd be behind Brent Burns in line for power-play minutes. Still, Orlov had provided decent multicategory coverage in the past, especially in the hits department. Given the magnitude of his contract, it seemed logical that he'd hold a prominent role in Carolina, allowing him to continue contributing to various fantasy categories. It came as a surprise, to me at least, that his average ice time dropped from 22:33 (during his final year before signing in Carolina – split between Washington and Boston) to a shocking 17:19 in his first year with the Canes. There were 184 defensemen who played at least 50 games last year. Orlov ranked 136^th in average ice time. Less ice time led to less impact as Orlov totalled significantly fewer points, hits, and blocks than the year before. Did anyone really expect his deployment to change so drastically after signing at such a high number? At the risk of sounding like a broken record, such is the major danger with newly signed free agents – unpredictable deployment!

Ryan O'Reilly

O'Reilly sheds light on the rare circumstances required to target newly signed free agents in your fantasy pool: the player had a down-year before signing their new deal.

After seven-straight years of posting a 60-point pace or better, O'Reilly struggled in the final year of a seven-year deal. Hindered by injuries and lacklustre linemates in St. Louis, he posted an underwhelming 46-point pace between the Blues and Leafs. However, it's worth noting that his play picked up significantly after he was traded to Toronto, where he registered 11 points through 13 regular season games and nine through 11 playoff appearances. Based on his play down the stretch, we knew that he was much better than his overall production from the season suggested.

During his down year, O'Reilly saw less opportunity than he had in previous seasons. When he signed a four-year deal with a Nashville team that lacked center depth, he seemed destined to return to a high volume of action. That's exactly what happened as he went from a 38% share of his team's power-play time last year, to 63% this past season. That extra opportunity helped him quadruple his power-play output. Now, because he had a down year before signing that contract, his fantasy value wasn't at an all-time high, meaning you didn't have to overpay to acquire him in fantasy drafts.

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If I were to boil down everything above into some guiding principles for fantasy drafts, I'd say avoid big-name free agents that just signed with new teams because their fantasy values are often inflated. Why? For starters, their names have been in the spotlight during free agency – which is the last major hockey event before fantasy drafts. As a result, these players are more likely to be at the front of our minds heading into draft day, potentially causing them to be selected ahead of other players because they seem more familiar. Fantasy managers also tend to be optimistic gamblers that crave being rewarded for their intuition and intellect. With so much unknown when a player joins a new team, there's inherently more risk associated with that player from a fantasy perspective. Managers love when that risk turns to reward because they can brag to everyone else in the league. The problem is, with newly signed FAs, you're often paying for the most optimistic outcome (i.e., the player they can be if everything goes right), rather than the most realistic outcome, so there's way more risk than reward. Sticking with proven players in familiar environments usually leads to more predictable outcomes because we have more information and can make more accurate projections. It may seem like a boring strategy, but it'll be worth it when you win your league.

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Thanks for reading! If you ever have any fantasy hockey questions, follow me on Twitter @BrennanDeSouza and shoot me a message!