Capped: Impact of Offseason Signings, Including Stamkos, Draisaitl, and Luukkonen

Andrew Santillo

2024-09-26

Hello all and welcome back! This season, I think it's safe to say welcome back to the #1 salary cap stats and fun facts article in North America. Maybe including Europe. Possibly the world? Really though, I am so happy to be back talking hockey with all of you. Fantasy drafts are taking place all over right now and that brings optimism to all along with the chance to get together with friends and family for your leagues draft. Whether it's over Zoom or in-person, is there anything better than draft night?

For the season's first Capped, let's dive into some players that have inked new deals over the offseason. Maybe a little out of order on these signings but we'll highlight some that are news and noteworthy this week and next. Quick note, all stats listed are from last season and from Frozen Tools.

Steven Stamkos – LW – Nashville – 34 years old

Contract: $32M $8M AAV – Four years remaining – NMC

GP          G             A             PTS         PPP        TOI         PPTOI    SOG       HIT         BKS

79           40           41           81           39           18:14     3:45        262         78           44

Jonathan Marchessault – RW – Nashville – 33 years old

Contract: $22M – $5.5M AAV – Four years remaining – NMC/Modified 15 Team No-Trade

GP          G             A             PTS         PPP        TOI         PPTOI    SOG       HIT         BKS

82           42           27           69           17           17:54     3:32        266         107         26

Nashville was my favorite type of free agent frenzy team. This like when you have a short grocery list and are in-and-out of the store before the car gets a chance to cool off. Barry Trotz was smart and left himself some cap space following 2022/'23 and went out and spent off the bat. It's for that reason, that I wanted to bundle Steven Stamkos and Jonathan Marchessault, as they are both new pieces to the Predators forward group. The only argument I've heard against them is age, but I just watched Edmonton in the Cup finals who will have seven forwards over the age of 33 by season's end. I'm 34, remember, you're always "older". Never "old".

From a hockey standpoint (outside of how weird it's going to be seeing Stamkos in anything but a Bolts sweater), I loved this for Nashville. I watched every game of their round one matchup against Vancouver and while there was no doubt Vancouver was probably the better club, this was a matchup nightmare for them. This was also a series where leaving it I felt that Nashville needed something for them to happen on the power play and it shows looking back, with three of their losses in that series coming by just a one goal deficit. Now, they're going to have an excellent first power play grouping to go along with what should be a talented top six.

For fantasy Stamkos should fit in well with this group but just so we're all clear here, Nikita Kucherov doesn't play for Nashville. There's not too many players out there with that type of talent to help generate offense, but Stamkos is going to be on a good power play, with a probable good line of himself, Filip Forsberg, and Ryan O'Reilly.

As far as Jonathan Marchessault, he's a player I'd still target in drafts, but wouldn't be shocked if there was a slight decline in his production. Still, both himself and Stamkos were 40-goal scorers last season and coming in these two players had the same doubt surrounding them. I will believe that they can hit this same mark until they prove me wrong.

For the contract numbers for each player, I think they're both completely adequate. Nashville already has all of their main assets under contract, and that includes maybe most importantly Juuse Saros. This is also a club that I could see coming into next summer with probably $8M and some change ready to spend.


Leon Draisaitl – C/LW – Edmonton – 28 years old

Contract (extension): $112M – $14M AAV – Eight years remaining – NMC

GP          G             A             PTS         PPP        TOI         PPTOI    SOG       HIT         BKS

81           41           65           106         39           20:42     3:23        217         58           26

People with whom I’ve chatted that are not Oilers fans saw this and immediately thought, "What does this mean for Connor McDavid?", and while we can all see how one correlates to the other, my Oiler fan friends were ecstatic about this deal and I'm with them. This is a premier goal scorer in the NHL, and his price tag is about the goin' rate for what one of those is going to cost you. Yes, it’s a big ticket with around 16% of the cap being allocated to one player, but that player is Leon Draisaitl.

