Every Sunday, we share 21 Fantasy Rambles from our writers at DobberHockey. These thoughts are curated from the past week’s 'Daily Ramblings'.

Writers/Editors: Ian Gooding, Michael Clifford, Alexander MacLean, Brennan Des and Dobber

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1. It was Bubble Keeper Week on DobberHockey, we hope you enjoyed the articles. Today, I’m going to turn toward some players that have recently experienced changes of value in salary cap leagues due to new contracts. Salary increases can create tough decisions in terms of who to keep, yet they may be earned due to a player getting better. Salary decreases can justify a player staying on a roster, but they also reflect a player decreasing in value. In all, salary changes are a double-edged sword.

All of these players would certainly qualify as bubble keepers if not outright drops in many leagues. This is a 20-team league with deep rosters to fill (3 C, 3 LW, 3 RW, 6 D, 3 Skt, 1 G, 6 Res, 33 Minor), so these might be players that don’t generate a ton of interest in default-sized leagues. So I’ll try to highlight where they hold value.

Max Domi

After a reasonably productive season (47 points in 80 games), Domi earned a slight raise from the Leafs from $3 million per season to $3.75 million per season. That didn’t bother me. Not only did I keep Domi, but I also rejected a trade offer for him since he has the potential to provide solid value for this team.

Domi received his minutes with top-line forwards such as Auston Matthews and William Nylander, but he was also able to generate points outside of the top 6 and off the Leafs’ top power play. However, that might have contributed to a lack of goals (9) and power-play points (2). A 6.6 SH% was another major hindrance, so he will need to find a way to get his shot total back up to at least two shots per game. Domi averaged just 1.7 SOG/GP in 2023-24. If one of the Leafs’ core players is injured, then Domi should be able to move up in the lineup. For example, Domi posted 10 points in 12 games while Mitch Marner was sidelined.

Domi channeled his father Tie Domi in collecting penalty minutes in 2023-24, finishing seventh in the league with 118 PIM. Max’s previous career high was 82 PIM, so this was a pleasant surprise if your league counts penalty minutes. Domi’s penalty minutes were padded by six fights and four misconducts. He might be on better behavior in 2024-25, but that’s something to keep an eye on in bangers leagues. (aug17)

2. Anthony Mantha

In need of a relatively inexpensive scoring winger, the Flames signed Mantha to a one-year contract worth $3.5 million. That’s a significant drop from the $5.7 million per season contract he received from the Red Wings that the Capitals and Golden Knights also took turns holding. I’m not expecting huge totals from Mantha this season, and I originally added him figuring I might drop him later. Yet it makes more sense to hold onto him with the lower cap hit.

With the Flames, Mantha could receive an increase on the 14-15 minutes per game that he had averaged over the past three seasons. Calgary is in a rebuild or retool (whatever you want to call it), so their depth isn’t what it used to be. That means Mantha’s icetime could return to the roughly 18 minutes a game that he used to see in Detroit. If the Flames are well out of the playoff race at the deadline, Mantha could be flipped to a contender. That wouldn’t necessarily help his value, as he could be pushed down the lineup on a deeper team.

An increase in ice time might be offset by regression from higher-than-normal advanced stats in 2023-24. Mantha’s shooting percentage was 20.4%, which is unsustainable for a career 12% shooter. In addition, nearly 50% of his assists were secondary assists, which means that he could also lose a few assists in 2023-24. Mantha is also a Band-Aid Boy, with his 74 games in 2023-24 his highest games-played total since the 2017-18 season. All of this means I’m not super high on Mantha, but he’s a reasonable option in a deep salary cap league. (aug17)

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3. In last Sunday’s Ramblings, I listed five skaters who will be bubble keepers on one of my teams. You can read about them here. Today it’s all about the goalies. Since I went with quantity over quality for my goalies, there’s plenty for me to choose from. Yes, it was Zero G. Full-on Zero G.

Joey Daccord

Daccord was my top goalie on a team in which I went full Zero G… and won the league! I wrote about how it all went down in a Ramblings from May, while Ryan Brudner analyzed this team in the Geek of the Week (go to Case Study #4). In short, Daccord upgraded Seattle’s goaltending while filling in for the injured Philipp Grubauer for a considerable portion of 2023-24.

