Despite the Toronto Maple Leafs icing a mostly-NHL lineup on Thursday night, Auston Matthews was not in the lineup. He left practice a couple of days ago but it was not considered a serious issue. As always, the hope with things like this is the team is just being very cautious with a key player, and that seemed to be the case as he still took part in the team's morning skate:

Matthews indeed is taking part #Leafs

— Terry Koshan 🇺🇦 (@koshtorontosun) September 26, 2024

Breathe a sigh of relief, everyone.

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Good news on the Artemi Panarin front:

Cowan said he thinks he's playing with Domi and Marner tonight. "That'll be pretty exciting." #Leafs

— Terry Koshan 🇺🇦 (@koshtorontosun) September 26, 2024

Hopefully he just needed a bit of rest and is good to go because the Rangers have had their fair share of injury scares already this preseason.

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Kaiden Guhle has resumed skating after having his appendix removed:

Welcomed news for #Habs: Canadiens say Kaiden Guhle has resumed skating and will be monitored on a daily basis after having his appendix removed.

— Frank Seravalli (@frank_seravalli) September 26, 2024

That is good news for both Guhle and the Canadiens back end.

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Carolina swapped Andrei Svechnikov and Jack Roslovic in practice:

C1 Lines:

Roslovic-Aho-Jarvis
Svechnikov-Kotkaniemi-Necas
Martinook-Staal-Carrier
Lemieux-Drury-Jost/Robinson

Slavin-Burns
Orlov-Chatfield
Gostisbehere-Walker
Smith-Ryan

Andersen
Kochetkov

— Ryan Henkel (@RyanHenkel_) September 26, 2024

Something to monitor here for those of us still waiting for the monster Svechnikov season.

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An update on Drew Doughty's status after leaving Los Angeles's preseason game on Wednesday night:

Doughty Update: Sources say #LAKings defenseman Drew Doughty sustained a left ankle injury. Initial quick x-ray showed a fracture, but he's scheduled for additional imaging today. Hope is that it is only a fracture and not additional structural damage.

Timeline TBD.

— Frank Seravalli (@frank_seravalli) September 26, 2024

As Frank mentioned, there is still not an official timeline yet. For now, expect Brandt Clarke to get a crack at the top PP unit.

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Anaheim announced that goaltender John Gibson had an appendectomy on Wednesday night and that he may not be ready for the start of the season. There is no further information than that but hopefully we get some more clarity in the next week or so.

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Nick Schmaltz was again missing from Utah practice but there is some good news:

Tourigny on Nick Schmaltz who has missed the last two practices:

"I don't think he will play this weekend. It's day to day. Tomorrow, he could maybe practice but we won't push that…I expect him to be fully available from Monday on."

— Belle Fraser (@bellefraser1) September 26, 2024

Hopefully that timeline holds, but the team did say it may be 3-6 weeks for a return. That could bring him to Halloween or later.

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We will have to wait and see an official update from Toronto, but William Nylander took an unfortunate hit to the head during Thursday’s preseason game:

the full sequence between Robertson and Nylander pic.twitter.com/DF5VIBSYXs

— Omar (@TicTacTOmar) September 26, 2024

Given Nylander’s history from the 2024 playoffs, let’s hope there’s nothing serious here.

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For today's Ramblings, we'll finish the week once again going over some of my forward point and shot projections for the 2024-25 season. Each of the last two Ramblings have covered them (here and here), and this will round out the trio.

A reminder on some of the caveats:

• Rookies are still not added – those come at the end, along with the age adjustments for all players. 
• All players are projected for 82 games played.
• Assumptions are made in regard to player roles. For example, Anthony Duclair getting L1/PP1 time for the New York Islanders alongside Mathew Barzal and Bo Horvat is a much different outlook than an L2/PP2 role.
• I won't release my full projections because Dobber has his own included with the 2024-25 Dobber Hockey Fantasy Guide that is available now in the Dobber Shop.

And with that, today I want to look at some of the younger, non-rookie players around the league. Data used for the projections comes from Natural Stat Trick and AllThreeZones.

Jack Quinn

So far in the preseason, Quinn has been seen skating on Buffalo's top power play unit. It is hard to overstate the difference between skating on the top power play unit and the second unit: over the last two seasons, the Buffalo Sabres have scored 10.6 power play goals per 60 minutes with Tage Thompson and Rasmus Dahlin on the ice, and 5.1 goals/60 with them off the ice. If things stayed equal and consistent, we are potentially looking at double the power play points, and that helps in several fantasy categories. In fact, for Quinn, that change in role brings his outlook from this:

To this:

There are issues with this fantasy outlook, of course.