For fantasy this shouldn't change anything (outside of salary leagues, of course). His production early in playoffs was excellent, tailing off during the Cup Final but from March 1st throughout the regular season he tallied 33 points at all strengths. It's worth noting that his contract extension does not kick in until the start of next season, but either way it should not impact drafting him within likely the top five for forwards in your league. He'll be somewhere around the 40-goal mark again this season and it helps his value as well, as for most leagues he will be both C and LW eligible. Well, unless you're on ESPN and they're still twiddling their thumbs to get the forward eligibilities in place. Not much else to say here.

Sidney Crosby – C – Pittsburgh – 37 years old

Contract (extension): $17.4M – $8.7M – Two years remaining – NMC

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GP          G             A             PTS         PPP        TOI         PPTOI    SOG       HIT         BKS

82           42           52           94           23           20:05     3:35        278         101         38

A tiny, tiny part of me was worried that we were going to be here come June 2025, and we get the Sidney Crosby, "I just need to take a few weeks, talk to friends/family" article surrounding if he decides to come back to the Penguins. No surprise though, Sidney Crosby is ultimately returning to Pittsburgh on a three-year extension worth, you guessed it, $8.7AAV. Now, whatever state the Pens and Crosby are in once this contract expires is for another day, but for now this is a win for Pittsburgh. Not because this is a ride off into the sunset deal, where the player is clearly toward the end of their career, just look at the numbers Crosby put up last season. By the eye test, he looked fantastic on the power play and his shooting velocity and strength is still elite. There was a play last February where he had notched a goal off a back-handed shot well over the avg of around 60mph, so safe to say the strength is still there.

For fantasy, here's what's going to happen. Whichever platform you're on is going to have Crosby automatically towards the top. The dominos will start to fall in a relatively predictable order, but Crosby might be the one that gets overlooked. I get the age here and what he might have to work with around him, but this is still a player to target in fantasy.

I don't worry at all about him individually – he will likely be in the neighborhood of 90-95 points – I worry about the power play. The only clubs that had less power play goals than Pittsburgh last season were Chicago, Buffalo, Columbus, and Philadelphia. That's not exactly the company you want to be in when it comes to the being on the man advantage.

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen – G – Sabres – 25 years old

Contract: $23.75M – 4.75AAV – Four years remaining – M-NTC (five teams) 2026-27, 2027-28

GP          W           GAA       SV%       QS%       SO

54           27           2.57        0.910     63.0        5

I have to add a goaltender at least once, right? Let's talk Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen because there could be some substantial value here. First off, I like the contract in the aspect of the two sides avoided arbitration, even though UPL had filed for Arb on July 5th, but had gotten the contract worked out and signed by the 24th. Arbitration's can (and often times do) ruin the player-organization relationship so for both sides to avoid that is a good thing. The contract term might have a little bit of risk to it, but if UPL plays like he did at times last season, then this contract could look like a bargain very soon.

For fantasy the upside here is if UPL played as he did at points last season, particularly coming into the second half of the year where he posted a 2.07 GAA, ,924 SV%, with a GSAA of 9.20. Great numbers and this could just be a matter of he needs the consistent playing time in net to be able to work himself into a rhythm. Devon Levi might spend the majority of the year in the AHL and if that's the case, then you might be able to draft Luukkonen in later rounds to get consistent starts in net.

*Salary Cap data from PuckPedia.com  

For continued fantasy news and notes, follow me on Twitter @ndySanz.

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UPCOMING GAMES

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Starting Goalies

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KENT JOHNSON CBJ
DMITRI VORONKOV CBJ
JARED SPURGEON MIN
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JASON ROBERTSON DAL

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  Players Team
SERGEI BOBROVSKY FLA
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ELVIS MERZLIKINS CBJ
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LINE COMBOS

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24.8 YEGOR SHARANGOVICH MATT CORONATO MIKAEL BACKLUND
18.2 CONNOR ZARY JONATHAN HUBERDEAU BLAKE COLEMAN
17.7 MARTIN POSPISIL ANDREI KUZMENKO NAZEM KADRI

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