The big question for Daccord is whether he can carry his success into 2023-24. If so, then there’s a very good chance he starts more games than Grubauer, who has not lived up to his six-year contract with a cap hit of nearly $6 million per season. Ryan, AKA Fantasy Cheddar, believes in him. Dobber even has him as the slight favorite to be the starter over Grubauer.

This season, it will probably be minimal G instead of Zero G on this team. I’m willing to invest in Daccord for one year, even if the cost is a bit high, which it will be. He’s on the final year of his contract, so his situation after this season is up in the air. A good season could make Daccord the starter in Seattle or elsewhere, while the Kraken consider buying out Grubauer. A poor season could make Daccord a backup somewhere next season. (aug16)

4. Anthony Stolarz

In contrast to Daccord, who was a waiver-wire add that became my top goalie, Stolarz was a late-season pickup specifically added for the fantasy playoffs. The plan worked, which you can read more about by clicking on the Ramblings link above for Daccord. With Stolarz signing in Toronto this offseason, I now have a goalie that I can keep beyond rental purposes if I wish.

This is a season where we could find out who Stolarz really is. Now 30 years of age, Stolarz has been a career backup heading to a situation where the incumbent (Joseph Woll) isn’t on as solid footing as Stolarz’s previous goaltending partners (Sergei Bobrovsky, John Gibson, to name the two most recent). As a result, Stolarz has never appeared in more than 28 games in a season. Even though he played behind a strong defense in Florida, Stolarz is deserving of this opportunity. Among goalies with at least as many games played, no goalie had a lower goals-against average (2.03) or save percentage (.925).

Toronto should accrue its share of wins and should be a playoff team again. Woll hasn’t proven that he can withstand the rigors of a full season, having made it through just 25 games in 2023-24. In fact, go further back into his AHL career and he hasn’t played more than 32 games in a season. Whether Stolarz can handle that workload is another question, but he’s in a better position than he has been. At slightly less than the cost of Daccord, Stolarz is also worth betting on for at least a season. (aug16)

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5. Jakub Vrana has agreed to a professional tryout with the Washington Capitals, his former team. The chances of a player making a team after a PTO are usually quite low, but the Capitals and coach Spencer Carbery at least have some familiarity with Vrana. If Vrana has put his personal issues behind him (was on the Player Assistance Program) and has an outstanding camp, then perhaps he prevents a prospect like Ivan Miroshnichenko or Hendrix Lapierre from making the team. (aug16)

6. According to Frank Seravalli, Milan Lucic has been training in an attempt to continue his NHL career. Lucic would need to be cleared by Gary Bettman to continue his career, as he was arrested in November for assault and battery. Lucic played just four games for the Bruins in 2023-24. I’d have to guess that his NHL days are over, but you never know. (aug16)

7. The Top 100 Roto Rankings have been updated for August! Use them for your very early draft or for your planning. View the rankings here.

8. On Tuesday, I answered a couple questions submitted from Twitter. Today, as Bubble keeper week rolls on here at Dobber Hockey, there are five more questions covering nearly 20 different players, and that’s why these types of questions can be valuable for a lot of fantasy managers beyond those asking the questions. Let’s get to it.

We are starting with a couple of wingers, one on the rise and one already at his peak:

@JakeBlumes: Raymond or Fiala as my final keeper in a points only league?

It is funny how hockey works, because Fiala has been a favourite of mine for several years now, while I used to be someone who thought Raymond was an overrated prospect. Fiala is still a favourite of mine, but I’ve come around a lot on Raymond. It wasn’t just his 72-point season, though that helps.

What helped Raymond was him taking legitimate strides in his underlying process. Back in May, I wrote about Detroit’s season and two things were noted: Raymond wasn’t wasting his chances to find teammates for dangerous shots, and he was carrying the puck into the zone at a very high rate. He has started driving the offence for his line mates, rather than relying on Dylan Larkin, and it is the step forward we needed to see from him. Also, from that piece in May, I noted that Raymond skated nearly 19 minutes a game over the team’s final 20 games as they pushed for a playoff spot. I am assuming Raymond is over 19 minutes a game in 2024-25 and has turned a corner from a productive third wheel to a heavily-used goal-driver.

