The Tampa Bay Lightning have signed Jake Guentzel to a seven-year contract with an average annual value of $9 million.

The Lightning had cleared the necessary cap space to sign Guentzel by trading both Mikhail Sergachev ($8.5 mil AAV) and Tanner Jeannot ($2.665 AAV) while allowing Steven Stamkos to go to free agency. They had also given up a 2025 third-round pick to acquire Guentzel's negotiating rights from Carolina.

It may not be that simple, but upon initial glance Guentzel should take the spot that was vacated by Stamkos (pending Stamkos signing elsewhere). Both have experience playing on the left side, while both have scored 40 goals multiple times. Jon Cooper has occasionally stacked his top forwards together (Stamkos, Nikita Kucherov, Brayden Point), but more often than not he spreads them onto two separate lines. Kucherov and Point were mainly used together as a unit in 2023-24, though.

It is worth noting that Guentzel will be on a power play with Kucherov, who is a better scoring option than anyone on Carolina's roster. Interestingly enough, the Lightning (28.6%) and Hurricanes (26.9%) were 1-2 in terms of power-play effectiveness in the entire league in 2023-24. Guentzel should also make strong contributions at 5-on-5, as 25 of his 30 goals last season were at even strength.

Throughout Guentzel's time as a Hurricane (both regular season and playoffs), his most frequent linemate was Sebastian Aho. Comparing Aho's production with Guentzel on the Canes to before Guentzel was traded there, Aho's point-per-game output did not differ much. Aho is a great player on his own, but he might lose a smidge of value without Aho, depending on who the Canes add in free agency. Since Guentzel wasn't with the Canes for very long either, Aho should continue to be the player that he has been all along.

In terms of changes in value below, we're talking about minor shifts as opposed to major swings. Guentzel was basically a rental for the Hurricanes, and he is essentially a younger replacement for Stamkos. With Kucherov and Point in particular around him, Guentzel certainly has an opportunity to reach 90 points for the first time in his career this coming season. There's even a possibility for 100 points if everything goes right and he is immediately able to gel with his new team.

Looking long term, Guentzel is nearly five years younger than Stamkos, which should lead to a longer run of productive years. This is why it makes sense for the Bolts to turn in this direction to extend their contending life cycle, even if it means (probably) saying goodbye to their captain.

Players this helps, in order:

Guentzel

Kucherov

Point

Victor Hedman

Nick Paul

Players this hurts, in order:

Aho

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Seth Jarvis

Andrei Svechnikov

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