The Wild West – Core Four – Part Two

Grant Campbell

2024-08-26

Last year, we ran a four-part series on each team in the Western Conference and who we considered the Core Four.

The Core Four are the players from each roster, who should be the foundation for their team to build off of over the next three to five years.

The core should be a snapshot of the franchise at a particular time and should reflect where the team is at in terms of competing for the Stanley Cup. The ideal core should be between 22 and 27 years of age and either approaching their peak or in the midst of it.

Teams with younger cores who are still prospects, should be in their rebuild or retool phase. Teams with older cores are more than likely approaching the closing of their competitive windows and if they don’t have the younger prospects becoming potential core members they could be in trouble.

Edmonton Oilers

Connor McDavid (F) (27.6 years of age)

McDavid went from 64 goals in 2022-23 to 32 in 2023-24, but set a career-high with 100 assists. His shots on goal went from 4.3 to 3.5 per game and his shooting percentage dipped to 12.2 from 18.2 whereas his career percentage is 15.2. He is only 18 points away from reaching 1,000 in his career and in my opinion is the best player in the NHL. He has just two years remaining on his contract.

Leon Draisaitl (F) (28.8)

Draisaitl has reached 100 points five times in his career and has scored more than 50 goals three times. Since 2018-19, he has averaged between 1.28 and 1.6 points per game. The biggest question mark for him being included here is the fact that he is entering into the last year of his contract with the Oilers which is making a few Oiler fans nervous.

Evan Bouchard (D) (24.8)

Bouchard had his much-expected breakout in 2023-24, but broke out to an even higher production than most would have bet on. He ended up with 18 goals and 64 assists in 81 games and played on the power play 77.5% of the time. Bouchard adds a bit of value in multi-category leagues as he has a career-high of 95 hits and 112 blocks which makes him a potential 100/100 club member.

Zach Hyman (F) (32.2)

Hyman exploded in 2023-24 with 54 goals on 290 SOG (18.6%), after posting 36 goals in 2022-23. He led the NHL in high-danger shots on goal and 44 of his 54 goals came from there. He has four years remaining at $5.5 million AAV, which seems like a bargain now. The caveat with Hyman, is that he goes as McDavid and Draisaitl go. 

Los Angeles Kings

Quinton Byfield (F) (22.0)

Byfield broke out in 2023-24 with 20 goals and 35 assists in 80 games and had a shooting percentage of 12.4 on 161 SOG. His power play time was at 46.4% and he ended up with six PPGs and 14 PPPs. For a big player (6-5, 225 lbs), he's not overly physical as he had 66 hits in 80 games. The 2nd overall pick from 2020 has only played 179 NHL games. We could classify his 2023-24 as a first breakout as it was a little earlier than thought and could be the early signs of more production to come.

Drew Doughty (D) (34.7)

Doughty has had 50 points or more in his career five times, to go along with another four seasons of 40 points or more. Since 2009-10, he has seen his power play share fluctuate between 58.6 and 74 percent, with just one of those years below 60 percent. There has to be a time in the near future that first unit duties are taken away from him, but he is coming off back-to-back 50-point campaigns. How Brandt Clarke develops in the next year or two will have a lot to say. 

Kevin Fiala (F) (28.1)

Fiala has played two full seasons with Los Angeles now and has 145 points in 151 games after 72 and 73 points. There could be an argument for this spot to go to Adrian Kempe, but I figure that Fiala has been a more consistent point producer over his career and has four years remaining at $7.875 million AAV, compared to Kempe with two years at $5.5 million AAV.

Anze Kopitar (F) (37.0)

The wait on the decline of Kopitar's production continues after he put up 70 points in 81 games in 2023-24. There are signs that it is coming, with his SOG per game being at 1.6 which is a career-low and his ice time dipping to 19:39 per game, which is the first time he has been below 20 minutes since 2014-15. He is still such an important player to the Kings and has two years remaining at $7 million AAV. I don't think he can reach 70 points again, but thought the same after 2016-17.

Minnesota Wild

Kirill Kaprizov (F) (27.3)

Kaprizov has had three years in a row with 40 goals or more and seems just on the cusp of reaching 50 goals. His SOG per game has been between 3.6 and 3.9 and his shooting percentage has been between 15.3 and 16.6. It appears that he will need to play more than 80 games and be near the top end of those ranges to get there. In 2023-24 he had 13 goals and 22 assists in his first 36 games, but exploded for 33 goals and 28 assists in his last 39 games.

Joel Eriksson Ek (F) (27.6)

Eriksson-Ek might be the most well-rounded player on the Wild roster. He has increased his points per game every season since 2017-18 from 0.21 to 0.83 in 2023-24. He won 796 faceoffs (49.7%) and threw 169 hits while holding a 45% share of Minnesota's penalty kill time and a 68.1% share of power-play time. He could be in the running for a Selke Trophy in the next few years. He was 10th in voting in 2023-24.

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Matt Boldy (F) (23.4)

Boldy was the 12th overall pick from the 2019 draft and his 171 career points place him second overall in points in that draft class, behind only Jack Hughes (281 points). It is tempting to tie in Boldy's success so far to Kaprizov, but the truth is that Boldy can produce with almost anyone. He played with Kaprizov just over 40% of the time at even strength in 2023-24 and had a career-high 69 points in 75 games.