Much like Raymond, Fiala was used heavily down the stretch as the Kings were trying to hang onto their playoff spot. I really do like Fiala, and he’s still just 28 years old and has been just shy of a point-per-game played across the last three seasons. The problem is that Los Angeles is a team focused on point shots and forechecking rather than playing fast off the rush or creating turnovers. That kind of puts a cap on Fiala’s upside and while he should get to 70-plus points against, so should Raymond, and one of those guys is just starting to enter his prime as the other gets to the end of his.

In a straight points league, I’m keeping Raymond. They’re too similar to really differentiate, so I’ll lean to the younger player.  (aug15)

9. Alright, let’s get to a question that is truly and end-of-the-roster decision:

@EdInTheMiddle: Hi Michael, wondering thoughts on Coleman, Rakell, Perron, Benoit and Allen for a 16 team, 25 keeper cat league. Thanks!

This is one where knowing the other keepers would be important. If there is just one goalie kept, I would probably keep Allen just because of how deep the league is.

Other than that, I think we can let Benoit go. I get it, he provides a ton of hits, a lot of PIMs, and a good amount of blocks. I have no problem keeping him for those reasons, but he is also a complete black hole elsewhere. Being a big positive in a few categories is great, but if that player is also a net negative in every other category, it doesn’t really help the overall value of that player.

I also am letting Perron go. When he was healthy, he was a very good player. That time has passed, though. Ottawa might not be a good team, but the one thing they have is a plethora of forwards that will be ahead of Perron on the depth chart, and there’s no reason to think he’ll out-produce Blake Coleman in a multi-cat format. Even if their hits are similar, and Perron produces 6-8 more points, Coleman is likely going to have the edge in a lot of other categories.

To me, this is between Coleman and Rickard Rakell. I do like Rakell and think there’s a rebound here, but I worry he’s lost his top PP role to Michael Bunting. Rakell was stapled to the second PP unit down the stretch last season and while he likely gets some top PP time through the season, it’s not going to be a permanent spot for him. To me, he’s a 50-point player now, not someone who will push past 60 points. His hits will help, but that’s about the only spot where he’ll contribute significant peripherals.

I will lean Coleman here. Not that I’m a big fan of his, but he can be a 20-goal, 40-point winger with very good PIMs, hit, and shot totals while contributing to areas like short-handed points, takeaways, and so on. Rakell was the PP edge, but Coleman has the SHP edge, and has the advantage in a few extra peripheral categories. I’ll lean Coleman, but it’s definitely between him and Rakell for me, assuming there aren’t positional needs elsewhere given the other players kept. (aug15)

10. Now, we get to one that seems pretty easy to me:

@ianmclaren: thoughts on Farabee, Bertuzzi, and Lapierre?

I like Hendrix Lapierre as a real-life NHL player, but Washington went out to get Pierre-Luc Dubois, Andrew Mangiapane, Brandon Duhaime, and Taylor Raddysh to re-load their thinned-out forward group. Lapierre will have to take big leaps to be a reliable top-6 forward, and he’ll get secondary PP time at best. That is a pass for me.

Joel Farabee is an interesting player. If you told me today that he would get 17:30 per game and would skate on the team’s top PP unit, he’d be my selection. However, he lost ice time from 2022-23 to 2023-24, the Flyers added Matvei Michkov to the fold, and Tyson Foerster looks to be a John Tortorella favourite. At best, Farabee is the #5 forward on the depth chart, and with Tortorella behind the bench, that means he’s anywhere from the #5 to the #10 forward. Adding Michkov also puts into question whether Farabee will earn top PP time. The Flyers have a bad power play anyway, but if Michkov helps turn things around, Farabee may have lost his hope at regular top PP minutes.

