Ramblings: Gaudreau with Monahan, Trading Draft Picks (Jul 14)

Ian Gooding

2024-07-14

Sean Monahan's choice of Columbus on July 1 (5 years, $5.5 million) was an interesting one, not the least of which was a reunion with his former Flames linemate Johnny Gaudreau. The Blue Jackets already have a ton of money invested in Gaudreau, specifically five more years at $9.75 million per season.

Gaudreau has failed to come anywhere close to his contract year production, averaging 17 goals and 67 points over each of his past two seasons. Teams usually hand out long-term contracts to UFAs assuming that the first two seasons will be much better than the last two seasons. The way the Gaudreau contract has played out so far, it appears that he might be a buyout candidate at some point if his production continues to trend in the wrong direction.

Enter Monahan, who was Gaudreau's linemate for seven seasons (from 2013-14 to 2019-20) in Calgary. Monahan averaged 28 goals and 31 assists during that span, which was more productive than the seasons that followed. Monahan had been felled by a hip injury that required surgery, so it's good news that his 2023-24 production (59 points in 83 games) was his best since 2018-19.

Does that mean Monahan and Gaudreau will play on the same line and recapture their Calgary magic? Reuniting them won't hurt their fantasy value, but it isn't as simple as that. Both will be at least 30 years of age by the time the season starts, so it's unlikely that either hit their career highs again (especially Gaudreau at 115 points). In addition, Columbus isn't a deep team, so teams may focus their top matchups on a Gaudreau-Monahan duo, or they may be split up for various reasons. Having Monahan back could breathe some life back into Gaudreau, but I'd still bet the under on Johnny Hockey scoring at a point-per-game this season.

The Fantasy Hockey Guide will be available on July 29. Everything that you've come to know and love about the guide is included again this season – its 19th year. Preorder yours today!

Looking to trade up or down in your league's entry draft? Before you send out trade offers, first watch the movie Draft Day if you can. The storyline is focused around the NFL draft, but you could apply the same concepts toward the NHL draft or even your keeper league draft. If you haven't watched the movie, I won't spoil it for you. However, there are a few takeaways for fantasy leagues. For examples, qualities like character and desire will matter, even if they aren't apparent initially. Also, player values can be volatile and change very suddenly, especially at the draft.

If looking to make a trade or receiving a trade offer, ask yourself if there is a player that you would really like to have on your roster. Will that player be available when it's your turn to pick? If the player most likely won't be available, then you can try to trade up if it makes sense to do it. Having two other lower picks, especially one within a round of that pick, might be enough to snag that pick. If the player most likely will be available, will you be reaching for that player? That might present an opportunity to trade down.

In one of my leagues, I recently received two separate offers to trade up in the draft from the 16th pick. One offer was for the 5th overall pick, while the other was for the 8th overall pick. At that time, I hadn't thought about who I would pick yet. I was simply going to wait my turn and look at who would be available as my turn approached.

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To determine which pick made more sense, I had to consider what I would receive and what I would give up, as someone would in any trade offer. Yet because we were dealing with draft picks, I also had to determine which players could be available. Setting tiers then became important, which is where I figured out that after Macklin Celebrini, there wasn't a whole lot of difference between players 2-9 from a fantasy perspective. That meant I felt like I could afford to wait for the 8th pick, which was the offer I decided to take.

The player I picked at 8th was Berkly Catton. The players picked before him in order were Celebrini, Artyom Levshunov, Tij Iginla, Ivan Demidov, Zeev Buium, Zayne Parekh, and Cayden Lindstrom. The fact that these players were picked before my turn didn't come as a huge surprise to me.

It's difficult to project where players will be in 5-10 years. We love to talk about the player that got away from a certain team. Yet we are trying to predict the futures of 18-year-olds who have their whole lives ahead of them, so everyone from the experts (both real and so-called) to those simply guessing will have their hits and misses here. No one bats 1.000, and even a broken clock is right twice a day.

I’m keeping this one short today because I typed it while away on vacation. This is a good time for me to tell you to enjoy your summer. Recharge your batteries, and get out and do something enjoyable, even if it’s something simple like a walk.

Even during the dog days of summer, thanks for taking the time to read. Follow me on X @Ian_Gooding and Threads.

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Starting Goalies

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  Players Team
PATRIK LAINE MTL
LANE HUTSON MTL
JACKSON LACOMBE ANA
DYLAN GUENTHER UTA
ALEX TURCOTTE L.A

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  Players Team
JESPER WALLSTEDT MIN
MACKENZIE BLACKWOOD COL
KAREL VEJMELKA UTA
LEEVI MERILAINEN OTT
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LINE COMBOS

  Frequency OTT Players
22.4 BRADY TKACHUK TIM STUTZLE CLAUDE GIROUX
16.6 SHANE PINTO NICK COUSINS MICHAEL AMADIO
15.0 JOSH NORRIS RIDLY GREIG DRAKE BATHERSON

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