This week on Frozen Tool Forensics we are taking a break from our division review to jump in on Bubble Keeper Week. To set some parameters for the article today, I am going to focus on data that came from a home league I play in. Essentially, I am going to use that league to determine some players that were bubble candidates for a chunk of the season and then dive into what their season looked like overall and what we might expect for them going into 2024-25.

First up, let's set some parameters. The league in question is a categories league made up of 12 teams that roster 19 players (including goalies). We will be focusing on skaters today, so the stats that are most relevant are goals, assists, power-play points, shots, hits, blocks, and face-off wins.

I have defined 'Bubble Player' as those players who were added to the most teams. I was able to dig through our roster history and get a count of all of the different teams that a player was rostered with. Essentially these are guys that were truly the bottom spot on a bunch of people's rosters. We know that because they were clearly all dropped at some point, and then added, and then dropped again, and so on.

We are going to start with the player that was represented on the most rosters throughout the year. In our league this honor goes to Lucas Raymond. He was rostered on eight of the 12 teams at some point throughout the season. As you might imagine, he wasn't particularly long lived on anyone's roster though only averaging a little over four games with each team. The implication here might seem to be that Raymond had a down year or something, but that is not really the case.

In fact, Raymond had a very successful season. He put up career highs in goals, assists (and therefore points), hits, and blocks. The problem for our purposes was the lack of category coverage. While he did technically get career highs in hits and blocks, his production there is still quite poor. He doesn't take faceoffs, he barely shot twice per game, had a career low of 16 power-play points. In a points-only format he would be ranked much higher, but given our multi-category context teams had a hard time justifying the roster spot for someone who only contributed in a couple of categories.

So what about his future? He is technically not signed, though I don't think that should panic anyone just yet. He spent most of the season in the top six, often lining up with Dylan Larkin. Skating with Larkin is significantly better than with J.T. Compher or Andrew Copp so given that Detroit also signed Patrick Kane and Vladimir Tarasenko to compete with Raymond and Alex Debrincat for top line and top power-play duties, it is definitely worth keeping in mind.

Raymond has fluctuated a bit between about 17:30 and 18:00 of total time on ice over his three-year career. That seems a pretty reasonable expectation going forward. Unfortunately, his percent of the team's power-play time has been declining, from almost 60 percent in 2021-22 to 50 percent in 2023-24. At least one of Larkin, Kane, Debrincat, Tarasenko, and Raymond won't be on the top power play going forward, so again it certainly bears watching.

In other bad news for Raymond, it looks like his 72-point pace was higher than we should have expected. His personal shooting percentage was 19 (more than six points higher than his previous career average), plus his team 5-on-5 shooting percentage and his point participation rates were all higher than his career averages. Some of that could be him improving as a player, but it does also imply that a similar season would produce fewer points going forward.

Overall, I don't really see Raymond leaving bubble status in this format for 2024-25. He would need to either increase peripherals or increase scoring to be more valuable. I just listed a bunch of reasons (unsustainable underlying numbers, internal competition, etc.) that give some cause for concern for a step forward in point production, and there has been no consistent trend indicating a potential change in playing style, or even more time on ice to provide more opportunities for shots, hits, or blocks.

Second on our list was Ivan Barbashev. He finished the season spending time on seven rosters, and spent about five games on each team on average. He has a bit of an opposite profile from Raymond. He was rostered as he is a player who hits, who can get top line deployment. Overall, he ended the season on a 45-point pace so it is easy to see why he did not stick on rosters, but his 2.2 hits per game were certainly appealing while he went on one of the several scoring runs he managed through the season.

Barbashev's stat line looks more or less sustainable. I am not sure that is a vote of confidence given his scoring pace, but there it is. Looking toward the future, it seems very likely that Barbashev stays in the top six. Sticking with Jack Eichel or Tomas Hertl at even strength is going to be needed if he has any shot at improving his point paces. 45 points each of the last two seasons doesn't really move the needle, so he will need to step up a little with the departure of Jonathan Marchessault.

It's the lack of power-play time and low shot rates that both hurt Barbashev's overall value and further contribute to his lack of scoring, so something there is going to have to improve for him to be a more rosterable player. There is nothing obvious about his recent numbers, or his potential deployment that makes me think big changes are coming for Barbashev. Like with Raymond, I see another bubble season for Barbashev.

Third on our list is Adam Fantilli. This one definitely has to do with prospect hype. Fantilli put up a 45-point pace in his rookie year to go along with 2.3 shots per game, 1.29 hits per game, and .52 blocks per game. Oh, and it was only in 49 games. On the surface maybe it is surprising he was rostered on so many teams particularly given how much time he missed, but basically every time a team lost patience someone else was willing to give him a go. His shot hit rates were pretty decent for a rookie, but at the end of the day a 45-point pace, less than 16 minutes a night, and missing time were enough to curtail enthusiasm.

We can likely expect Fantilli to grow in his second season, but there is a question as to how much. A big sticking point is going to be deployment. He did not consistently play with Johnny Gaudreau on the top line in his rookie year, and now he also has Sean Monahan (and his history with Gaudreau) to compete with on top of Boone Jenner. His 44 percent share of the power play is not going to be enough either. Beyond linemates it would also be good to see him add some time on ice. There is nothing particularly alarming about his season in any direction so there is no reason to think he can't put up similar paces going forward as a baseline. A 45-point pace isn't enough in most one-year leagues, so we really need to see how the deployment will shake out.

Of the three players listed here I am the most optimistic about Fantilli (though he still might be another year away from being a true season hold). He already had better shot and hit rates than Raymond, plus the pedigree to at least match Raymond's point production. The question is just how low is it going to take Fantilli to get there. If I am guessing Raymond finishes with the higher point pace in 2024-25, but I am hopeful about his trajectory and future promise.

That is all for this week

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