To me, this is an instance where we keep Bertuzzi. He didn’t have the 2023-24 season fantasy managers were hoping for, but he also had just six power play points. The 2024-25 Dobber Hockey Fantasy Guide (available for purchase here) has Bertuzzi on the second PP unit but I think he takes the net-front role on the top unit. A full season from an improved Bedard, along with some other offseason additions, should give this team a decent power play, and I think Bertuzzi can get to the 10-15 PPP range. That makes him a 50-point player, which is about where Farabee will come in. I think Bertuzzi has more upside beyond that, though, so it’s the Chicago Blackhawk for me. (aug15)

11. Like an earlier question, we have one across several positions:

@RandalGrvs: Interested in your thoughts on guys like Hertl, Rust, Byram, Matheson, Brossoit

The easy drop is Byram. Look, I really like Byram (like Fiala, he’s one of ‘my guys’), but going to Buffalo is a bad situation for him. He is behind at least Rasmus Dahlin for top PP time, if not both him and Owen Power. Also, we aren’t going to see the 3F/2D power play they ran after Byram was traded to Buffalo last season because Lindy Ruff is there. Ruff often used 4F/1D power plays in New Jersey so it’ll be the same in Buffalo and that caps Byram’s upside.

Laurent Brossoit is also an easy pass. The backup goalie – at best a 1A/1B – for a team that might be in the Draft Lottery again? No thanks.

Mike Matheson is an interesting name. If the manager was going for it this year, I would say keep him. The team still has a backlog of young defencemen and while I’m very high on Lane Hutson, this season screams of Hutson starting out in the AHL before a call-up in November or December, at which point he’ll be running the second PP unit. Matheson should be around or over 50 points again with very good peripherals. If the decision is focused on 2024-25, he’s my choice.

If the decision is balancing 2024-25 with the future, I probably lean Tomas Hertl. I view him and Bryan Rust as similar options, but the difference is Pittsburgh might be in full tear-down mode a year (maybe two) from now, depending what happens with Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin; the Penguins already aren’t very good right now as it is. Rust and Hertl probably have similar point outputs, but if all goes right, I think Hertl’s upside is higher given the team around him. Conversely, peripherals will be similar, Hertl is slightly younger, and with the upside built in, my choice is Hertl.

I will say, a lot of this is position dependent. If someone is already keeping two centres and Hertl has no winger eligibility, I would be fine with Rust. If someone is not keeping any defencemen and is looking to win this year, Matheson is probably the choice. A bit of extra context is needed, but Hertl is the general option for me. (aug15)

12. The last one is a group of similar forwards:

@MrDavidaca: Hi Michael, would love to read about Malkin/Giroux/D. Strome/Kreider. Thanks!

Malkin is the first guy to pass on. He’s a first-ballot Hall of Famer and one of the top stars of his generation. He also turned 38 years old last month, is on an aging roster, and has had back-to-back seasons of declining points and shots rates. Farewell to thee.

I think the next guy to pass on is Claude Giroux. He is a very good player, but Ottawa should have a healthy Josh Norris, is going to get a full year from Shane Pinto, and brought in David Perron as a free agent. Like Joel Farabee earlier, Giroux seems like he’s been pushed down the depth chart. He is still a 60-point player, but I wouldn’t rely on him passing 70 points again like he did the year before, and he turns 37 years old in January. I wouldn’t outright argue with keeping him, but I would leave him off.

This comes down to Chris Kreider and Dylan Strome. This is where more context is necessary. If this is a multi-cat league, then it’s Kreider without a second thought. If it’s a points-only format, it’s a bit more of a question.

There should be concern for Strome given the team bringing in Pierre-Luc Dubois, but I’ll be honest, Strome may straight up be the better player. It all depends how the coach views him. My concern is Strome is left off the top PP unit as they try to make Dubois work, and that could cut into Strome’s upside.

I will say Kreider here, regardless of format, but if it’s points-only, I would be fine with going to Strome instead. (aug15)

13. Does anyone remember the three-way trade a few years ago between Nashville, Vegas, and Philadelphia, where former second and sixth overall picks were moved, along with a top pair defenceman on an eight-year deal and another six-foot-five right shot defenceman? 

Well, Cody Glass is the last one of them remaining in the NHL, and yesterday the Predators had to add draft picks to him to send him to the Penguins. That three-way does not look good for anyone in hindsight. 