The first issue is whether he holds his power play role all season, or for even a vast majority. Few players maintain the same role all year, so whether it's 90% of his time on PP1, or 60%, or 30%, makes a big difference. His 65-point outlook would depend on a PP1 role for at least 90% of the season, so if he's off PP1 by November, well, that puts 60 points in doubt.

The second issue is Quinn's shot volume. Over the last two seasons, he has managed just under 11 shots per 60 minutes with the man advantage. Among regular power play forwards in the league, that's about the middle of the pack. On top of that, if he is on the top PP unit, it's a unit with Thompson and Dahlin, and they can account for as much as 45% of the power play shot volume between the two of them. It leaves Quinn in a good spot to rack up power play assists, but not so much on the power play goal front.

Quinn is a player I've been very high on since his draft year and think he's in line for a very long, very productive NHL career. As for 2024-25, he's consistently going outside the top-175 picks, and that seems like fine value. A reminder that he racked up 12 blocks and 31 hits in his 27 games last season. If he can put up around 30 blocks and 75 hits, it does give him some peripheral coverage. He is a player worth considering around the 200^th pick.  

Leo Carlsson

In yesterday's Ramblings, we went over the outlooks for Trevor Zegras and Troy Terry, and neither was as high as I was expecting. It was discussed that once age adjustments were made to the younger players – Zegras included – that these may come up a bit. For now, this is what the projections are showing for Leo Carlsson:

When age adjustments are made, this is probably closer to around 22-23 goals, 34-35 assists, and 180-185 shots.

As mentioned in Tuesday's article, the big problem in Anaheim is the power play. In recent seasons, they haven't drawn many opportunities per game and have often struggled to score on the ones they do get. Things should get a bit better this season, but they have a long way to go, and it's hurting their fantasy upsides unless things really come together in 2024-25.

Also, Carlsson wasn't much of a volume shooter last season on a per-minute basis, so even 18:30 per game and a 10% improvement in per-minute shot rate means 185 shots as the upside. A good season would turn 185 shots into 25 goals, so seeing him at 20 goals on 170 shots isn't a shock.

Adam Fantilli

Fantilli's rookie season saw an 82-game pace of 20 goals and 25 assists, and that was skating 15:43 per game and shooting just 10.4%. However, his shot rate was in the 79^th percentile of regular forwards (at least 750 total minutes played), and that's the mark of a low-end first liner. He showed good passing data (very good for a rookie) and great controlled zone entry rates. The assumption is that he adds about a minute per game of even strength time and gets consistent top power play time. Add the excellent shot rates, improved role, and sterling puck control data, and we have this projection:

The shot volume might seem high, but as a rookie, Fantilli landed just shy of 9.0 shots per 60 minutes and that's Jack Eichel-As-A-Rookie territory. In Eichel's second season, he put up over 4.0 shots per game. Now, that was with nearly 20 minutes per contest, and Fantilli's outlook is in the 17:45 range, but that's why he's under 3.0 shots per game. If Fantilli can stay healthy, the only thing that will limit his shot volume is his role.

In strict hockey terms, Johnny Gaudreau's tragic passing influences the team's outlook, but it is worth noting that Fantilli played less than 30% of his even strength time with Gaudreau in 2023-24. The young rookie is on a team that will struggle defensively but he profiles as a superstar in the making, and is consistently being drafted outside the top-150 picks this season. I would much rather draft him than Cutter Gauthier, let's say. 

Marco Rossi

A lot of fantasy hockey fanatics, myself included, waited patiently for the season Rossi just had with 21 goals and 19 assists in 82 games. Among regular Minnesota forwards (at least 600 minutes), he trailed only Kirill Kaprizov and Matt Boldy in per-minute goal scoring at even strength. It was a good effort for a player who has had serious health issues in a few years ago.  

In fantasy hockey, though, it is hard to see Rossi taking the next step in his potential upside because of his role. The Minnesota Wild have both Joel Eriksson Ek and Ryan Hartman, and, right now, they are the unquestioned top two centres on the team. Believe it or not, Rossi was used more at even strength than either of them, on a per-game basis, but none of them reached 15 minutes in even strength time per game. My projections have Rossi falling just short of 15 minutes per game in EV TOI which, alongside secondary power play time, means his expected ice time is a little over 17 minutes per game. It isn't a lot, and Minnesota is a team that (correctly) uses its top power play unit heavily. Not having a top PP role greatly hurts his outlook, and gives us this projection:

It is the same goal total with more assists. Once we adjust for his age, this probably comes up a bit to ~23 goals and ~30 assists. That might seem disappointing, but given a secondary PP role, it would mean about 21 EV goals and 21 EV assists. For reference, that is exactly how many EV goals and assists Steven Stamkos had in 2023-24. Rossi largely being kept away from Kirill Kaprizov at both even strength and the power play is likely the difference between a ~50-point season and a ~70-point season. Roles matter. A lot.