Brock Faber (D) (22.0)

Faber emerged as a core piece for the Wild in his rookie 2023-24 campaign where he ended up with 47 points, 65 hits and 151 blocks in 82 games. He averaged 24:58 per game and played on the power play 45.8% of the time, with that time increasing as the season progressed. It will be interesting to see how his role and ice time play out with a healthy Jared Spurgeon, who was only able to dress in 16 games last year.

Nashville Predators

Filip Forsberg (F) (30.0)

Forsberg played more than 70 games for the first time since 2016-17 as he played 82 in 2023-24 and put up an astounding 48 goals and 46 assists on 4.2 SOG/game. His prior career high for shots on goal was 247 in 2015-16, when he had 33 goals. He blew that out of the water in 2023-24 when he had 347 SOG with a 13.8 shooting percentage. He is signed for four more years at $8.5 million AAV.

Steven Stamkos (F) (34.5)

Stamkos has 555 career NHL goals and is coming off of his 7th season with 40 or more goals. Players sometimes need a few months with a new team to hit their stride and Stamkos isn't getting any younger, so there is a real threat of him faltering in Nashville. He hasn't shown many signs of slowing down as he has averaged over three shots per game over the past three years and has missed just five games in that period. He is signed for four more years at $8 million AAV.

Roman Josi (D) (34.2)

After Josi put up 23 goals and 96 points in 80 games in 2021-22, I didn't think he would break 75 points again. He went out in 2023-24 and put up 23 goals and 85 points in 82 games and proved me wrong. He had eight goals and 37 points in his first 44 games and 15 goals and 48 points in his last 38 games of 2023-24. He rightly finished in the top three for voting of the Norris Trophy. He has four years remaining at $9.059 million AAV. The contract window for this core is obviously four years but with the age of Stamkos and Josi, two years has to be more realistic.

Juuse Saros (G) (29.4)

Saros has won between 33 and 38 games in the three seasons he has become the starter in Nashville and played between 64 and 67 games in each of those years. His save percentage took a dip in 2023-24 to 90.6 and his GSAA (5.97) was the lowest it had been since 2019-20. The Predators extended him for three more years at $7.74 million AAV. Saros can let out a sigh of relief as he won't have Yaroslav Askarov breathing down his neck as he was traded to San Jose.

San Jose Sharks

Macklin Celebrini (F) (18.2)

Celebrini comes in as the first overall draft pick in 2024 and should be their best player in 2024-25. After one year at Boston University where he had 32 goals and 32 assists in 38 games, he turned pro. An interesting footnote is that Celebrini played a year with the Junior Sharks in 2019-20 as an under 14 player and had 49 goals in 54 games that year. The Sharks should know him well.

William Eklund (F) (21.9)

Eklund was the 7th overall pick in 2021 and showed some real progress in 2023-24 where he had 16 goals and 29 assists in 80 games. He had 18 points in his first 43 games and 27 points in his last 37 games. He appears to already have a spot on the first unit of the power play (64.2%) but will need to increase his shots on goal from 1.6 per game, if he wants to score more than 30 goals one day.

Tyler Toffoli (F) (32.3)

This might be a one and done for Toffoli to be on this list, but he is signed for four years at $6 million AAV. Toffoli has been on seven teams over the past five years and appears to have found a home in San Jose for the next few at least. He has had back-to-back 33 and 34 goal seasons and has had 30 goals or more three times, and 20 or more eight times. It's not ideal to have a player like Toffoli as one of your four core pieces, but the Sharks are hoping that a young player will emerge and replace him sooner than later.

Yaroslav Askarov (G) (22.2)

With just three games in the NHL under his belt, it's not often a goalie becomes a core piece on an NHL team. Askarov was dealt from the Nashville Predators to the Sharks and instantly became their hope for a starting goalie for the next five years. He was the 11th overall pick in 2020 and has had two full seasons in the AHL where he won 26 and 30 games and posted an identical 91.1 save percentage. He appears ready for the NHL but will be in front of a team who will give up a lot of goals no matter who is in net.

Thank you very much for reading and if you have any comments, please leave them below or follow me on Twitter @gampbler15

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UPCOMING GAMES

Nov 21 - 19:11 WSH vs COL
Nov 21 - 19:11 CBJ vs T.B
Nov 21 - 19:11 OTT vs VGK
Nov 21 - 19:11 DET vs NYI
Nov 21 - 19:11 BOS vs UTA
Nov 21 - 19:11 N.J vs CAR
Nov 21 - 20:11 STL vs S.J
Nov 21 - 20:11 CHI vs FLA
Nov 21 - 21:11 CGY vs NYR
Nov 21 - 21:11 EDM vs MIN

Starting Goalies

Top Skater Views

  Players Team
JASON ROBERTSON DAL
WYATT JOHNSTON DAL
DECLAN CHISHOLM MIN
JAKE WALMAN S.J
KIEFER SHERWOOD VAN

Top Goalie Profile Views

  Players Team
SEBASTIAN COSSA DET
DUSTIN WOLF CGY
MACKENZIE BLACKWOOD S.J
YAROSLAV ASKAROV S.J
IVAN FEDOTOV PHI

LINE COMBOS

  Frequency BUF Players
19.0 ALEX TUCH JJ PETERKA RYAN MCLEOD
18.6 BECK MALENSTYN PEYTON KREBS NICOLAS AUBE-KUBEL
15.8 JASON ZUCKER JACK QUINN JIRI KULICH

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