Looking ahead at what Glass can bring to the Penguins, he's likely another third-line player, who may get glimpses in the top-six and be fantasy relevant for those brief periods. Overall, he's better off as a winger than a centre, but we'll see if the Penguins can actually figure out how to use him where the Golden Knights and Predators failed. (aug14)

14. Although we seldom see offersheets signed, and even more rarely do we see them go unmatched, we have an excellent strategic play by the Blues here that give us some hope at seeing the rare spectacle. 

The Blues signed both Dylan Holloway and Philip Broberg to offersheets, and Edmonton has one week to match (at time of writing), without enough cap space to manage keeping both – barring another move. 

The Blues are likely thinking they get one and not both, but either way would be a win for them as they pay a relatively cheap price for a former first rounder who is still developing. 

The contracts for both Holloway and Broberg are a little high for their owners in cap leagues, but neither is terrible and could be played up to with better deployment in either Edmonton or St Louis. (aug14)

15. For Bubble Keeper Week I always look at a couple of my keeper dilemmas to talk through my logic and reasoning on why I pick one player vs another. Maybe it’s the actual player analysis that helps in your case, maybe it’s the method, or maybe nothing helps and it’s entertaining nonetheless.

In my 12-team partial keeper setup with H2H Categories scoring, and a decent weight on peripherals, we have limits of six forward keepers, four defencemen, and one goalie – plus a “prospect” keeper slot that has a bunch of intricacies that aren’t worth explaining. My team lost in the finals this past year after finishing 5^th in the regular season. That means I’m squarely in a contention window and looking to keep that open.

My goalie is pretty set with Jacob Markstrom, and I am happy with his landing spot in New Jersey. He may be 35, but because only 12 goalies can be kept every year, it’s always easy to find a new one if you want.

On defence, I have Roman Josi, Darnell Nurse, Seth Jones, Erik Karlsson and Ryan Pulock who are worthy of consideration here. The first three are holdovers for me from last year and feel like easy locks again this year. The debate then between Erik Karsson and Ryan Pulock is probably not one many see a fair fight in on the surface, but suspend your disbelief for a minute and let me walk you through it.

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16. I have another smaller and more casual keeper league with some close friends that I will run through quickly. It’s a league where we can keep any six, and very close to a standard Yahoo H2H league – eight teams total.

Jack Eichel, Evan Bouchard, Jason Robertson, Brady Tkachuk, Roman Josi (my favourite player), Noah Dobson, Dougie Hamilton, Jack Hughes, Tage Thompson, Tim Stutzle, and Igor Shesterkin. I need to cut five of these players. While logic may say that Josi could be one of the cuts as an older player, this isn’t an incredibly competitive league, and I know if I give up Josi no one here is letting me get him back.

Typically I don’t like keeping goalies unless I have to because they are so much more variable from year to year, but Shesterkin is the top player at the position, and it’s impossible to say that giving up that advantage is the right call.

With Josi and Bouchard in the fold, it makes cutting Dobson and Hamilton (returning from a major injury), more palatable. If I stick with that, it means three of the six forwards have to go. Tkachuk and Robertson were the top-two ranked players of the set while playing full seasons, but Jack Eichel and Jack Hughes were right behind them while only playing 63 and 62 games respectively. Tage and Stutzle are likely on the outs here, despite being very viable options.

I’m hopeful I can work out a trade or two before the keeper deadline, but if I had to pick today, the last cut may be Eichel.

Yes, I did win that league last year. (aug14)

17. And in my one cap league that is nearly a dynasty setup, we do have to throw back a few players every year, though they’re mostly end-of-the-bench scrubs. The goalie slot is where we really have to make decisions sometimes as it’s a 24-team league, and we limit each team to two “Pro” goalie keepers (with as many minor league goalies as you would like to fit.

I finished the season with Filip Gustavsson, Elvis Merzlikins, Akira Schmid, David Rittich, and Matt Murray (TOR) as my Pro goalies. Gustavsson was traded for Vince Dunn, which left me with two slots for the remaining four. Our keeper deadline was June 30^th, so I didn’t have the insight of Schmid being traded before I had to cut him, but it didn’t change too much as he only moved from a #4 in New jersey to a #3 in Vegas.

I also didn’t know where Murray would sign, but I thought he might end up as a cheaper backup somewhere (maybe taking over from Johansson in Tampa or something). I figured I would roll the dice on him getting an opportunity rather than holding Elvis and his contract which is currently near unrosterable in cap leagues.

Rittich, as I’ll dive into later this summer, is someone I think will fare very well next season in LA, on a bargain $1 million contract to boot.

Rittich and Murray were my keepers on the June 30^th date, and after Murray signed to be the #3 in Toronto he was quickly shipped to the Joseph Woll owner for a late pick swap. (aug14)

18. And here are Brennan Des' Bubble Keeper Week players:

Brad Marchand  

Although he had been a surefire keeper for years, it seems age-related decline may have caused Marchand to lose that status. Last year’s 67-point pace represents his lowest output of the last eight years. Sure, flirting with a 70-point pace is nothing to scoff at, but over the past four seasons his point pace has gradually fallen (107, 94, 75, 67). What makes the aforementioned age effects all the more concerning is the second-half drop-off we saw last year. Marchand started out really strong with 41 points in his first 43 games but fell off considerably with just 26 in his final 39. He showed a similar pattern the year before, racking up 38 in his first 34 before posting 29 in his last 39. Considering the fantasy playoffs take place near the end of the regular season, you can’t afford to have one of your high-profile players disappear down the stretch. Unfortunately, it seems that’s the risk you’ll be running with Marchand. Now, given Boston’s lack of talent on the wings, Marchand should still see favourable deployment that allows him to remain relevant in most fantasy formats. After an offseason to rest, I think he can have another solid start to the year, but I’d be very wary of his second-half performance. That’s why I’ll probably play it safe and avoid him in fantasy leagues this year. (aug13)

19. Cole Caufield

Although he posted a respectable 65 points, many were disappointed by Caufield’s output last year – particularly in the goal scoring department. Between Martin St. Louis’ hiring in February 2022 and Caufield getting sidelined by a shoulder injury and surgery in January 2023, the small sniper racked up 48 goals over 83 games. Although he had roughly seven months to recover before the 2023-24 campaign began, feeling well enough to play and feeling well enough to thrive are two very different things. It would not surprise me at all if his recently repaired shoulder took some oomph out of his shot and left him with fewer goals than expected. There are numbers to reinforce that storyline as Caufield had scored on 14% of his shots heading into last season but ended up converting on just 9% of his attempts in 2023-24. With another full offseason under his belt, I’m optimistic that his shoulder will no longer be an issue this season. Not only does he have elite twine-tickling talent, but he’s in a great situation with the Canadiens. He’s exposed to high-end linemates in Juraj Slafkovsky and Nick Suzuki, but he also sees a high volume of action. Last year, he skated 19 and a half minutes a night while seeing 70% of Montreal’s total time with the man advantage. He finished top-10 in shots per game last year, making him all the more valuable in fantasy formats which track that stat. (aug13)

20. Carter Verhaeghe

The now 28-year-old forward produced at a high level during his first three years in Florida, pacing for 69 points in year one, 58 in year two, and 74 in year three. He reached those heights without seeing a major role with the man advantage. This past season marked the first time that Verhaeghe saw consistent minutes on Florida’s top unit and he made the most of it, registering a career-high 21 power-play points while posting a career-high 78-point pace. He’s set to see the same high-profile role this year, with continued exposure to plenty of high-end talent. Expect him to break through the 70-point mark once again. As a third-round pick from the 2013 draft, Verhaeghe didn’t receive as much attention as Florida’s other stars early in his career, but he can hang with the best of them and should be a keeper in most formats. (aug13)

21. Jordan Kyrou

Some may be concerned that Kyrou’s point pace has gradually fallen over the past three years, from 83, to 75, to 67 this past season. However, he’s just 26-years-old and hasn’t experienced any major injuries or key linemate losses recently, so I wouldn’t expect this trend to continue into the upcoming campaign. Further foundation for my optimism can be found in Kyrou’s play down the stretch following St. Louis’ coaching change. Kyrou struggled early on under Craig Berube as the two seemed to have a strained relationship. Once Drew Bannister was hired in place of Berube, Kyrou rattled off 50 points in 54 games, which translates to 75 points over 82. His fantasy stock is lower than it should be right now, but he’s a player worth keeping in most leagues. (aug13)

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